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Hot, Cold, And William Karlsson

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The Golden Knights have been on a nice run since the All Star break, losing just one game in regulation and cementing their place in the Western Conference playoff picture.

Along the way, there have been a few big-time performers stepping up consistently helping lead VGK to goals and eventually wins. Despite all the winning though, there have been a few disappointments as well, players that will need to step up their game if the Golden Knights want to achieve the ultimate goal by season’s end. And then, there’s been William Karlsson.

We’ll start with the good.

Hot

Jack Eichel
8 goals, 6 assists, 14 points, +10 rating

There’s really no point in doing this list without starting with #9. Eichel has been on his best run as a Golden Knight since the calendar flipped to February and there are no signs of him slowing down. He’s scored goals in seven of the 12 games since the break, and has been on the score sheet with at least a point in nine.

Plus, the goals have been big ones. Eichel gave the Golden Knights a 3rd period lead against both New Jersey and Dallas, he scored twice in the 2nd period to put VGK ahead against Carolina, and his power play goal against the Flames sparked the Golden Knights’ comeback.

And on top of all of it, he just flat-out looks like the best player on the ice most nights. His powerful skating stride is breathtaking and his shotmaking ability at full speed is spectacular.

Shea Theodore
3 goals, 9 assists, 12 points, +8 rating

Theodore returned from his nasty knee injury a few days before the break. He didn’t quite look himself in those games and the results showed. Since, he’s been every bit of the dynamic puck-moving defenseman the Golden Knights knew they had when they signed him to a long-term deal four years ago.

He’s driving offense from all three zones again and putting teams on their heels with his ridiculous puck-handling ability. In the last nine games, Theodore has recorded at least four shots in five of them and he’s averaging nearly 22 minutes of ice time a night, lightening the load on Alex Pietrangelo.

Scoring from the blue line is not exactly the main focal point of the Bruce Cassidy offensive system, but when Shea is going like he is, the offense looks so much more potent.

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Dad’s Trip Success Doesn’t Have To End When Everyone Heads Home

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Once a year, in normal years, the Golden Knights bring the players’ fathers on a road trip. And once a year on that trip, the Golden Knights dominate.

The last two games in Nashville and Minnesota were the seventh and eighth games the Golden Knights have played with the dads in attendance, and they’ve won all but one. Even the one loss, in December 2019 in Vancouver, Vegas fell behind 3-1 at the end of the 1st and battled back to send the game to OT. On the four years of father’s trips, the Golden Knights are 7-0-1, they’ve scored at least four goals in seven of the eight games, and have outscored their opponents 35-16.

Dad’s trips have been especially successful for the Misfit Line. In the eight games, Jonathan Marchessault has two goals and three assists, William Karlsson has two goals and four assists, and Reilly Smith leads the pack with three goals, two assists, and a game-winning shootout attempt.

Unfortunately, father’s trips don’t last forever. For the Golden Knights though, success typically has continued even after the dads are gone.

In 2017-18 the Golden Knights had just experienced their first three-game losing streak of the season a week before the trip. That ended right before the trip with overtime and shootout wins against the Coyotes and Ducks. Returning home after the trip, Vegas lost in overtime to the Hurricanes in the first game back, then ripped off an eight-game winning streak.

The next year, 2018-19, Vegas had dropped back-to-back games in overtime before the Christmas break. With many of the fathers already in town gearing up for the trip, Vegas beat Colorado in the final game of the homestand. When the trip ended, they rattled off another four consecutive wins to push the win dad-inspired win streak to seven.

The Golden Knights came into the 19-20 dad’s trip playing well. A three-game win streak came to an end with the OT loss in Vancouver. Then, after the trip, they returned home and lost a game to the Avalanche before losing again on the road in Anaheim. But, like always, they quickly picked it up and won four straight.

6 Games After Dad’s Trip
17-18: 5-0-1
18-19: 5-1-0
19-20: 4-2-0

With the two wins in hand off the trip, VGK’s next six games set up nicely for them to continue the trend. Next up are a pair of winnable home games against the Ducks and Sharks, then a tricky one vs. Tampa followed by a winnable trip to Chicago, and closing out with home games against the Flames and Stars.

It’s a crucial stretch for the Golden Knights as the schedule really gets tough through the month of March. Riding the dad’s trip wave for as long as possible will go a long way to relieving pressure down the stretch.

Scoring Droughts Reaching Troublesome Heights

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

The Golden Knights haven’t been scoring much recently. They’re 1-5-1 in the last seven games and have scored just 15 times in those games. Six of those 15 came in the lone win which means in the previous six losses the Golden Knights have scored a total of nine goals.

