Tale Of The Tape: How The Golden Knights Stack Up Against The Edmonton Oilers

The Golden Knights are moving on to the Second Round and standing in their way now is a familiar foe. Vegas’ biggest rival in the NHL since San Jose fell off, the Edmonton Oilers are next up in what should be a hate-filled series.

Edmonton came from behind four consecutive times and overcame a 0-2 series deficit, beating the LA Kings in six games.

Let’s dive into the stats to see how the two teams matchup in ahead of Game 1.

Record
Vegas: 50-22-10, 110 points (3rd)
Edmonton: 48-29-5, 101 points (9th)

Goals For
Vegas: 274, 3.34 per game (5th)
Edmonton: 259, 3.16 per game (11th)

Goals Against
Vegas: 214, 2.61 per game (3rd)
Edmonton: 235, 2.87 per game (14th)

Shots For
Edmonton: 2624, 32.0 per game (1st)
Vegas: 2480, 30.3 per game (4th)

Shots Against
Vegas: 2140, 26.1 per game (4th)
Edmonton: 2214, 27.0 per game (9th)

Save Percentage
Vegas: .900 (9th)
Edmonton: .894 (16th)

Power Play
Vegas: 29.12% (2nd)
Edmonton: 23.72% (12th)

Penalty Kill
Edmonton: 78.16% (16th)
Vegas: 76.51% (24th)

Blocks
Vegas: 1267 (13th)
Edmonton: 1150 (30th)

Hits
Vegas: 1488 (27th)
Edmonton: 1241 (32nd)

Similar to the First Round series, the Golden Knights hold the edge in just about every category from the regular season. Edmonton’s massive shot total does make this a much different-looking series than Minnesota. Of course, the Oilers enter this series red-hot offensively scoring an insane 27 goals, 4.5 per game, in their six game series with the Kings. They are the leakiest defensive team remaining in the postseason having allowed 4.0 a night vs LA.

Special teams is an area to keep an eye on, as it was two years ago. Last time, the Oilers entered with the most dangerous power play in the history of the league, this year’s VGK’s had the better regular season numbers. But, Edmonton struck on 38.5% of their first round power plays while Vegas converted on just 22.2%. Vegas’ kill was stupendous, not only posting a fantastic 92.3% mark but also scoring a pair of shorthanded goals. Edmonton never had an answer for the LAK 5-forward power play look as they scored eight goals on 20 opportunities.

On to the fancier numbers.

5-on-5 Shot Share (Corsi)
Edmonton: 54.09% (4th)
Vegas: 51.2% (9th)

5-on-5 Goal Share (GF%)
Vegas: 54.3% (7th)
Edmonton: 49.56% (18th)

5-on-5 Expected Goal Share (xGF%)
Edmonton: 54.56% (3rd)
Vegas: 52.5% (6th)

5-on-5 – High Danger Shooting Percentage (HDSH%)
Vegas: 19.6% (9th)
Edmonton: 17.85% (20th)

5-on-5 – High Danger Scoring Chance Share (HDCF%)
Edmonton: 55.81 (1st)
Vegas: 52.5% (10th)

5-on-5 PDO
Vegas: 1.003 (12th)
Edmonton: 0.983 (28th)

If you are wondering why the Oilers seem to get so much love from prognosticators, it’s because of their advanced numbers. Edmonton led the league in high-danger chance share, they finished 3rd behind Carolina and Florida for expected goal share and their PDO indicated they were one of the unluckiest teams in the league this year.

Unsurprisingly, those numbers kept up against the Kings as the Oilers generated a massive 26.9 expected goals in six games, compared to Vegas’ 19.6. And even with the four straight wins and lighting the lamp seemingly at will, the Oilers still walked out of the First Round with a sub-1 PDO. VGK’s was even worse though, indicating both teams could have won the series easier than they did.

Now for late game numbers.

Goals When Own Net Is Empty
Edmonton: 9 (T-7th)
Vegas: 6 (T-17th)

Shots For Per 60 With Own Net Empty
Vegas: 70.8 (8th)
Edmonton: 69.8 (9th)

Expected Goals Per 60 With Own Net Empty
Edmonton: 9.78 (3rd)
Vegas: 7.51 (12th)

Goals Allowed When Opposition Net Empty
Edmonton: 4 (T-5th)
Vegas: 6 (T-10th)

Goals Scored When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 22 (T-5th)
Edmonton: 12 (T-26th)

Shots Against Per 60 When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 54.8 (9th)
Edmonton: 64.9 (19th)

Expected Goals Against Per 60 When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 6.41 (8th)
Edmonton: 7.32 (18th)

The Oilers are extremely dangerous late in games when chasing a goal. Their 3rd overall xG rate indicates they didn’t even finish as many as they could have either. Edmonton scored three times with their own net empty against the Kings and made closing games out a living hell.

VGK, on the flip side, were excellent defending against the empty net in the series with the Wild. Minnesota landed just two shots on goal in 3:12 of empty net time  and did not generate a single high-danger chance.

Finally, we’ll look into game state.

When Score First
Edmonton: 30-8-5 (.698)
Vegas: 28-8-8 (.636)

When Concede First
Vegas: 22-14-2 (.579)
Edmonton: 18-21-0 (.462)

Lead After 2nd Period
Edmonton: 34-2-3 (.872)
Vegas: 31-4-3 (.816)

Trail After 2nd Period
Vegas: 8-16-2 (.308)
Edmonton: 4-21-0 (.160)

Wins When Trailing At Any Point
Vegas: 24 (T-2nd)
Edmonton: 19 (T-11th)

Losses After Leading At Any Point
Edmtonton: 17 (T-15th)
Vegas: 17 (T-15th)

Time Spent Leading
Vegas: 23:57 per game (3rd)
Edmonton: 21:12 per game (11th)

The Oilers have been the comeback kings of the postseason so far. In Game 1 they trailed by four goals and fought all the way back to tie it before conceding again and falling short. But they then overcame deficits in each of the final four games of the series, all in which they won. Their four comeback wins are double anyone else in the playoffs thus far.

As for the VGK series, the team that scored first won all six games between Vegas and Minnesota. Two years ago, Edmonton scored first in each of the first five games of the series, three of which the Golden Knights came back to win.

So there you have it. This is a fairly evenly matched series but the numbers from the regular season definitely seem to favor the Golden Knights slightly. Both teams should be reasonably healthy to start, so expect a war.

**Stats for this article were sourced from NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and MoreHockeyStats.com.**