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VGK Playoff, Division, Stanley Cup Probabilities

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The Golden Knights are in the midst of a three-game slide, the first regular season losing streak since Pete DeBoer took over as head coach back in January 2020. They’ve fallen four points behind the division-leading Avalanche but have a game in hand. Meanwhile, after dropping four points to the Wild, Vegas still hold a two point advantage on Minnesota.

With a little more than 60% of the season gone we have a pretty good idea of where everyone inside of the division stands. However, due to the division-only scheduling, comparing team to team across divisions can be a bit trickier.

That’s why I like to rely on the stat geeks. I love to keep tabs on three prediction machines that use drastically different methods to come up with their probabilities. They are MoneyPuck.com, Hockey-Reference.com’s Playoff Probabilities page, and Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic’s Playoff Projections.

We’ll start with MoneyPuck. Their model uses a game predictor based on a variety of factors such as team strength, health, home/away, rest, and even more in-depth stats like expected goals and special teams percentages. They run 100,000 simulations daily to come up with their probabilities.

Make Playoffs
VGK 99.7%

Points Projection
VGK 75.5

West Division
VGK 24.5%

Stanley Cup
VGK 7.3%

Next is Hockey-Reference. This is is very much statistical-based. Rather than trying to guess the outcomes of upcoming games, it uses every stat possible to give a percentage chance each team has to win each game. They run 1,000 simulations daily.

Make Playoffs
VGK 100%

Points Projection
VGK 74.3

West Division
VGK 26.5%

Stanley Cup
VGK 8.2%

Finally, Dom from The Athletic. He uses “Game Score” to run 50,000 projections of what will happen the remainder of the season.

Make Playoffs
VGK 100%

Points Projection
VGK 76.0

West Division
VGK 13%

Stanley Cup
VGK 4%

It shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone, but the Golden Knights are a lock to make the playoffs this season. Where they finish is a bit more of a mystery though.

Vegas is only given about a 25% chance to win the division, which feels quite low considering they’ve had the lead most of the year. Here are the remaining schedules for each team.

Golden Knights Remaining Schedule
2 vs Colorado (0 road)
3 vs Anaheim (3 road)
4 vs Arizona (2 road)
2 vs Los Angeles (2 road)
2 vs Minnesota (2 road)
3 vs San Jose (1 road)
4 vs St. Louis (2 road)

8 Home
12 Road
7 vs current playoff teams

Avalanche Remaining Schedule
2 vs Vegas (2 road)
2 vs Anaheim (2 road)
1 vs Arizona (0 road)
4 vs Los Angeles (2 road)
2 vs Minnesota (2 road)
4 vs San Jose (2 road)
4 vs St. Louis (4 road)

5 Home
14 Road
5 vs current playoff teams

The schedules are fairly comparable and Vegas have three more home games, including the two between these two teams. Call me crazy, but I’d call the West Division more of a coin flip and a 25% chance for the Golden Knights.

The Stanley Cup chance numbers remain very good for the Golden Knights. Their 8.2% at Hockey-Reference is the 4th highest in the NHL behind Colorado, Tampa Bay, and Toronto, while the 7.3% comes in 5th behind Colorado, New York Islanders, Toronto, and Carolina.

The Golden Knights remain the Cup favorites on the William Hill mobile sports app, currently going off at +450, slightly ahead of Colorado (+500), Tampa Bay (+600), and Toronto (+700).

No matter how you slice it, things look good, but not great, for the Golden Knights. They are definitely headed to the postseason, but if they don’t win beat Colorado for the West crown, they’ll potentially have four incredibly challenging matchups to win in order to hoist the Cup.

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14 Comments

  1. DOC (Go Knights Go)

    Stats and computers.

    Well all settled now.

    We make the playoffs (already knew that).

    We won’t win the division or play for the cup.

    Season is done, over, wasted, kaput!

    Computers never lie, or do they?

  2. Henderson Knights

    I think it is 100% certain that plenty of vgk fans will be pissed off at McCrimmon, PDB, and certain players at the conclusion of this season. Those are my non-advanced stats.

  3. Garbage in garbage out. They have no idea what attitude and heart play in their predictions. What was good yesterday is no guarantee how great or bad it might be today or in the future. Would l like to see them raise the Cup certainly do l believe they can not a chance. I guess time will tell who is correct. The biggest problem l see l don’t see they think they can win and with that comes it is almost a certainty they won’t.

  4. Tim

    The eye test will tell you were not a Stanley Cup contender. You can’t win with two ok lines Patch and Stone and I like Stephenson but he’s not a second line center third line with Tuch fine and add another third liner and were ok. Our fourth line pick the three best of the rest and good luck with that. My man Nosek who I’ve alway liked would be one for me and who else fill in the blanks.

    • goalie trade

      Stone and patch look awful with Glass between them. they have not scored a single point since Stephenson went out. He is the FIRST line C , Karlsson is the second line C.

      • Daryl

        He might be their FIRST line C but that doesn’t mean he IS a first line C

        • sb

          Exactly correct. He’s a winger, not a center. Better matched w/Tuch, Line 3.

  5. DOC (Go Knights Go)

    The “eye test” means nothing!

    Look at TB two years ago!

    They had a 20/20 eye test and were out in first round!

    Plus an eye test, is only in the eyes of that beholder!

  6. Ryan

    What’s the Pacific Division?

  7. sb

    The difference maker is one missing player (?Sean Monahan?) – a hi-end center for Stone/Pac. Stephenson moves to Tuch/Nosek. Roy, Glass, Carrier …… 4th line with limited minutes. Solid D, solid goalies. That’s a real Cup contender.

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