Trades Are Coming, But When?

The Golden Knights acquired Dylan Ferguson on June 26th. (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

The Golden Knights are in a bit of a roster pickle. They have too many wingers, too many defensemen, and too many prospects seemingly ready to make the leap to the NHL level. Plus, there’s not a ton of wiggle room in the salary cap department.

All of it adds up to a high probability of a trade coming in the near future. Who that may be? Let’s cast that to the side for this article. Instead, let’s try to figure out when it might happen.

According to NHLTradeTracker.com, since 2010, a total of 250 trades made between April 30th and July 6th*. 106 of the 250, or 42%, happened during the two days of NHL Draft. That’s an overwhelming number as no other pair of days registers even 15% of total trades.

Only 63, or 25%, happened in the months leading up to the Draft, and just 34, or 14% happened in the days between the Draft and free agency beginning on July 1.

Here’s a full breakdown of when all trades occurred over the past nine years.

*In 2013 the Draft was on June 30th, so there is no time in between the Draft and free agency. We have extended the post draft date to July 10th for that year only*

Total
April to Draft Day – 63
Draft Day – 106
Post Draft – 34
July 1 to 6th* – 47

2018 (June 22, 23) <—NHL Draft Date
April to Draft Day – 7
Draft Day – 2
Post Draft – 6
July 1 to 6th – 2

2017 (June 23, 24)
May to Draft Day – 9
Draft Day – 6
Post Draft – 4
July 1 to 6th – 7

2016 (June 24, 25)
May to Draft Day – 10
Draft Day – 13
Post Draft – 3
July 1 to 6th – 1

2015 (June 26, 27)
May to Draft Day – 2
Draft Day – 15
Post Draft – 4
July 1 to 6th – 7

2014 (June 27, 28)
May to Draft Day – 5
Draft Day – 7
Post Draft – 4
July 1 to 6th – 5

2013 (June 30)
May to Draft Day – 7
Draft Day – 7
Post Draft – N/A
July 1 to 10th* – 14

2012 (June 22, 23)
May to Draft Day – 4
Draft Day – 14
Post Draft – 1
July 1 to 6th – 2

2011 (June 24, 25)
May to Draft Day – 7
Draft Day – 18
Post Draft – 7
July 1 to 6th – 7

2010 (June 25, 26)
May to Draft Day – 12
Draft Day – 24
Post Draft – 5
July 1 to 6th – 2

So, it’s reasonable to believe the most likely time for a trade to occur would be on June 21st or 22nd at the Draft in Vancouver.

The Golden Knights currently have nine picks. This includes a pick in each of the first five rounds, two extras in the 3rd and 5th, and no selections in the 6th and 7th.

Looking back through the trades, they really run the gamut. Player for player, player for pick, player and pick for player and pick, pick for pick, you name it, it’s happened multiple times since 2010.

So, while it is possible the Golden Knights swing a trade prior to the Draft, it’s much more likely, from a historical context, they do it later in the month or on July 1st. Either way, be ready, something’s coming eventually.