The playoffs are here! First up for the Golden Knights are the playoff debutantes, the Utah Mammoth.
The Mammoth come into the series at the Western Conference #1 Wild Card after finishing 4th in the Central Division. Vegas and Utah matched up three times in the regular season with the Golden Knights going 1-2-0. All three games were lopsided with VGK winning 4-1 and losing 5-1 on the road while getting smoked by Utah at home 4-0.
Let’s dive into the stats to see how the two teams matchup in ahead of Game 1 on Sunday.
Record
Vegas: 39-26-17, 95 points (13th)
Utah: 43-33-6, 92 points (16th)
Goals For
Utah: 268, 3.27 per game (T-10th)
Vegas: 264, 3.22 per game (14th)
Goals Against
Utah: 240, 2.93 per game (T-10th)
Vegas: 242, 2.95 per game (12th)
Shots For
Vegas: 2378, 29.o per game (8th)
Utah: 2271, 27.7 per game (20th)
Shots Against
Vegas: 2001, 24.4 per game (2nd)
Utah: 2140, 26.1 per game (T-5th)
Save Percentage
Utah: .888 (T-17th)
Vegas: .879 (27th)
Power Play
Vegas: 24.6% (6th)
Utah: 20.0% (18th)
Penalty Kill
Vegas: 81.4% (T-7th)
Utah: 78.1% (19th)
Blocks
Vegas: 1179 (19th)
Utah: 1117 (23rd)
Hits
Vegas: 1713 (14th)
Utah: 1580 (22nd)
These teams are quite evenly matched aside from one glaring advantage for the Golden Knights. VGK are Top 10 in both power play and penalty kill with a combined total of 106% while the Mammoth are in the low teens for a combined total of 98%. Utah’s power play has been much better since the start of 2026, hitting at 24.8% but their penalty kill has dipped a bit.
Shot selection is going to be an intriguing part of this series as the Golden Knights are excellent at suppressing shots but have struggled to stop them. Meanwhile Utah, doesn’t take a ton but have a shooting percentage of 11.8% which is Top 10 in the NHL (7th). The Mammoth are also good at limiting shots against, while VGK have become more of a volume team, especially since John Tortorella has taken over.
On to the fancier numbers.
5-on-5 Shot Share (Corsi)
Vegas: 54.4% (3rd)
Utah: 52.2% (6th)
5-on-5 Goal Share (GF%)
Utah: 53.2% (10th)
Vegas: 48.8% (19th)
5-on-5 Expected Goal Share (xGF%)
Vegas: 54.0% (5th)
Utah: 52.7% (6th)
5-on-5 – High Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%)
Utah: 80.2% (26th)
Vegas: 77.5% (32nd)
5-on-5 – High Danger Shooting Percentage (HDSV%)
Vegas: 18.6% (11th)
Utah: 16.9% (23rd)
5-on-5 – High Danger Scoring Chance Share (HDCF%)
Vegas: 56.1% (1st)
Utah: 52.8% (8th)
5-on-5 PDO
Utah: 1.004 (13th)
Vegas: 0.983 (28th)
Analytically, both teams are quite good, especially considering they each finished with fewer than 100 points in the standings. Both teams control possession well but haven’t converted upon it as much as hoped. VGK’s PDO is a good indicator that the recent turn around is starting to even the numbers out, but the 104.4 PDO run they’ve been on in the last eight games is also equally unsustainable.
High danger scoring will likely tell the story of this series. VGK have struggled to stop them while Utah hasn’t take advantage of theirs offensively. In the last two weeks, VGK have stopped more than 86% of high danger chances while the Mammoth are dead last in the league stopping just 68%. On the flip side, even recently Vegas have still struggled to score them (18.8%) while the Mammoth are converting at 24.3%. That’s where playoff goals are scored.
Now let’s dive into game state numbers.
When Score First
Vegas: 23-4-7 (.779)
Utah: 30-12-2 (.705)
When Concede First
Vegas: 16-22-10 (.438)
Utah: 13-21-4 (.395)
Lead After 2nd Period
Vegas: 23-0-3 (.942)
Utah: 29-2-2 (.909)
Trail After 2nd Period
Vegas: 6-22-10 (.289)
Utah: 5-23-1 (.190)
Wins When Trailing At Any Point
Vegas: 21 (T-7th)
Utah: 17 (T-16th)
Losses After Leading At Any Point
Vegas: 14 (T-6th)
Utah: 21 (T-22nd)
Time Spent Leading
Utah: 21:33 per game (9th)
Vegas: 16:22 per game (25th)
Time Spent Trailing
Utah: 18:56 per game (15th)
Vegas: 23:58 per game (31st)
These teams have had a bit of an opposite path top open games. Utah has scored first in 63% of their games while VGK have scored first in only 41%. However, the Golden Knights have been better at clawing games back and the Mammoth have had issues with letting games slip away.
Simply put, don’t expect the team that scores first to put these games to bed easily. There will likely be lead changes a plenty in this series.
Finally, some other miscellaneous numbers that these teams either excel or struggle with.
Minor Penalties
Vegas: 226 (T-1st)
Utah: 276 (25th)
1-Goal Games
Utah: 16-11-6 (.576)
Vegas: 16-10-17 (.570)
Forced Icings
Vegas: 403 (3rd)
Utah: 385 (4th)
Coaches Challenges
Utah: 10-1 (1st)
Vegas: 6-2 (8th)
So there you have it. The Golden Knights and Mammoth are fairly evenly matched with Vegas holding a slight edge in many categories. The numbers indicate we’re likely in for a long, tight series that comes down to which team can score the big goal in the big moment. In other words… playoff hockey.
