Why Isn’t Jack Eichel Considered A Selke Candidate?

Hart, Vezina, Norris, Calder, Jack Adams. All of these NHL awards have pretty clear criteria for what it takes to win. Selke on the other hand is a lot more mysterious. The official description of the award is the “forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game.”

In reality, it tends to be more of a popularity contest among players who have spent most of their careers being considered defensively responsible. In the late 2000s Pavel Datsyuk of the Red Wings won three straight, then he handed it over to Patrice Bergeron who won four times in six years before winning it twice more in the early 2020s. Anze Kopitar snuck in there with a couple wins after the LA Kings’ peak, and then Aleksander Barkov took over recently winning two of the last four.

If you look up any prediction for the award this year, Barkov is a runaway favorite and it would be an incredible upset for anyone else to dethrone him. One player who is certain to fall well short in the PHWA’s vote this year is Jack Eichel.

No one wants to put him in the Selke conversation. I find that odd. There are so many good players in this league so I’m not saying he’s automatic or someone else is but he should definitely be in that conversation every year. -Bruce Cassidy

Why isn’t the best player on a Top 10 defensive team who is the first guy over the boards to kill penalties or defend against the empty net, and plays against the best lines in the league night-in night-out not considered?

There are plenty of statistical categories in which Eichel measures up well with not only Barkov but the rest of the Selke candidates.

Average Time on Ice
Marner – 21:24
Reinhart – 20:37
Eichel – 20:36
Barkov – 20:27
Hischier – 20:27

Shorthanded TOI
Marner – 161:07
Hischier – 144:16
Reinhart – 119:10
Eichel – 114:22
Barkov – 99:40

+/-
Eichel: +35
Hischier: +12
Marner: +10
Reinhart: +8
Barkov: -1

Defensive Point Shares
Eichel: 2.9
Hischier: 2.5
Reinhart: 2.3
Marner: 2.1
Barkov: 1.6

Goals Against Per 60
Hischier: 2.38
Eichel: 2.41
Reinhart: 2.57
Barkov: 2.65
Marner: 3.20

Points
Eichel: 93
Marner: 91
Reinhart: 76
Barkov: 67
Hischier: 63

So, where does Eichel fall short?

First, the most glaring number is faceoff percentage. Every single one of the last 18 Selke winners has had a faceoff percentage of at least 53%. Eichel’s number this season is just 45.6%. This year, Barkov is over 57% and Hischier is 56%. However, Reinhart’s number is a paltry 41.2% and Marner is a winger that rarely takes draws.

That’s one area but that shouldn’t preclude (Eichel) from being in the conversation. I do believe that’s an area he can improve on. If he did would it put him in the conversation? I don’t know that it would. -Cassidy

The next knock on Eichel is expected goals allowed. At even strength, Eichel allows 2.92 goals per 60 minutes. That’s actually significantly better than Marner’s 3.54, but it’s quite a bit worse than Reinhart (2.51), Barkov (2.76), and Hischier (2.84). That being said, expected goals are much different than actual goals. Eichel’s actual goals allowed rate is just 2.41 per 60, which is better than all but Hischier (2.38). Call me crazy, but I’d rather a player suppresses the puck actually going in the net rather than how often analytical models think it should.

Finally, Eichel falls a bit short in Corsi. All of the last 18 Selke award winners have had a Corsi of at least 53%. Eichel’s is just 51.6%. However, his shot share, which only counts shots on goal, is 54.1%. Like actual vs expected goals, Eichel is on the ice for more missed and blocked shots against which for some reason is considered more important than shots on goal.

The real reason Eichel is not in the conversation though, has nothing to do with numbers. Instead, it has everything to do with reputation. When Eichel entered the league he was considered an offensive savant. He played on a terrible Buffalo team for years and his defensive numbers suffered. Thus, he was never granted the label of a 200-foot player. When he came to Vegas, that began to change, especially with his dominance in the 2023 Stanley Cup run. But, West Coast game times have probably stood in the way of garnering Eichel the amount of credit he deserves.

I just don’t think people see enough of Jack the way we do here. The playoffs opened some people’s eyes for sure, he was up against Sheiffele and McDavid, and then Barkov and did a great job. -Cassidy

In the end, Eichel will likely fall well short of winning the Selke Award this season. But, his reputation is changing and for good reason. Slowly, he’s earning the moniker of a dominant defensive player, and in time, that will be more valuable to Selke voters than any number he can produce on the ice, just not yet.