The playoffs are here! In the first round, the Golden Knights will take on a familiar playoff foe in a rematch of the 2018 Western Conference Final, the Winnipeg Jets. The Jets locked up their spot in the playoffs a few days ago holding off Calgary and Nashville for the West’s final spot before resting most of their lineup last night in Game 82.
They enter the series playing some of the best hockey they’ve played all season winning five of the last six games they fielded a full roster including wins over New Jersey, Minnesota, Calgary, and Nashville.
Let’s dive into the stats to see how the two teams matchup in ahead of Game 1 on Tuesday.
Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points (5th)
Winnipeg: 46-33-3, 95 points (14th)
Vegas: 272, 3.32 per game (14th)
Winnipeg: 247, 3.01 per game (21st)
Winnipeg: 225, 2.74 per game (8th)
Vegas: 229, 2.79 per game (11th)
Vegas: 2587, 31.5 per game (15th)
Winnipeg: 2486, 30.3 per game (21st)
Vegas: .911 (7th)
Winnipeg: .910 (T-10th)
Vegas: 20.3% (18th)
Winnipeg: 19.26% (23rd)
Winnipeg: 82.4% (6th)
Vegas: 77.4% (19th)
Vegas: 1494 (1st)
Winnipeg: 1113 (26th)
Vegas: 1930 (13th)
Winnipeg: 1802 (21st)
As you can see, most of the overall team numbers favor the Golden Knights. The margins are fairly thin though. Despite not having the strongest defensive corps, the Jets have been good defensively allowing four fewer goals than Vegas this season. They are also excellent on the penalty kill over the course of the season, but it has dipped recently as they are killing at just 73.3% over the last 10 games and have allowed at least one PP goal in eight of their last 10.
Of course, blocks have been a huge part of the Golden Knights’ game this season. The same cannot be said about the Jets. Winnipeg block about six fewer shots per game than the Golden Knights.
On to the fancier numbers.
5-on-5 Shot Share (Corsi)
Winnipeg: 51.6% (11th)
Vegas: 48.2% (22nd)
5-on-5 Goal Share (GF%)
Vegas: 53.8% (11th)
Winnipeg: 51.8% (15th)
5-on-5 Expected Goal Share (xGF%)
Winnipeg: 51.6% (13th)
Vegas: 50.9% (16th)
5-on-5 – High Danger Shooting Percentage (HDSH%)
Vegas: 17.7 (8th)
Winnipeg: 16.1% (22nd)
All Strengths – High Danger Scoring Chance Share (HDCF%)
Vegas: 53.4% (12th)
Winnipeg: 51.9% (15th)
All Strengths – Low Danger Shots Against (LDSA)
Winnipeg: 971 (13th)
Vegas: 1058 (28th)
Again, not a ton of discrepancy and we tend to find both teams near the middle of the league in most stats. Vegas has found success without racking up strong Corsi numbers, mainly because of their willingness to allow shots from the outside.
Now for late game numbers.
Goals When Own Net Is Empty
Vegas: 7 (T-7th)
Winnipeg: 7 (T-7th)
Shots For Per 60 With Own Net Empty
Vegas: 79.4 (6th)
Winnipeg: 65.4 (19th)
Expected Goals Per 60 With Own Net Empty
Winnipeg: 6.45 (17th)
Vegas: 5.49 (27th)
Goals Allowed When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 7 (23rd)
Winnipeg: 8 (T-24th)
Goals Scored When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 14 (T-13th)
Winnipeg 13 (T-17th)
Shots Against Per 60 When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 52.7 (4th)
Winnipeg: 70.2 (18th)
Expected Goals Against Per 60 When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 4.7 (3rd)
Winnipeg: 7.0 (16th)
Analytically, the Golden Knights have been excellent in empty net situations. They are near the top of the league in allowing the fewest chances against when the opposing goalie is out and generate close to the most when their goalie is not in the net. The Jets have experienced similar results as the Golden Knights in these situations, but their underlying numbers are not as strong.
Finally, we’ll look into game state.
