Lights out, away we go. The All Star break is over and the race to the playoffs is officially on.
As of right now, the Golden Knights sit in a fairly comfortable place among the jumbled group of Western Conference competitors.
VGK’s 62 points in 51 games have them just a point behind both Seattle and Los Angeles, while two clear of Edmonton and five past Calgary. In points percentage, the Golden Knights’ .608 is good for 2nd in the Pacific, 4th in the West, and 10th in the league.
Vegas’ schedule is certainly tougher the rest of the way than it has been to this point. With 31 games to go, Vegas will face 16 teams currently in playoff position and nine teams among the Top 10 in the league. The combined points percentage of the teams left on VGK’s schedule is .560, the toughest of the 10 teams chasing the eight playoff spots.
Remaining Strength of Schedule by Points Percentage
Vegas – .560
Nashville – .554
Winnipeg – .553
Minnesota – .546
Edmonton – .545
Colorado – .538
Calgary – .534
Seattle – .533
Los Angeles – .532
Dallas – .526
.560 equates to 92 points per game, or essentially a team right on the playoff cut line. This is much tougher than the 86 point pace average Dallas will face.
However, there’s a different way to look at it that appears much better for the Golden Knights. VGK’s .608 points percentage is better than 22 of the 31 teams remaining on the schedule. Of the 10 contending teams, that’s tied for the fourth most games against teams with inferior points percentages.
Games Against Teams With Lower Points Percentage
Dallas – 29
Seattle – 26
Winnipeg – 23
Vegas – 22
Minnesota – 22
Edmonton – 21
Colorado – 18*
Calgary – 17
Los Angeles – 17*
Nashville – 15
*COL and LAK have the same points percentage and play each other twice
The Golden Knights also play just nine games against the league’s best teams.
Games Against Top 10 Opponents
Minnesota/Nashville – 12
Edmonton – 11
Seattle/Colorado/Calgary – 10
Vegas – 9
Dallas/Winnipeg – 7
Los Angeles – 6
Where the schedule gets tough on the Golden Knights is against the middle of the league. Vegas have just nine games against the bottom 10 teams while they play 16 games against teams currently in playoff position.
Games Against Bottom 10 Teams
Edmonton/Calgary/Seattle/Dallas – 13
Colorado – 12
Nashville/Minnesota – 11
Los Angeles – 10
Vegas – 9
Winnipeg – 8
Games Against Playoff Teams
Nashville – 18
Vegas/Colorado – 16
Edmonton/Calgary/Minnesota/Winnipeg – 15
Seattle – 14
Dallas – 13
Los Angeles – 12
The computer models indicate that the playoff cut line in the Western Conference will be about 96 points. That means the Golden Knights need to amass 34 more points in the final 31 games to qualify.
There are nine games against the worst teams in the league. If the Golden Knights extract 14 points out of those games (6-1-2 or 7-2-0), they’d need to find a way to garner just 20 points in their other 22 games. Nine of those 21 are against the best 10 teams in the league with just four on home ice. Hitting at a point per game in those will be tough, but they should reasonably be able to get seven of the 18 available points. Say 3-5-1.
That leaves 13 points in 13 games against Calgary (x3), Minnesota (3x), Edmonton (x2), Nashville (2x), Colorado, Florida, and Los Angeles. If they can do that, they’re going to the playoffs.
| Games Left | SOS | Top 10 | Playoffs | Bottom 10 | Worse Pts% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 31 | 0.560 | 9 | 16 | 9 | 22 |
| NSH | 34 | 0.554 | 12 | 18 | 11 | 15 |
| WPG | 30 | 0.553 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 23 |
| MIN | 34 | 0.546 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 22 |
| EDM | 32 | 0.545 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 21 |
| COL | 34 | 0.538 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 18 |
| CGY | 32 | 0.534 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| SEA | 32 | 0.533 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 26 |
| LAK | 29 | 0.532 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 17 |
| DAL | 31 | 0.526 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 29 |
Hdbiker7851
Ken – in all do respect, l am less than certain. in fact don’t believe it means a thing, your math regardless how you cut it is not going to get the vgk to the playoff let alone to any finals for the Cup which you have posted a number of times is all that matters. Unless this bunch starts earning their pay nothing changes prior to the break. It’s one thing to loose it’s another thing not playing to potential to win. Stone out you would think someone or many would grab the bull by the horns and run, that has not been the case and you have pointed out. They need a we can’t loose attitude and that doesnt exist at the moment. They all need to step it up, putting TEAM first and come prepared to win. End of story or it will be the end of the story unless they do. Tuesday would be a good start with a win as they appear better road winners than home.
