The Case Against The Golden Knights Going All-In On Connor Hellebuyck

The latest “shiny toy” has hit the NHL trade market and, as always, the Golden Knights are rumored to be in the mix to land him. Yesterday we went over the case for why Vegas should mortgage even more of the future to go get Connor Hellebuyck from the Winnipeg Jets.

Today, we’re doing the opposite and taking a look at why VGK should steer clear of the next blockbuster trade.

Locking in the current window

The Golden Knights have been in a Stanley Cup-contending window for an entire decade. They remain in that window this upcoming season with a pair of extremely important pieces (Mark Stone and William Karlsson) set to play on the final year of their contracts. There is, of course, a real chance that once players like Stone, Karlsson, and Brayden McNabb move on from the organization, the next wave of superstars can keep the window open. However, adding Hellebuyck would make it even more difficult.

Hellebuyck is currently 33-years-old and thus likely only has a few more truly dominant seasons left in him. If Vegas adds him to the mix, they add another player in the current window that will likely not be helpful, if not outright hurtful, to the collection of players expected to carry on and open the next VGK Stanley Cup window. It will be much more difficult for Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Rasmus Andersson, and Shea Theodore to keep the Golden Knights at the top of the league if they are being weighed down by the back end of Hellebuyck’s contract, along with the missing assets spent to bring him here.

The trade of Pavel Dorofeyev was one of the first forward-looking moves that may help keep Vegas’ Cup window open even longer than it otherwise may have. Adding Hellebuyck would completely undo that.

Playoff performances

It’s hard to truly understand why, but the fact of the matter is that once the playoffs have rolled around, Hellebuyck has not been the same world-class goalie he’s proven to be in the regular season. He has failed to post a .888 or better save percentage in each of his last three postseasons, dating back to 2023, and has allowed an abysmal 3.60 goals per game over his last 23 postseason starts. The advanced stats, where Hellebuyck typically laps the competition in the regular season, suddenly become pedestrian in the playoffs.

Many players in the past have had playoff struggles and suddenly burst through, but facts are facts, and at the most important time, Hellebuyck has not come through (in the NHL, he was dynamite in the Olympics, and it was awesome). VGK wouldn’t be acquiring Hellebuyck to crush the competition in the regular season; they’d be buying him to win 16 playoff games in the same postseason at least one time before he retires. He won nine games back in 2018 before running into the Inaugural Season Golden Knights. Since, he’s never won more than six in the same playoff run, and he has more “really bad starts” than “quality starts” since 2021.

The roster build

For years, the Golden Knights have been keenly focused on building a team of two-way players. From Jack Eichel to Mark Stone, Mitch Marner to William Karlsson, even the collection of highly-paid defensemen who lean offensive, every crucial player on the roster was brought to Vegas because they have the ability to defend at a high level. Add in the fact that the Golden Knights play (and will continue to with the new head coach) a goalie-friendly zone “protect the house” defense system. The way the Golden Knights are built, they’ve proven they do not require a premier goaltender to succeed.

So, bringing in Hellebuyck could very likely not have the same impact on the ice that it would appear to on paper. Like all goalies, if high-danger chances are given up, Hellebuyck will allow goals. Meanwhile, if the puck is kept to the outside and the defensive system is humming along, Hellebuyck’s high-end talent won’t have a chance to show itself, at least compared to competent replacements. Why construct a roster of Selke candidates and run a system expected to insulate a goaltender only to then go spend a boatload of assets and money on a superstar goaltender? In theory, Hellebuyck is miles better than either Carter Hart or Adin Hill. In reality, it’s not guaranteed to look that way behind this style of team.

For Winnipeg: Vegas’ assets are not as valuable as others

If the Golden Knights were to pull the trigger on a Hellebuyck trade, they’d be doing so with the belief that this season and next season they’d be Stanley Cup favorites. Thus, the draft picks they’d be sending to the Jets would not have the same value as those of another team that less likely to advance deep in the playoffs. VGK own the New York Rangers’ 2028 1st round pick, but it’s top 10 protected, so that asset also lacks the value it could potentially have.

Add in the fact that VGK prospects have had little to no success (aside from Nick Suzuki) once they are traded, and an opposing GM has no choice but to be skeptical of players like Trevor Connelly, Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, and Juho Piiparinen.

Finally, the Golden Knights are not in a position to give up much, if any, NHL-ready quality players at this moment. Trading Connor Hellebuyck to launch a full-on rebuild is a good way to get fired as a GM. So they’ll more than likely be looking to remain competitive next season. VGK probably aren’t the best fit to find pieces to make that happen in a trade for Connor Hellebuyck.