When Score First
Vegas: 38-5-3 (.858)
Winnipeg: 31-10-2 (.744)
When Concede First
Vegas: 13-17-6 (.444)
Winnipeg: 15-21-1 (.419)
Lead After 2nd Period
Vegas: 34-1-2 (.946)
Winnipeg: 34-2-1 (.932)
Trail After 2nd Period
Vegas: 7-16-1 (.313)
Winnipeg: 4-23-0 (.148)
Wins When Trailing At Any Point
Vegas: 18 (T-13th)
Winnipeg: 17 (T-15th)
Losses After Leading At Any Point
Vegas: 12 (2nd)
Winnipeg: 14 (T-4th)
It’s pretty clear scoring first is going to be crucial in this series. While both teams have put together their fair share of comeback wins, the Golden Knights and Jets are amongst the league’s best at holding onto leads when they get them.
So there you have it. Despite the 16 point difference in the standings, these teams are quite similar statistically… with Vegas being better, of course.
**Stats for this article were sourced from NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and MoreHockeyStats.com.**
A VGK Fan
Ken you lost all credibility in this article when you say Jets Defense “have been good defensively” when we all know their defense outside of Josh Morrissey is straight ass (yes that includes former VGK golden boy Shmitty). The only thing keeping their “defense” together is Hellebuyck playing on his head every damn game. somehow we get past him anyway, its like we are the kryptonite
Anyways, Ken, i wonder how many people pay that $3 or $7.02 monthly fee for your basic, lazy analysis that a blind man can make, you jabroni.
Wow, you are a douche.
Vgk fan, then why don’t YOU do all the research and hard work that Ken does on SINBIN?? JEEZ…
I don’t think you’ve paid much attention to the Jets this season. Their play was straight-up bad for about a month but their biggest improvement overall this season has been team defense. Their goals against per game is 3rd in the conference (better than anyone in the Pacific), and they were making Rittich look good earlier in the year. Structurally they’re way better than they were last year, their biggest problem has been their offence struggling this year, not their defensive play. Which is a difference from the last couple seasons.
A VGK Fan, what a complete piece of shit you are. What credibility do you have asshole? Fuck you!
THE hockey GOD
says another piece of shit, known as alex, tss alex, jose, obvious, and about ten other people.
THE hockey GOD
ha ha ha ha ha
what’s a jabroni ? Is that the guy who rides the zamboni?
I hear what you are saying. Ignore the haters.
I’d like to introduce you to my son’s mother.
Id like to introduce you to my son’s mother.
knights fan in minny
love it blaine
You sound like you’re a huge hit at Bar Mitzvah’s for 35 year old transgendered men.
knights fan in minny
who are you talking to
Pretty evenly matched on paper. Could be a long 1st series, but sure hope not. We’ll need to come out hard and fast to get the early edge. Best of luck!!
You do not take Stone and throw him out there into the mix in this series. It’s the playoffs and this is NOT the time to give Stone time to “get his legs under him”. He’s not on the active roster in the playoffs until 100% certain he can go and only if we are up 3-0 or 3-1 in a series.
Interesting take Richie Rich. I guess it’ll be a decision as to whether a Mark Stone at 40% is better than a Pavel Dorofeyev, Paul Cotter or Michael Amadio, that would end up sitting in favour of stone.
But, Sorvino, we’ve seen 40% Mark Stone before. Do none of you remember him gliding around the ice at the end of last season after being hurried back from surgery (by the same doctors some of you seem to have a mystical faith in) unable to reach, to stretch, to use his stick, and to bat the puck in the net from right in front? And, remember, that wasn’t playoff hockey; that was just a futile attempt to get to the playoffs.
Moreover, teams are going to take runs at him. He is going to get crushed into the boards whenever possible because playoff hockey. if he gets hurt being rushed back (Two back surgeries in nine months? Really?) and is unable to ever play again, how is that good for the franchise? It’s not fair to Stone, it’s not fair to the guys who aren’t going to get to play because we’re going to play 40% Stone, and it’s not fair to the team. (Yes, I know I shouldn’t talk about “fair” in professional sports.) Please, VGK, for once be smart about a player. Let him heal and get ready to go next year.
I don’t think this is our year (see “not-so” special teams and rebound-prone goalies), but Go Knights Go!