The main reason for this is that the most important players on the team are not putting the puck in the net. Look at the last time each player in the top six scored a goal.

Reilly Smith – 12/31/22 – 11 games without a goal
Chandler Stephenson – 1/5/23 – 9 games without a goal
Mark Stone – 1/5/23 – 2 games without a goal (+7 games injured)
Jonathan Marchessault – 1/7/23 – 8 games without a goal
Jack Eichel – 1/12/23 – 7 games without a goal
William Karlsson – 1/24/23 – 1 game without a goal

It starts with us. There’s no secret that to win hockey games you need your best players to be your best players. We’ve got to show up and we have to find a way to produce. -Marchessault

It starts with the simple fact that these guys are shooting less. Over the past seven games, each of Eichel, Stephenson, Smith, and Marchessault have all seen their shots per game dip.

Eichel’s is the most drastic going from 3.48 on average over the course of the season to just 1.86 in the past seven games. He has just three games all season in which he’s been held shotless, two of them since Stone went out.

Stephenson’s shot totals have dipped by nearly a third too. He’s averaging 1.42 shots per game on the season and has seen just four reach the goalie in the last seven games. He does not have a single game with more than one shot on goal since January 2nd, 10 games ago.

William Karlsson, who is the only top-six player to have scored since Mark Stone’s injury is also the only one to see his shot totals increase in the captain’s absence. But, it’s up just 0.24, or about one shot on goal every four games.

Unsurprisingly, all five players mentioned above have a negative +/- over the last seven games as well. Eichel leads the charge sitting at a -8 and he’s been at least -2 in four of the last seven games.

Simply put, if the Golden Knights want to turn around their scoring, they need it to start at the top of the lineup. These five forwards are the primary players on the power play, they receive the most minutes at even strength, and many even kill penalties. If they don’t produce, the team won’t win, and that’s exactly what’s been happening lately.

Perfectly Timed Goalie Pull Helped VGK Beat St. Louis

The decision on when to pull the goalie is always a balancing act. Pull him too early and the other team could shoot one into the empty net and kill off the game. Pull him too late and you don’t give your team enough time to operate with the extra skater on the ice.

Against the Blues, the Golden Knights got exactly right, with the sixth skater recording the secondary assist on the game-tying goal within seconds of hopping over the boards.

Sometimes those work out, sometimes they don’t. Tonight, it did. -Bruce Cassidy

William Karlsson drew a penalty with 2:38 left in regulation and the Golden Knights trailing by a goal. Heading to the power play Cassidy could have opted to go directly to goalie pull to give his power play a full two minutes of 6-on-4 action. However, he chose not to.

We were not going to pull him immediately. You want to give your power play a chance. St. Louis’ PK has been just average this year so let’s give them a look early on. They’re also allowed to ice it without any repercussions so you want to be careful there. -Cassidy

Instead, after a discussion with the top players on the team, Cassidy said the decision was made to wait until about 45 seconds into the power play. It was communicated to Logan Thompson and he was ready to come out the moment the time was right.

That time was just short of a minute into the power play. Karlsson skated into the zone, received a pass, and quickly moved it to Alex Pietrangelo for a one-timer. The shot was wide but caromed perfectly to an unmarked Chandler Stephenson on the other side of the goal. Stephenson calmly tucked it into the empty net and the game was tied.

In this particular situation, the extra skater exposed the Blues’ penalty kill system which operates a bit differently than most in the NHL. Most teams utilize a 2-2 system that forms a box around the center of the ice. The Blues use a 1-2-1 in the shape of a diamond around the same area. Here’s how that looks.

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Points Aside, Vegas Could Use More Offensive Impact From Jack Eichel

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

The season couldn’t have gotten off to a much better start for the Golden Knights. They’re leading the West in points (14), the Pacific in goals allowed (16), and are top three in the conference goals scored (29). The Misfits are hot, goaltending has been consistent and captain Mark Stone looks like his old self. Most importantly, the team hasn’t suffered any significant injuries through nine games. All is well in Golden Knights world except for one slight concern, Jack Eichel.

In 156 minutes played, the $10 million center has eight points (3G/5A) in nine games for 0.88 points per game average. Not bad. In fact, Eichel’s eight points are tied for a team-best with Jonathan Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson. So, why is Eichel’s production being brought up? Simple, he’s not doing enough when you consider his importance, salary, and talent. Especially, when you compare Eichel to other players in his tax bracket.