**Stats for this article were sourced from NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and MoreHockeyStats.com.**
Opinion Piece
I think highlighting 5-on-5 shooting and save percentage would have been helpful. So would have been comparing the starting goalies since each of them will play almost all the games, but that might be a different post.
And I get that you put the better team in each category on top, but it makes it really tough to follow at a quick glance when it changes so often.
Also, and I know this is being super annoying, but shouldn’t it be called “tale of the box score” instead? I know you watch all of the games, but anyone could have made this without watching any game all year.
knights fan in minny
Call me crazy in one of my brackets I have Vegas over Carolina for the Cup
TS
The Mammoth coaches are sharp! 10-1 wins on challenges–astute coach reviews, gotta watch out for that.
I have to think our Playoff experience will prevail in beating Utah, despite the season’s challenges we had. That was all during Cassidy’s watch, and now Tortorella seems to. have the answers. HOPE.
Larry
I’ll be the first to call you crazy!!…but also the first to say I hope you are right about VGK in the Cup finals!
Larry
As we are all VGK fans here, we are all in a better place mentally about our team than we were 3 weeks ago for sure.
Without a doubt a switch was turned on for whatever reasons we might think it was, the team is playing differently and more in line with what we had hoped and expected from them, and look like a contending team right now.
I temper these expectations a little bit by the teams they had been playing, notwithstanding the efforts at the avs and the &$&)$ oilers, winning is winning no matter how it is attained.
Hart has played pretty well in net overall and a good and hot goaltender can make all the difference in the playoffs, I’d just like to see him limit those big rebounds and that can certainly make a big difference.
My other concerns are Korczak, the first unit PP and the bottom 6, the latter 2 issues could be greatly improved if Hertl should ever come alive, if they are going to continue to play him on PP1, remove him from the bumper and plant his ass on the doorstep to create screens and tie up the opposing defenseman, the bumper spot creates dead weight out there, and perhaps if he finds success on the Power Play it will bring confidence yo his 5×5 play as well.
JB
My underdogs are Buffalo and the ducks. AVs and canes are the favorites I guess! But, can AVsget past the pres. Trophey curse or canes get past losing in conference finals each year?
knights fan in minny
Buffalo getting to the finals that would be a great story and good for hockey
Pistol Pete
HSK loses to Tuscon in OT (SO). Uchacz scores the lone goal assisted by Bowman/other. Lindbom in net for the 1 GA.
We’ll play Bowman like he’ll return to the roster 2026-27 (moved down to clear cap for Hart).
Connelly: 14G/34A (48 pts/45 games +2) 6’1″ 175
Lavoie: 29G/26A (55 pts/44 games +6) 6’4″ 217
Uchacz:19G/31A (50 pts/67 games +/- 0) 6’2″ 206
Connelly for sure providing his stick is ready. The other guys are big-bodied with excellent points production this season especially Lavoie 11 pts over a point a game! Lavoie and Uchacz (centerman) will both need to show well in camp and the preseason plus depends on the futures of Dowd and C. Smith.
Lindbom: 24-5-5-3 (SO) GAA 2.15/ SV% .926
Lindom’s stats speak for themselves. One of the best performances in the AHL. Depends on how well Hart does in the playoffs and the future of Adin Hill.
Good to know we have something in Henderson despite the VGK’s low prospect pool ratings. Now on to the Mammoth. GKG!!
Pistol Pete
I don’t think Torts likes to discuss the details in public but in a pre-game meeting I would expect Utah players to be addressed especially Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley. These guys will have to be contained. The speedy 40 goal Guenther is particularly dangerous.
Pistol Pete
Ken reports:
Tortorella is loading up the top line in the first practice.
Marner-Eichel-Stone
Barbashev-Howden-Dorofeyev
R.Smith-Hertl-Kolesar
C.Smith-Dowd-Sissons
Hanifin-Andersson
McNabb-Theodore
Lauzon-Korczak
Hart
Hill
I had been speculating Torts might go with Eichel and Marner together. My first thought with Marner always was with Eichel these guys stand to elevate each other’s scoring.
Pistol Pete
Should have mentioned this line scored the go ahead GWG vs. the Kraken off Marner’s tip-in and looked dangerous the rest of the game.
Howden should work with Barbashev and Pav on line 2. He was on the Stephenson-Stone line for the Cup run.
leonard wise
I don’t want to be negative since I’ve been to 4 of Torts games live. We look like a much better team. Hart has made a huge difference and our aggressive style has helped. However in fairness to Cassidy he was stuck with Hill most of the time and our third stringer. He had to play back because Hill gave up so many goals and was largely out of position leading to early deficits. Also we had many injuries. But this first round should determine Kelly’s fate. He’s the one who signed Hill to that horrible contract and was lucky Hart was available or we would be having a different conversation not to mention the Saad signing and giving up so much for Anderson. As well as Hertal who’s disappeared. So you fired Cassidy and got the coach who coached Hart good move. But as you said this team is good enough to contend. They are playing the 4th or 5th best team in the West if you include a healthy Edmonton. You changed coaches so if you don’t win this series there is no one else to blame. I believe Torts has done a good job and I am excited for the series. Let’s be honest no one was before Torts. So let’s kick ass and go on to round 2.