When the Golden Knights’ season ended, one massive question surrounded the team: What happened to the offense? After finishing the regular season with the 5th most goals in the NHL, they went out with a whimper against Stuart Skinner and the much-maligned Edmonton defense.
Typically, when a team’s offense dries up, the instant focus hones in on the best players on the team. The best player on the roster, Jack Eichel, finished the series goalless and landed just 11 shots on net in five games. Especially with Stone out with an injury for a few games, the obvious question was “why won’t Jack shoot more?” The noise surrounding Eichel’s “unwillingness” to shoot reached such heights that Eichel said he is “always getting texts and messages” about it.
Then, the Golden Knights stole the summer’s headlines signing Mitch Marner. Marner posted a massive offensive season, scoring 27 goals and adding 75 assists for 102 points. He received Hart, Selke, and Byng votes, and he is widely regarded as one of the best playmakers in the NHL. The only problem with his game is that his goal-scoring tends to decrease in the playoffs because… he doesn’t shoot. Marner landed just 16 shots on goal in 13 playoff games and scored only a pair of goals.
This concern quickly rose to the forefront as a potential issue for the Golden Knights next season with Eichel and Marner heading up a revamped offense. So much so that in his introductory press conference, Kelly McCrimmon joked “somebody’s going to have to shoot.”
So, I decided to dig into the numbers a bit to see if shooting, or lack thereof, is indeed likely to be an issue for the Golden Knights next season. To do this, I relied on last season’s numbers from the regular season and playoffs. I did some simple calculations to come up with how many shots each player landed per minute last year.
Then, I needed to project forward using the new roster to turn those shots per minute into an expectation on the 2025-26 team. To simplify, I tried to give each player a round number of ice time, somewhat close to what we can expect they’ll play this season. For instance, Eichel, Marner, and Stone were given 20 minutes a night, Hertl and Karlsson 17, Dorofeyev 16, and so on. On defense, Theodore and Hanifin got 22.5 each, 20 for McNabb and Whitecloud, and 17.5 for Lauzon and Korczak. The total number of minutes allotted equals 300, or five players each playing 60 minutes. It’s an inexact science, but it’s close enough to illustrate the point.
Here’s what the numbers spit out for the regular season. Remember, this is shots per minute from last season multiplied by expected minutes this season.
Pavel Dorofeyev – 3.0
Jack Eichel – 2.9
Tomas Hertl – 2.4
William Karlsson – 2.2
Mark Stone – 2.1
Mitch Marner – 2.0
Shea Theodore – 2.0
Noah Hanifin – 1.9
Reilly Smith – 1.8
Brandon Saad – 1.7
Ivan Barbashev – 1.4
Brayden McNabb – 1.2
Zach Whitecloud – 1.1
Kaedan Korczak – 1.0
Brett Howden – 0.9
Jeremy Lauzon – 0.9
Keegan Kolesar – 0.7
Colton Sissons – 0.7
Add that all up, and the expectation is that the Golden Knights will land about 29.9 shots on goal per game. That would rank VGK 5th in the NHL, tied with the Colorado Avalanche and a minuscule 0.4 shots per game fewer than last year’s team.
In other words, it’s basically identical trading out Pietrangelo, Roy, Hague, and Pearson/Olofsson for Marner, Sissons, Lauzon, and Korczak.
But, it’s not the regular season that anyone’s worried about. It’s the playoffs.
Neither Sissons nor Lauzon played in the playoffs, so I used their regular season numbers. Everyone else is considering their playoff numbers. Again, same calculations, here’s what we get, with the number in parentheses the difference between regular season and playoffs projected.
Pavel Dorofeyev – 3.1 (+0.1)
Tomas Hertl – 2.4 (0)
Jack Eichel – 2.4 (-0.5)
Noah Hanifin – 2.3 (+0.4)
Shea Theodore – 2.1 (+0.1)
Mark Stone – 2.1 (0)
Brandon Saad – 1.6 (-0.1)
William Karlsson – 1.4 (-0.8)
Reilly Smith – 1.4 (-0.4)
Kaedan Korczak – 1.3 (+0.3)
Mitch Marner – 1.1 (-0.9)
Ivan Barbashev – 1.1 (-0.3)
Brett Howden – 0.9 (0)
Jeremy Lauzon – 0.9 (0)
Brayden McNabb – 0.9 (-0.3)
Zach Whitecloud – 0.8 (-0.3)
Colton Sissons – 0.7 (0)
Keegan Kolesar – 0.5 (-0.2)
This number comes out much lower at 26.9. That would rank 28th in the NHL, between the San Jose Sharks (26.9) and St. Louis Blues (26.7) in the regular season. In the playoffs it’s about two shots less than VGK landed in their 11 games last year, which was good for just 7th out of 16. The Stanley Cup champs put just 28.2 shots per game on net, so it definitely can be about quality over quantity.
Just four players upped their shooting production from the regular season to the playoffs and three of them are defensemen. Pavel Dorofeyev’s +0.1 was the only forward and he played in just eight of the 11 games. Eichel, Marner, and Karlsson make up for most of the decrease, which fits with the concerns many have.