Richie-Rich
So, I see 86 points pretty much as a lock. That means the VGK has to find another 5 wins somewhere. Lose a must win and that number goes to 6, lose two of those and that number goes to 7. As you can see there isn’t a lot of room for error.
Richie-Rich
There are 31 games left in the season. 16 Away, 15 Home games. It’s interesting that we will face Seattle at home and then away for the last two games of the season!
Let’s extrapolate. To date:
VGK Home Record is 14-13 (.518)
VGK Away Record is 15-5-4 (.625 w/4pts for OTL)
If VGK can maintain their W/L pct over the final 31 games it would look like this:
Home: 8-7
Away: 12-4
End of Season 49-29-4 = 92 pts (not enough to get in)
If 96 points is the cutoff then the VGK is going to have to play better and find those extra 4 points somewhere. At the All Star Break Vegas is ranked 11th in NHL overall and is +12, but regressing…….
Game 31 @NSH(54pts,-4) 2/07 5pm. Nashville is ranked 20th in the league, but is on a 3 game winning streak. The VGK should win this game on paper. (W).
Game 30 @MIN(58pts,+13) 2/09 5pm. Ranked 14th in the NHL. TOSSUP.
Game 29 ANA(37pts, -80) 2/12 12pm. Ranked 30th in the NHL. MUST WIN.
Game 28 SJS (41pts, -39) 2/16 7pm. Ranked 28th in the NHL. SHOULD WIN.
Game 27 TBL (65pts, +34) 2/18 7:30pm.Ranked 6th in the NHL. Home game that is needed.
Game 26 @CHI (34pts, -58) 2/21 5:30pm. Ranked 31st in the NHL. MUST WIN.
Game 25 CGY (57pts, +5) 2/23 6pm. Ranked 17th in the NHL. This is a team that I believe has underperformed this season and is a lot more dangerous than its record or ranking.
Game 24 DAL (66pts, +40) 2/25 7pm. Ranked 5th in the NHL. Looking like Dallas got the better out of the coaching deal, right? VGK hopes to win on home ice. PDB would love to stick it to us.
Game 23 @COL (57pts, +18) 2/27 6pm. Ranked 15th in the NHL. Playing as well as can be expected without Landeskog. Always a threat, especially in Colorado.
Game 22 CAR (76pts, +37) 3/01 7pm. Ranked 2nd in the NHL. This team is hitting its stride at the right time and on the rise. It’s a home game that we’d like to win.
Game 21 NJD (68pts, +40) 3/03 7pm. Ranked 4th in the NHL. Another team that has been a surprise this year. Sold +/- and a legitimate Cup contender. Another home game that the VGK would like to win.
Game 20 MTL (44pts, -55) 3/05 3pm. Ranked 26th in the NHL, this is another MUST WIN game for the VGK. On paper this is 2points, but ……..(fill in the blank).
Game 19 @FLA (54pts, -5) 3/07 4pm. Ranked 21st in the NHL, I would say VGK has a good shot at winning this game except it’s the first game of a road trip in FLA.
Game 18 @TBL (65pts, +34) 3/09 4pm. Ranked 6th in the NHL. Tough one to win on the road.
Game 17 @CAR (76pts, +37) 3/11 4pm. Ranked 2nd in the NHL. Likely back-to-back losses here on the road. Can the VGK win at least 1 of the first 3 of 5 road games?
Game 16 @STL (49pts, -29) 3/12 4pm. Ranked 25th and a declared seller at the trade deadline, this is a MUST WIN on the road for the VGK.