Points By Top Highest Paid Forwards

Connor McDavid: 15 Points (8 Goals, 7 Assists)
Artemi Panarin: 12 Points (4 Goals, 8 Assists)
Auston Matthews: 7 Points (2 Goals, 5 Assists)
John Tavares: 10 Points (3 Goals, 6 Assists)
Mitch Marner: 7 Points (2 Goals, 5 Assists)
Jonathan Toews: 5 Points (4 Goals, 1 Assist)
Aleksander Barkov: 5 Points (5 Assists)
Anze Kopitar: 7 Points (1 Goal, 6 Assists)
Jack Eichel: 8 Points (3 Goals, 5 Assists)
Tyler Seguin: 6 Points (2 Goals, 4 Assists)
Johnny Gaudreau: 8 Points (5 Points, 3 Assists)
Matthew Tkachuk: 9 Points (4 Goals, 5 Assists)

Eichel is right in the middle of his peers in points and assists but he’s on the lower end of goals and one statistic that many find a good evaluation of a player’s offensive impact. While primary assists tend to get lost in statistical blenders, they should be weighted heavier than a secondary helper. Eichel has the same amount of first assists (2) as Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud. Chandler Stephenson on the other hand has four assists and they are all primary. Let’s not forget he’s tied for the most points and second amount of minutes played for a forward. In a sense, Eichel’s stat line should look more like Stephenson’s.

Sure, it’s nit-picking, but compare Eichel’s first assists with the league leaders.

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Cassidy Explains What He Wants To See Out Of Reunited Misfit Line

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Coming into the season one item of Bruce Cassidy’s agenda with the Golden Knights was to try out a lineup that separated William Karlsson, Reilly Smith, and Jonathan Marchessault.

He opened up the preseason with each of the three of them on three different lines before quickly putting Marchessault back with Karlsson to start the real games. Then, at the end of the sixth game of the year, needing a goal to tie the Avalanche, he went back to it, reuniting the Misfit Line.

The chemistry was instant and it carried over to each of the next two games against Toronto and San Jose.

They’re good hockey players and they’ve played together a lot. Last night they were good against Toronto and they just didn’t capitalize, maybe made one extra pass. They know where each other are all over the ice. I’ve told them that when you get spread out against a team that’s pressing up on you all over the ice it’s tougher to have success. So they started supporting each other better. -Cassidy

The Misfit Line was on the ice for a goal against in the 2nd period in San Jose which consisted of multiple defensive zone turnovers from the trio. It turned into a bad change and eventually a breakaway goal that gave the Sharks the lead.

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Bruce Cassidy Details His Ideal Minute And Role Distribution Among Forward Lines

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Every coach at every level in the sport of hockey wants to balance minutes equally across the entire lineup. In a perfect world, the coach could just sit back and roll four lines keeping everyone fresh and ready to play at the highest level in their next shift.

But, the NHL is not a utopia and the divide between high-end players and everyone else often causes an imbalance of ice time.

I don’t know that you should have guys up in the 20’s (minutes) that are forwards. Are you getting maximum value out of them if they are over 20 every night for 82 games? We’ll see how that plays out and how the guys who are used to that manage that. If they can pull it off and give you maximum play then I’ll change the way I think. -Bruce Cassidy

Same goes on the flip side.

We shouldn’t have anybody under 10 minutes a night. If this team is functioning as we see it, I think that 4th line would be closer to 12 minutes because they are going to play against good people, get D-zone starts, and play on the PK. -Cassidy

Historically, VGK have used their 3rd and 4th lines in checking roles, but often would see their usage sheltered with offensive zone starts and/or favorable matchups. Cassidy wants his 3rd line of William Karlsson, Brett Howden, and Michael Amadio to operate as a strong defensive line with the 4th line also taking some of the most difficult minutes.

That’s defending, that’s penalty kill, the hard minutes. We have to be careful with guys over the course of the year because of fatigue, injury, and maybe age. -Cassidy

The challenge for Cassidy though will be the abilities of the players in the bottom-six in regards to holding up to the rigors of what he called “stressful minutes.”

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Karlsson, Howden, Amadio Line Expected To Fill Defensive Role While Also Chipping In Offensively

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Since the first day of Training Camp the trio of William Karlsson, Brett Howden, and Michael Amadio have been together as a line.

Wednesday night they got their first opportunity to play in a preseason game together and it went quite well. Karlsson and Amadio each scored goals, all three players posted a Corsi of at least 70%, and in a little more than 11 minutes of ice time together they did not allow a single shot on goal against.