All in all, if everyone matches their regular season numbers from last year, the narrative about shooting will disappear in a hurry. But, if they follow the postseason numbers, it could become a bit of a problem. Nonetheless, the idea that it’s definitely going to be a problem is certainly overblown (admittedly, a bit by me too).
Emmanuel
Though I approve of Marners signing the article makes a good point. Too many 25G/55+A guys in Marners mold. I would also add a lot of the F’s are overrated defensively & with a shaky blue line & crease I expect a BIG rise in goals against.
Emmanuel
I would like to add that this is not “overblown”.
Frank
Personally, secondary assists as a metric sucks….. Much rather it just be goals, and primary assists that count…. Assists as points would go down yes, but much more accurate as to who is producing goals. That aside….. both Marner and Eichel will need to shoot more. Hopefully the combination of the two (excellent set up men) will give each more opportunities to shoot and score……..
Emmanuel
After saves in baseball assists is the most misleading/worthless stat in sports, though you can make an argument for rebounds & stolen bases.
ThG
An assist is an assist, no need to make up imaginary names no one thinks they are worthy of. The reason VGK , and NHL, teams in general have shooting issues is due to fact that nearly every team plays same way gunking up front if net with 5players. No brainer.
Ghost Malone
I think Marner and Eichel need to be separated as they are both elite playmakers and if they change their game to complement each other who knows if it’ll work out. I think instead, marner needs to be paired with a shoot first center like Karly. Karly & Smith’s left handed sticks should pair well with Marner on the RW and would be a shutdown defensive line. Hertl and Dorofeyev on the 3rd line would be a dangerous matchup if they get O-Zone starts. I’m also hoping Howden can make another big jump and live up to the first round potential he was drafted for and get in the 25 goal range. Barbashev gets the nod on the first line for now but I’d like to see the following come playoff time:
Howden – Eichel – Stone
Smith – Karly – Marner
Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev
Barbashev – Sissons – Kolesar
Emmanuel
LW is the teams achilles heel, worse than G.
larry
Sorry for the repost if in fact it is a repost as I never saw it on my end:
I just finished watching Game 5 on NHL Network in a somewhat condensed version of the game, and viewing it actually gives me a renewed confidence heading into the season.
Hill was terrific and the team played really well defensively , and yes despite being shut out by THAT goalie they played well offensively, had a lot of good looks that they simply couldn’t cash in on, and Jack was flying around the ice, and oh by the way Shwindt was in the lineup in place of our injured Captain, man I wish we could have had the sweat of a Game 6 to see what might have been. SIGH!
Responding to Emmanuel:
1) What this team needs is what every team needs and hopes for…..A SNIPER who can put the puck in the net, they dont grow on trees but VGK actually has one on the roster Jack Eichel, he has a great one timer but also is too elite a passer as well, he needs to develop a mindset of a basketball star and become a ‘chucker’.
2) As far as who could or should be traded there are really no moveable pieces due to no move or trade clauses for many on the roster.
3) I think we should get Eichel’s signing done as he is hopefully just entering his prime and has shown he is a leader on the ice, his lack of goal scoring in the playoffs is a bit of a concern but I also attribute that to not being close to 100% in this years playoffs.
4) The blueline is a concern to me, not so much losing #7 but rather Theodore and Hanifin, both of who are signed long term and both significantly need to up their games in this and future seasons, I still strongly believe that signing #27 last year was a huge mistake.
5) Can Hill stay healthy and start 50+ games and can Schmid effectively play in 30 or so and be an effective backup? Concerns there? Most definitely!!
6) VGK will likely finish in the top 2 of the division and will add a piece or 2 at the Deadline as Front Office tries to keep that Stanley Cup window open as effectively as they can.
7) This can strictly be labeled ‘homerism’ Simpsons or otherwise but I believe we can get the final mission done of hoisting that Cup.
Last year they were fortunate to beat the Wild, but the Oiler series was closer than the lopsided 4-1 result, due in large part to Eicel, Hertl and Barbashev not recovering from the injuries they sustained during the regular season, and yes i know most feel aches and pains after the long season, but one could tell they were not themselves in the playoffs.
2 years ago if Hanifin scores late in the 3rd period from the same spot he scored in Game 2 and VGK goes up 3-0 on the stars, a deep playoff run may have been in store as the recovering Hertl and Stone would have gotten stronger after their returns from injuries. Maybe im a dreamer, but keeping the dream alive is all a part of being a sports fan.
Emmanuel
Pretty much agree with everything except for Eichel “entering his prime” which for most players is 24-28 with a big dropoff @ 32 & the Theo signing being a huge mistake, its just OK neither good or bad, he is what he is.
Larry
I can agree with you on an individual’s prime, each is unique and there are very few like a Crosby or Marchand or Ovechkin, of course these are first ballot HOF candidates, and Eichel is nowhere yet near that caliber of player.
In that same vein of a player dropping off when he is 32, I don’t want to even fathom what Shea might look like then and going forward , the reason I thought his signing was a big mistake was that he was essentially our only trade asset that may have brought in a scoring winger to have been placed on a line with Eichel.
JB
I think you just got to give Jack and Marner a chance to play together, and see how it goes. Can always make a change if it doesn’t work !
ThG
many grand juries on going, some in Florida, which means an indictment is highly likely.
ThG
we shall see.