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VGK’s Path To Winning The Pacific Division

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Right now the Golden Knights currently sit in 2nd place in the Pacific Division. Well, that is if you are going by the total number of points earned in all games played so far. If you go by points percentage, the more accurate representation of where each team stands, the Golden Knights drop down to 3rd behind tonight’s opponent, the Edmonton Oilers.

Both Vegas and Edmonton are looking up at the Vancouver Canucks who have posted an incredible 71 points in the first 49 games of the season. They are on pace to finish the year with a whopping 119 points, breaking the franchise record by 2 points (the 2010-11 that went to the Cup Final).

If they are to continue playing at that pace, it’s going to be nearly impossible for the Golden Knights, Oilers, or Kings to catch them. In fact, for it to happen, Vegas would have to earn 55 of the final 64 points available on their schedule.

However, that’s not what is expected of the Canucks. Also, the Oilers have won 16 games in a row and have ripped off a record of 26-6-0 since they fired their head coach on November 12th. That’s probably not continuing either.

So, let’s look at some more realistic milestones that these teams could potentially hit and compare what the Golden Knights, and others, would have to play to match or beat them. We’ll start with the Canucks.

If Vancouver…
Play .700 (117 points)

EDM must play .786
VGK must play .831
LAK must play .900

If the Canucks tie their franchise record for points in a season and finish the season at a .700 points percentage in the final 33 games, the Golden Knights would need to record 53 of the final 64 points, playing at a .831 points percentage to tie them. For comparison, last year’s team went 22-4-5 after the All Star break. That’s a points percentage of .790, which isn’t even close. But, what if Vancouver plays a little worse?

If Vancouver…
Play .600 (111 points)

EDM must play .697
VGK must play .728
LAK must play .803

Or, what if they play much worse?

If Vancouver…

Play .500 (104 points)
EDM must play .608
VGK must play .625
LAK must play .706

It’s not just Vancouver the Golden Knights have to worry about though, Edmonton is in the mix to win the division as well. Here’s how the numbers look when considering VGK’s pace the rest of the way.

If Vegas…
Play .700 (109 points)

VAN must play .573
EDM must play .673
LAK must play .776

If Vegas…
Play .600 (102 points)

VAN must play .476
EDM must play .586
LAK must play .682

If Vegas…
Play .500 (96 points)

VAN must play .379
EDM must play .500
LAK must play .588

And finally, one more time, here’s how it all looks with Edmonton as the pace-setter.

If Edmonton…
Play .700 (111 points)

VAN must play .603
VGK must play .731
LAK must play .806

If Edmonton…
Play .600 (103 points)

VAN must play .491
VGK must play .616
LAK must play .679

If Edmonton…
Play .500 (96 points)

VAN must play .379
VGK must play .500
LAK must play .588

Put it all together, and it’s a tight race, but the Golden Knights are definitely behind. They are starting to come to health though and Bruce Cassidy teams typically dominate in the final portion of the season. So, it’s certainly not out of the question that the Golden Knights win the Pacific for the 4th time in team history, but it’s not going to be easy.

And it probably needs to start with a win tonight.

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13 Comments

  1. To quote Dandy Don… ‘if it’s and buts were candy and nuts’..bottom line whatever it will be it starts with sending the oilers a message tonight.. Go Knights Go!!

  2. Richie-Rich

    The likely outcome will be a 2nd or 3rd place finish in the division. Too many outside factors have to all come together, including another great run to the finish line. They need to not only repeat the grandeur of last year, but better that performance.

    Factors:
    The CAP is still an issue. There’s very little hope that the team has the ability to add a scoring winger. If the Penguins were to dangle Smith at half salary, he’s still not the scoring sniper that is needed and the cost to get him back would be significant. Probably no deal. Bringing back Phil the Thrill is the more likely scenario for the VGK.

    Defense has been spotty even though it has been mostly healthy this year with the exception of Theodore.

    Goaltending health and production hasn’t been stellar. Don’t get me wrong, I believe we have a great goalie tandem. Thompson hasn’t been perfect and the team hasn’t been great when he wasn’t. That is a double whammy that spells L-O-S-S-E-S.

    Eichel’s return is still questionable, although reportedly he won’t be out much longer.

    Vancouver and Edmonton are very much improved, and the Kings are also dangerous if they get good goaltending out of either of their goalies.

    It all starts tonight against a much improved and vengeful Oiler team at the Fortress. This game isn’t going to make or break us, but it would be a huge motivator to get a victory tonight and stop their streak.

    Expect a barn burner tonight!

  3. Unless it is tongue in cheek satire… please no more mention EVER of the former #8.. thank you!!!… otherwise an excellent post.

  4. Emmanuel

    The Canucks are paper tigers they will be lucky to get past the 1st round, VERY soft team. The Kings are a mid team and also kinda cobbled together. The real threat is Edmonton cause their big 2 could double handedly win a 7 game series. Tonight is a big game and VGK need a REGULATION win cause EDM have games in hand.

    • I’m guessing Rondberg was moved up to the third line with Amadio and Karlsson to be out there whenever mcdavids line is out there.

  5. JB

    Can’t remember being any more excited fora regular season win than tonight’s game. It will take a grade A effort. Hope the boys have that in them. Got to have espn+ or hula to watch it.

    • Nancy B.

      Most definitely the most exciting game to watch of the season! I didn’t get to see it! I am furious with Scripps and the local cable companies! I pay $125.00 a month for Direct TV so that I can watch the games on channel 34. I can’t afford HULU or ESPN + in addition to expensive Direct TV! What a racket! I paid $4,800 to attend all of the Stanley Cup games here in Vegas last season to see the team win the Cup. As expensive as it was, it was obviously worth every cent. As a loyal and dedicated fan from day one, I should not have to pay extra to see blackout games. Why the Hell was this game blacked out? This really sucks! I am furious with the NHL and all of their very careless management of televised games! There are tons of fans who agree with me!

      • Richie-Rich

        They didn’t black it out. This game was sold to ESPN+. It sucks, big time. I paid for the KNIGHTTIME+ streaming application and I get Ch34 through FUBO TV. For the ESPN+ games I was able to get them by using a UK VPN through nhl66.ir but even that was blocked yesterday.

        I wound up subscribing to ESPN+ just for this game, and canceled it today. Bastards. I could have gone to the game but I sold it to a relative and his son.

  6. JB

    1-1 after one. Go boys!

  7. JB

    Ditto after two. Come on boys win this thing !

  8. JB

    YESssssssss! Fuck Edmonton!

  9. As I suggested.. regardless of whether VGKhas home ice advantage or not… THE CUP goes through Vegas!! Go Knights Go!!

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