The Latest Winning Streak Is Yet Another Peak On The VGK Rollercoaster

The Golden Knights have won four straight games, and there’s understandably a lot of optimism surrounding the new direction of the team. John Tortorella has come in and won every game since he’s taken over, the team has begun scoring again (averaging 4.25 per night), and the “spirit,” “energy,” and the newest word “swag” have supposedly returned.

Now, before we get all analytical about this, let me start by saying that coaching changes have had significant impacts on many teams in the past. The current Columbus Blue Jackets are a great example as they were 19-19-7 (.500) under Dean Evason and have gone 19-8-5 (.672) since.

Everything Tortorella has been saying about the team’s “mindset” and the focus on playing with aggression has certainly led to wins, and it makes perfect sense to want to cast the rest of the season to the side and focus solely on the future. If there’s one team to break molds over their nine seasons in the NHL, it’s the Vegas Golden Knights, and who knows, maybe this year is yet another one.

However, what happened in the past with this team does still exist and there’s pretty strong reason to believe it has a chance to believe it will help paint the picture of the future as well.

The 25-26 Golden Knights have ridden a rollercoaster for the entirety of the season, and it’s the reason why they are on pace to finish with the worst regular season points percentage in team history. Through 78 games, they’ve battled through five different stretches in which they’ve lost either six out of seven or seven out of nine games. They’ve experienced nine three-game losing streaks and four separate four-game skids. On the flip side, they’ve won three straight on five different occasions, rattled off three separate four-game streaks, and even won a whopping seven straight in mid-January.

I first began tracking these ups and downs in early March when VGK won three and then lost the next three. Without skipping a single game, it actually breaks down into a really clean, see-saw-like list that defines the Golden Knights’ season. You’ve probably seen it before, because I’ve sent it on Twitter about six times in the last month, but if not, here’s how it looks as of last night’s win in Vancouver.

Lost 2 of 3
Won 4 in a row
Lost 7 of 9
Won 3 of 4
Lost 4 in a row
Won 6 of 7
Lost 8 of 9
Won 7 in a row
Lost 7 of 8
Won 3 in a row
Lost 6 of 7
Won 2 in a row
Lost 6 of 7
Won 4 in a row

This pattern is why I’ve had a difficult time chalking all of the recent success up to the coaching change. Instead, there seems to be a stronger power at play as to why the Golden Knights have gone through these rapid shifts.

It’s the schedule.

VGK’s last four games have been against Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver again. Based on this season’s standings, those teams rank 32nd, 30th, 15th, and 32nd. It’s basically gone this way the entire year.

Here’s a look at the quality of competition the Golden Knights have faced during each of these stretches.

Stretch	Combined Pts%	Average NHL Rank	% of Games vs Playoff Teams
Lost 2 of 3	.522	23.7	33%
Won 4 in a row	.559	17.8	50%
Lost 7 of 9	.603	11.8	56%
Won 3 of 4	.552	19.0	50%
Lost 4 in a row	.591	12.3	100%
Won 6 of 7	.532	19.9	14%
Lost 8 of 9	.553	19.4	33%
Won 7 in a row	.531	22.0	14%
Lost 7 of 8	.582	15.9	75%
Won 3 in a row	.474	20.3	66%
Lost 6 of 7	.611	10.1	71%
Won 2 in a row	.532	19.5	50%
Lost 6 of 7	.580	15.1	57%
Won 4 in a row	.431	27.5	25%
Final 4 games	.557	20.3	25%

If you do a little sorting (press the arrows on the top of each column) you’ll see how it almost perfectly falls in order, with the tougher stretches leading to losing streaks while the easier stretches have been where VGK have accumulated their wins.

Of course, there’s no guarantee Vegas would have won all four of these games if they had not made the coaching change, but the history of the season indicates it was pretty likely. Add in the fact that this stretch has been the healthiest the Golden Knights have been since they won the Stanley Cup, and it’s even more likely.

Even through all of its faults this year this Golden Knights team has handled their business against the league’s worst teams with consistency.

Vegas’ last four games are against Seattle, Colorado, Winnipeg, and Seattle, the teams ranked 28th, 24th, 1st, and 28th. That’s an average of 20.1. If you add in the previous four games to make an eight game stretch, the team’s average rank is 23.9. It’s the easiest eight-game stretch of the entire 82-game season by a lot and VGK are unsurprisingly cruising through it.

In the end, the most important thing for VGK is to gather up enough points to qualify for the playoffs, which is essentially guaranteed now. Next, they have a chance to win the division and earn a few more home games in the first two rounds, albeit possibly against a more difficult opponent.

But these eight games are not going to tell the story of the 25-26 Golden Knights, the playoffs will. If they’ve actually turned it around, the rollercoaster ride will have ended the moment Bruce Cassidy was thrown overboard. If they don’t, the ultimate demise will just fall into the same pattern as the rest of the year.

Winning is fun, and optimism is understandably flowing considering the timing of this latest upswing. Just be careful out there, because this is the seventh time VGK have “found their identity” this season, and in all six of the previous ones, a hard fall quickly followed.