I hear ya Rob S. I didn’t like what 40% of Mark Stone looked like last year. At this time, though, I believe we are all just speculating. I can’t see why they would rush him for the reasons that you stated.
knights fan in minny
a whole new season the playoffs everyone is 0-0 lace them up boys
Hey Ken, thanks for the analysis as usual and keep up the good work. Looking forward to any kind of scoop or information you can provide us in the days leading up to game one.
Giddy up! Let’s go on a long run here. Nothing better than playoff hockey.
Yea, everybody settle down. Cassidy is not going to put Stone out there until he’s ready, if ever. We play the system, get solid goal play and we can go a long way!
I hate home ice advantage. It puts all the pressure on the home team to win the first two games. I hate it. It worries me we go to Winnipeg tied 1-1 and lose 2 games there.
More likely imo would be two splits returning to Vegas 2-2. That happened year 1 with the Sharks and Vegas won it in six.
Year 1 vs. the Jets was an amazing series. Winnipeg was really good that year, Marchessault thought the best remaining team. Lost the first game in Winnipeg then swept them.
Imo Cassidy has determined Dorofeyev is not bottom six material, however that may better apply to next year not this postseason due to his lack of experience and chemistry with linemates; therefore it’s possible he moves him down or scratches him. This lineup is optimal but may not apply to these playoffs (per above due to Dorofeyev’s lack of VGK experience). Imo moving Stephenson to 1 LW is the most likely scenario if Dorofeyev is moved down. Stephenson-Eichel-Stone was an excellent line up to when Stone went out injured with all linemates above or just below a point a game. Moving Stephenson from 3C would
require Roy for 3C and Howden or Bleuger for 4C.
Scratches: Cotter, Bleuger, Kolesar (seems unlikely Cassidy scratches Kolesar in which case Howden is a scratch: Amadio-Roy-Kolesar)
(6) D (avoids waiving a forward)
For D injuries call up Pachal, Korczak
Moving Dorofeyev down, Stephenson up:
Whoops I forgot Barbashev lol. Then Kolesar would have to be the scratch. Hard to imagine Amadio being scratched. To not scratch either Amadio or Kolesar means Dorofeyev which does not seem likely either.
I’m afraid it’s going to continue to take some time for Eichel to figure out how to best exploit what Dorofeyev has to offer and vice versa but because he’s the center it’s more on Eichel. We may have to wait for next season but maybe not. We’ll see. The upcoming practices heading into game 1 should be interesting.
I’m seeing a certain amount of Dorofeyev being in the slot with Eichel and Marchessault unable to set him up. It will take time to figure it out. Also an issue is the rush where Dorofeyev is achieving zone entries that are not leading to chances. Again, will take time for the chemistry.
There’s a reason with all his experience and insight Cassidy tries Dorofeyev with Smith and Karlsson and then moves him up even higher. He knows a player when he sees it. And this is not a Brandon Pirri for example.
One suggestion I have for this site is to add an edit or post delete function for the user. I make typos errors or wish to revise or delete my posts. This is actually the only message board I have ever used that does not use a user edit function.
I must say when it comes to Pirri I had forgotten how strong his AHL stats were before he moved up to the NHL. Then when he came to Vegas he got 12 goals in 31 games, good by any standard. He went downhill after that basically and that after several seasons in the NHL full time. Could that happen to Dorofeyev? It is possible. My bad re: implying there is no parallel between the two. In any case it is bullish Cassidy has given Dorofeyev this much top six time because he should know talent when he sees it.
THE hockey GOD
when you attend that identity politics game, in NHL, or any other sports event for that matter; know this. You are supporting the hidden evil agenda behind it. That includes:
– race shaming taught in our public school system
– by brain washed liberal school teachers
– gender shaming taught in our public school system
– by indoctrinated liberal school teachers
– critical race BS theory in our public school system
– by angry liberal school teachers
– transgender indoctrination of our children in public
school system by evil, stick, twisted perverted liberal school teachers.
– racially profile children in certain predetermined “target” groups
by the liberal school system.
Oh these teachers will bully the parents, pigeon hole the children
if the parents complain. Further set backing your children.
Teachers will deny this. Say it doesn’t exist. But it does exist. And
if they don’t admit it, then they are either too far buried in
their cult, brain dead, in a coma, or just plain stupid.
