Vegas’ Torrid Offensive Start At Home Will Regress, But Not In All Areas

T-Mobile Arena has been incredible to the Golden Knights through six games this season. Vegas is one of just four teams to start the year undefeated at home and the only one to get off to a 6-0-0 start so far.

They’ve scored 34 goals, seven more than any other team on home ice. 34 goals in six games is a rate of 5.67 per game, that’s more than a goal better than the next-best team at home, Winnipeg at 4.50. VGK’s goal differential at home is +18, no other team in the league is better than +10. The Golden Knights have scored on 18.8% of their shots, 3.5% better than any other team.

Simply put, Vegas has been unstoppable offensively, and it’s been a joy to watch.

Regression is inevitable as it’s understood that Vegas will not win all 41 games, they won’t score anywhere near the 232 goals at home they are on pace for (they scored 263 in all 82 games last year), and they won’t score a goal on one in every six shots they take.

But, even though the numbers will all come back down, they probably won’t come crashing back down overnight.

Our shooting percentage is above where it would typically be over the course of a year. We are mindful of that. Yet I do believe the percentage is high because they are high percentage chances and we are close to the net. -Bruce Cassidy

VGK’s goal map agrees. Of the 34 goals, 32 have come from the faceoff circles or closer, 31 have come from inside “the house,” 17 are from directly in front of the goal, and 10 are within five feet of the goal crease.

What I like is our power play goals aren’t lucky. They’re right on top of the crease, they are second and third effort, and they’ve been very difficult for the goalie to stop. So those goals are good. -Cassidy

When examining the advanced analytics behind Vegas’ red-hot offensive start at home, things do take a bit of a turn for the worse. The most glaring number is their goals above expected tally.

On 343 shot attempts the Golden Knights have generated 19.63 expected goals. On the 181 shots that have been on goal, they’ve scored 34 times, or 14.37 over expected. For reference, this is nearly triple the next closest team at home this season. It’s an average of .80 goals above expected per period. In Vegas’ 22-game run to the Stanley Cup, one of the most dominant 5-on-5 performances in NHL playoff history, VGK averaged .24 goals above expected per period.

Almost all of the damage has been done at even strength. 12.01, 84%, of the goals above expected have come at 5-on-5. As Cassidy suggested, Vegas’ power play has been generating legitimate replicable looks that will score goals on any goal any night. They’ve scored a few more than expected but nothing over the top.

5-on-5 has been quite the opposite. The Golden Knights are currently ranked 29th in the NHL at expected goal share at 43.97%. Meanwhile, they’ve actually outscored their opponents 20-12 at 5-on-5. Vegas has allowed more shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, and high-danger chances than they’ve created at 5-on-5, ranking in the bottom half in the league in every metric.

While the Golden Knights under Cassidy have regularly outperformed the metrics, which can be expected to continue to a certain degree, it won’t continue at this pace for long. Vegas’ PDO is 1.097, the next closest is 1.070. VGK’s high-danger shooting percentage is 36.2%, which would break the record by more than 10% for the best percentage in NHL history since Natural Stat Trick began keeping the stat in 2007. Their medium-danger shooting percentage is 29.2%. The NHL average last season was a bit above 12%.

For Vegas to continue scoring anywhere near the rate they have so far, they’re going to need to step up their game at 5-on-5. They’ve won the expected goals battle once in nine games and they’ve been outshot in more than half of the games to this point.

The run has been fun and there’s no reason it has to stop tonight, but as crazy as it seems for a team averaging neatly six goals per game at home, for VGK to remain an offensive wagon, their going to have to pick it up at even strength.