Game 15 @PHI (51pts, -20) 3/14 4pm. Ranked 23rd in the NHL and has slipped from grace. This is another winnable game on the road for the VGK.
Game 14 CGY (57pts, +5) 3/16 7pm. Home game and winnable, but evaluating this one as a toss up. We will know a lot more about the VGK by the time we get to this game. They will either still be in the hunt or out of it altogether.
Game 13 CBJ (34pts, -67) 3/19 1pm. Ranked 32nd in the NHL. If there was ever a MUST WIN game this is it. At home against the worst team in the NHL. Should be a fun night for the fans, right?
Game 12 @VAN (43pts, -28) 3/21 7pm. This team is an enigma. Every year Vancouver is supposed to make the playoffs. There’s something wrong in Vancouver, flush it all and start over. Another MUST WIN against a down and out team, but it’s on the road……so……
Game 11 @CGY (57pts,+5) 3/23 6pm. Playing them again? In Calgary. I don’t like this matchup, especially in Calgary.
Game 10 @EDM (60pts, +25) 3/25 7pm. Ranked 12th in the NHL. Wow, back-2-back games against McDavid and Draisatl? Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me.
Game 09 EDM (60pts, +25) 3/28 7pm. See above notes.
Game 08 @SJS (41pts, -39) 3/30 7:30pm. Another no brainer MUST WIN game against the 28th ranked team in the NHL. But, on the road…. Meier and Karlsson?
Game 07 MIN (58pts, +13) 4/01 7pm. At home against the Wild? What possibly could go wrong in this game against the 14th ranked team in the NHL?
Game 06 @MIN 4/03 5pm. See above. Must win the home game first. Lose at home and it won’t look good on 3 April.
Game 05 @NSH (54pts, -4) 4/04 5pm. Started the 2nd half against this team in Nashville. How’d we do the last time? With 5 games left we can only hope that the VGK is still in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Game 04 LAK (63pts, -10) 4/06 7pm. Ranked 9th in the NHL which is a surprise for a team with a -10 GF/GA. I had predicted the Kings to win the division with Seattle in 2nd. Looks like the Pacific is going to be a photo finish this year with at least 4 or maybe in 5 teams battling it out.
Game 03 @DAL (66pts, +40) 4/08 12:30pm. These last 3 games could be either ones that define this team as a hot team going into the playoffs or one that is going to sink like a rock. Once again, this game is going to be a spotlight on McCrimmon as the VGK faces off against the Head Coach it fired at the end of last season. Lots of drama in this one. Lose this one and the last two might be meaningless.
Game 02 SEA (63pts, +26) 4/11 7pm. Front office and coaching is on the right track unlike what happened in Vegas where the front office panicked and flushed All Star Coach and Vezina Goaltender. This game and the final one will define this team for the future. The drama is going to be thick.
Game 01 @SEA 4/13 7:30pm. Last game of the season and the VGK has to hope that it doesn’t come down to this final game to get in or not.
former season ticket holder
Outstanding piece of work…I am copying your game to game thoughts and will use as a guide for the rest of the season.
VGK Fan
RR,
Great post!
I would just add https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm has VGK at a 80.4% chance of making the playoffs today.
I think that percentage is a little high myself based on their past three months performance and the Stone injury. I can only assume moneypuck sees them adding at the deadline. I just hope the Mc’s don’t mortgage the future to save their jobs. I’m not against trades at all as long as they can resign the players they acquire at the deadline. The one major problem is the farm system is ranked around 26th and they only have two players ranked in the top 100 prospects and those players are ranked in the 30’s and 70’s.
DeezNutz
I have absolutely zero faith in this team. They will probably start scoring again for a bit but after 1 off game you can expect another 10-15 game goal drought where we get to watch them learn how to score goals all over again. This team is simply no good and it’s time to start selling players off. Plus we can let Eichel enjoy the rebuild he helped start.
Emmanuel
These are the VGK. they WILL buy at the deadline. I prefer to get Domi and Barbashev but they will swing for the fences. If youre one of the top 20 teams in the league go for it.