IT’s time to get politics out of schools system and out of our sports. WOKE-ism
is destroying this nation. And the DEMS Are the ones ushering in this evil.
Thg, since you seem to know precisely what goes on in the Public Schools, why don’t you attend some of those schools, take notes, and THEN tell all of us how EVIL teachers are.
Btw, have YOU ever witnessed this BULLSHIT you squawk about non- stop?? You’re so damn convinced all teachers are evil PEDOS and child- killers…where is your PROOF??? IS Qanon or FOX fake news your PROOF?? Come on, man, get your head out of your stinky…..brain.
THE hockey GOD
yes I have, I report facts. Not conjecture or BULL SHIT.
The only BULL SHIT here is standing in your two shoes.
you fall into the category of paragraph 3, you know it. Everyone here knows it. Either indoctrinated, brain washed, cult member, in a coma, or brain dead. Which is it ?
You condone this behavior, either you are for it or against it.
Which is it ??
Stop spinning . So far I see no condemnation in any of your posts. Therefore you are part of the problem , not part of the solution. You sick evil fucking piece of sick.
Thg, are you actually calling me a ” sick evil fucking piece of sick”??Did I get that right??
You felt libeling me for weeks wasn’t sadistic enough, so you’re amping it up???
Your acts of projection are simply astonishing. SATAN was correct: every pathetic thing YOU are, you project onto ” others”. And, clearly you have a FIXATION with Sexual Perversion, Pedophilia, Child Torture, and other perverse things. Are you a Closet Perv YOURSELF, by chance?? An open SADIST to be sure. After all, you’ve accused me of far worse. Your Projection skills are well- honed, dude. Calling ME or ANYONE a SICKO, ROTTEN PIECE OF FLESH, PEDO, BABY- KILLING, EVIL SATAN- WORHIPPER IS WHAT SICKOS LIKE YOU SAY, MISTER!!
…AND YOU DARE CALL YOURSELF A CHRISTIAN??? LIES!!!! BLASPHEMY!!!!!!!!! YOU’RE ONE EVIL GUY. AND GOD KNOWS IT. EVERYBODY KNOWS IT.
Winnipeg has a decent team I believe were better but they have one of the better goalies and we all know what happens when we play a lock down goalie. Exciting time of the year with all game matchups looking interesting. Will home ice finally work in our favor I hope so.
knights fan in minny
there d core does not impress me scmitty has lost a step his numbers are not very good the one you have to look out for is morrisey they are physical beat them with your speed
THE hockey GOD
IS THE SHROUD OF TURIN A FORGERY ?
If you believe the Shroud is a fake, then you must explain how: “whoever fabricated it before 1357 AD must have:
1) known the precise methods of crucifixion in the first century;
2) possessed the medical knowledge of a modern expert surgeon;
3) utilized an art process unknown to any great master, never duplicated before or since;
4) been able to foresee and approximate principles of photographic negativity that would not be discovered for centuries;
5) imported a piece of old cloth of Middle Eastern manufacture;
6) used a coloring agent which would be unaffected by intense heat;
7) been able to incorporate in his work details (that have only recently been discovered), that the human eye cannot see and that are visible only with the most advanced computer-scanning devices;
8.) been able to reproduce flawlessly, on a nearly flat linen surface, in a single color, undistorted 3-D characteristics of a human body in a ‘negative format’ on the tops of the threads, while conversely showing the ‘blood’ as positive and soaking all the way through.
All of this had to have been done prior to 1357, for since that date the Shroud has a clearly documented and uninterrupted history. And even now, with all the scientific and technical skills at our command, our scientists and artists cannot duplicate the Shroud,”
THE hockey GOD
3 “Blessed are the poor in spirit,[d]
for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
4 [e]Blessed are they who mourn,
for they will be comforted.
5 [f]Blessed are the meek,
for they will inherit the land.
6 Blessed are they who hunger and thirst for righteousness,[g]
for they will be satisfied.
7 Blessed are the merciful,
for they will be shown mercy.
8 [h]Blessed are the clean of heart,
for they will see God.
9 Blessed are the peacemakers,
for they will be called children of God.
10 Blessed are they who are persecuted for the sake of righteousness,[i]
for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.
note the failure to mention the pedofile party