I think they all have good hockey IQ and good offensive instincts. They are all centermen by nature so they probably speak the same language when they are talking about plays way from the puck. -Bruce Cassidy

Last year Karlsson, Amadio, and Howden played a total of 51 seconds together. However, there were two pairs including these three guys that did see significant action together. Howden and Amadio shared the ice for 127 minutes while Amadio and Karlsson played together for 172.

Now, with all three coming together, they’ll look to capture something new, and do it while filling a much more defensive role for the team.

They are going to need to be responsible if they are put in that role. We know Karlsson can do that but the other two guys that’s a bit of a challenge for younger guys. Here’s your role on the team, can you handle it? Can you check good players and still create offense? So we’ll see how that plays. -Cassidy

As Cassidy alluded to, Karlsson remains one of the better defensive centers in the NHL and will surely make any line he’s on competent enough in the defensive zone. But, if the Golden Knights want to get to where they intend on going, they will need Howden and Amadio to take strides defensively.

The goal of most third lines, and Cassidy doesn’t seem any different, is to steal minutes from the opposing top-six to free up favorable matchups for Vegas’ top two lines.

That means this group will be seeing consistent shifts against the likes of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Anze Kopitar. And that’s just in October.

Karlsson has joked that he’s found a new group of Misfits with a pair of players who have been overlooked for good portions of their short NHL careers. It may sound a little funky and overly optimistic now, but one game in, they look the part.

Golden Knights Have What Darryl Sutter Says You Need To Win

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Calgary Flames head coach Darryl Sutter has been around the NHL for a long time. He’s heading into his 22nd season as a head coach, has won multiple Stanley Cups, led four different teams to the playoffs, and posted a winning record with every franchise he’s been with.

The change he’s had on the Flames has been impressive seeing them go from missing the playoffs to posting 111 points last season before being dispatched in the second round by the Edmonton Oilers.

Sutter is an old-school head coach. He believes in many of the long-standing traditions in the game of hockey and his no-nonsense yet almost aloof-sounding attitude makes him one of a kind. There’s no questioning his knowledge of the sport and what it takes to win in today’s game though.

Lucky for us, he’s willing to share exactly what he thinks it takes. In an extended sit-down with Sportsnet’s “The Big Show” Sutter was asked a myriad of questions about the team he currently coaches. Many of them were about his new players and the wild offseason his team just went through, but along the way he mentioned three different aspects of the game he believes a team must have to win the Cup.

Bottom line is we were not good enough at center ice. It showed up in the playoffs. The top teams in this division are three centermen deep and it really exposed us. –Darryl Sutter to Sportsnet’s The Big Show

Sutter was speaking about the importance of his team adding Nazem Kadri to go along with Elias Lindholm and Mikael Backlund.

Since the addition of Jack Eichel, the Golden Knights are strong down the middle. William Karlsson and Chandler Stephenson will likely begin the season as the next two centers, but the option to use Nic Roy or Brett Howden gives the team even more flexibility.

Historically, center has been a bit of a weak spot for Vegas with Karlsson clearly filling the role as the team’s best. With him slotting down to 2nd or even 3rd best, VGK can go toe to toe with just about anyone. Also, the Golden Knights have a nice mix of players including an insanely talented scorer, a lockdown defender, and a speedster.

Next, Sutter pointed to the blue line.

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Call Me Crazy, But…

Everyone loves a good hot take, so I’m here to provide a few of them using a format I’m borrowing from NFL Network’s Fantasy Live show. First, I’ll give my four predictions, and then I’ll share some of the best ones we got from our Discord server. Then, I want to see some from you all in the comments.

Call me crazy, but Keegan Kolesar will score more goals than Phil Kessel this season

Despite converting at a dismal 7.4% shooting rate, Kolesar still found a way to notch seven goals in his 77 appearances with the Golden Knights last year. He was constantly around the net and showed on multiple occasions he has the talent to score difficult goals. At some point, the floodgates are going to open for him and he’ll start scoring at a much more “normal” rate for NHLers. That would mean somewhere closer to 10%. I’d honestly be a bit surprised if Kolesar doesn’t hit double-digits this year and 15 or so is not out of the question.

Which brings us to the other side of the coin, Kessel. It’s mostly about the situation I expect him to find himself in as the season progresses. I just can’t see a 35-year-old suddenly committing to defense, which will lead to a decrease in minutes for a team trying to win games. He’ll probably end up struggling to get to 10 minutes and night and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he draws out of the lineup from time to time after he breaks the ironman record. His passing will still be there, so I’d suspect he can reach 30 to 40 points, which Kolesar may not, but the goal scoring is not going to jump as much as many believe.

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