What If There Was An Expansion Draft This Summer, Who Would Vegas Protect?

10 years ago, the Golden Knights took the league hostage and they’ve been cashing in dividends from it ever since. No, not literally, but many teams and specifically GM’s still kind of feel like it was more than just a figurative robbery.

The Golden Knights were the first team with the opportunity to participate in an expansion draft with updated rules designed to help them have more success than many first-year teams in the past. Don’t get it twisted, and don’t let anyone suggest otherwise; the league did not try to hand Vegas a Stanley Cup contender right out of the gate. However, the rules definitely were a bit more beneficial to the newest team than they were in the late 90’s and early 2000’s for the Predators, Wild, Blue Jackets, and Thrashers.

In 2017, the rules stated that each team was given two options to protect players. They could either select seven forwards, three defensemen, and a goalie, or eight skaters and one goalie, giving the option to protect a fourth or fifth defenseman. First and second year players were all exempt and players with no movement clauses were forced to be protected.

The Golden Knights capitalized on the Expansion Draft by taking advantage of teams in difficult spots and effectively offering them a way out. Instead of losing the player they didn’t want to give up for nothing, they could offer Vegas draft picks to take someone else. Fortunately for the Golden Knights, many teams did this… and then still gave Vegas a great player like William Karlsson, Marc-Andre Fleury, or Jonathan Marchessault.

The process was a load of fun for the league’s newest team, and Golden Knights fans are still having a blast thinking about it years later (which is why I wrote 300 words to rehash something you probably remembered already).

However, it wasn’t nearly as much fun for the teams on the giving end. For just about every team, the decision was tough, and many got it wrong. It’s partially why only five GMs who participated in the VGK Expansion Draft are still employed by that same team today.

So, what if the Golden Knights had to go through it this summer? This question was posed by friend of the site and VGK Prospect guru Jack Manning, and I completely ripped it off for the purpose of this article (I did at least tell him I was going to do it).

Must Be Protected Due To NMC
Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone, Alex Pietrangelo*

First And Second Year Players Automatically Protected
Braeden Bowman, Trevor Connelly, Kai Uchacz, Lukas Cormier, Carl Lindbom

As you can see, there’s already a conundrum in the mix for the Golden Knights. Alex Pietrangelo’s contract does not expire until the end of the 26-27 season, and because he signed a full no move clause, Vegas would be required to protect him unless he waived the clause or the league intervened.

During the 2017 Expansion Draft, there were a few similar situations to what Pietrangelo is facing now, including David Clarkson, Francois Beauchemin, Ryan Clowe, and Nathan Horton. The league made individual rulings on each player and ultimately made them all exempt from selection (even though VGK still ended up with Clarkson in a trade). For the sake of this being for fun, we’re going to continue with one list in which Pietrangelo is exempt and another in which he’s not.

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Pietrangelo Exempt Scenario (4 F, 3 D, and 1 G or 5 skaters and 1 G left)
Protected
F: Eichel, Marner, Stone, Karlsson, Barbashev, Hertl, Howden
D: Andersson, Theodore, Hanifin
G: Hart

Exposed
F: Dowd, Olofsson, Gatcomb, Holtz
D: McNabb, Lauzon, Wotherspoon, Coghlan, Heinola
G: Hill

This actually doesn’t work out too terribly for the Golden Knights. The expansion team could do VGK a favor and take Hill off their hands (which VGK might even be willing to sweeten the pot and throw in a draft pick) or the Golden Knights would likely lose a defenseman.

McNabb would probably be the most costly loss, but at the age of 35 it wouldn’t be the end of the world. VGK would then be left with a bit of extra cap space to potentially fill that hole, or they’d be able to give a player like Dylan Coghlan, Lukas Cormier, or newcomer Ville Heinola a shot.

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Pietrangelo Must Be Protected Scenario (4 F, 2 D, and 1 G or 4 skaters and 1 G left)
Protected
F: Eichel, Marner, Stone, Howden
D: Pietrangelo, Andersson, Theodore, Hanifin
G: Hart

Exposed
F: Karlsson, Barbashev, Hertl, Dowd, Olofsson, Gatcomb, Holtz
D: McNabb, Lauzon, Wotherspoon, Coghlan, Heinola
G: Hill

It gets extremely dicey in this scenario. The first choice is whether or not VGK would be comfortable losing one of their three highly paid defensemen. It’s hard to believe they’d be willing to go that route considering the massive prices they paid to acquire both Andersson and Hanifin via trade. So, if all three are protected (with Pietrangelo), it leaves a whole heap of great forwards exposed.

To start, Hertl probably wouldn’t make the cut due to the large salary demand and his play dropping off a bit last season. If he’s the one chosen, it’s not ideal, but not the end of the world.

Next, it would be painful, but Karlsson would almost have to be left exposed because he only has one year left on the deal. Protecting a 33-year-old who missed most of the season and might be willing to come back in a year anyway would be unwise.

Then it comes down to Howden or Barbashev and it’s impossible to ignore what Howden did in the postseason. At $2.5 million, he currently represents one of the best contracts in the entire NHL. There’s a strong argument that Barbashev is the better player, but losing Howden for nothing would be extremely frustrating, and he’d probably tear it up with the new team.

And yeah, I’d probably get fired just like the other 24 GMs if I made this decision.

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If you want to relive the Expansion Draft, you can with just a few clicks. First, here’s a collection of all protected and exposed players. Next, we put together a database of mock drafts both by experts and fans to show who people expected VGK to select. Here’s a list of all the injured veterans who were exempt. Finally, our takeaways from Expansion Draft night are pretty hilarious now with hindsight.