Bobby
Use Stone’s LTIR to bring in some grit players, change the chemistry. Forecheck and get to the net. Would be nice if a goalie ‘stole’ a game once in a while.
Pistol Pete
Stone’s back has hurt this team more than any one thing going back at least as far as the MTL series where he got not a single point in six games. His back was a problem that far back maybe further. What a warrior though. Eichel too, playing down the stretch last year with a broken thumb (I know some will not agree with that!).
I am confused as to why throw this roster away when all it needs is to use Stone’s cap to rebuild the top line around Eichel? Not complicated. Somebody or multiple players need to step up in leadership roles to replace Stone. Very doable.
Pistol Pete
This team can collect another 40 pts but they need a replacement for Stone at top right wing to do it and it needs to be a big body who can get inside, snipe from anywhere and is fast enough to skate with Eichel. Can you say Timo Meier?
Pistol Pete
Mark Stone will probably decide to hang it up sad to say. Crazy to play NHL hockey following to cervical disc operations in less than a year. This team needs to replace him ASAP if it is to make the playoffs.
THE hockey GOD
“Stone’s back has hurt this team more than any one thing ”
hold on a minute, I thought it was the FO fault ??
you bozo’s can’t have it both ways. HELLO !
And you completely forgot about MAF’s big gaffes in playoffs. HELLO!
Pistol Pete
Did it occur to you it’s been Foley all along who’s been responsible? You really think Craven and McPhee did but explain to him in 2017 the risks inherent in buying veteran talent, the cost in assets, the greater risk of injury that comes with veteran players? Instead of being an outside observer, imagine yourself inside for a change and then think. Foley went into this accelerating the typical expansion team to contender process and by hiring guys who were able to exploit the expansion draft he nearly succeeded in year one. Later as the big name acquisitions came in the continuing quest to build a roster it usually takes ten years to do, he knew the risks. Foley is the FO.
THE hockey GOD
PP
who do you think calls Foley the grape stomper ??IF you read my posts you would know that.
Did Foley grab a hammer and hit Stone to get him injured ?? NO.
Foley didn’t injure a single player, HELLO WAKE UP. One of the most scattered brained posters around this joint.
FG
VGK is 16-16-4 in their last 36 games against a weaker schedule than they face the rest of the season in their final 31 games. Getting 31 points would be an accomplishment. Even if they make the playoffs, then what? Swept by Dallas. Do you think they can win a series against Seattle, LA, or Edmonton? It seems unlikely.
THE hockey GOD
another useless post that has no idea what the future holds, or what may happen to other teams.
Completely useless exercise at this point in time. It is along way from now until April/May time frame. A long way. Anything can happen.
Like firing the useless coach, and getting someone in a lot better than Cassidy the clown and his juggler act. Even push button Pete was better than this guy.
THE hockey GOD
along = a long
Galdom
RICHIE RICH,
You said the following, copied and pasted.
There are 31 games left in the season. 16 Away, 15 Home games. It’s interesting that we will face Seattle at home and then away for the last two games of the season!
“Let’s extrapolate. To date:
VGK Home Record is 14-13 (.518)
VGK Away Record is 15-5-4 (.625 w/4pts for OTL)
If VGK can maintain their W/L pct over the final 31 games it would look like this:
Home: 8-7
Away: 12-4
End of Season 49-29-4 = 92 pts (not enough to get in)”
If you are going to use words like extrapolate you should be able to do simple math. Lol
49-28-4 = 102 points not 92 points.
Pistol Pete
Lol
Jailbird
Wow! My heads spinning with all these numbers and such. I do agree we need to get a tuff scorer and a tuff checker. Then, the rest of our guys need to play up to their potential with urgency and heart. No heart, then no playoffs. I truely believe they can still do this. Playoffs that is. Starts tonight. Go boys!
coach of the North
As it is said stats are for losers, and without Stone, Eickle has proven his worth
Blitz
When I Shea Weber coming back. We have cap room. LOL
Blitz
*is*
knights fan in minny
second half starts tonight which team shows up
hdbiker7851
Always an interesting Question – let’s hopeits the one that wants to win or at very least give it their full shot.