(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)
As the Golden Knights head into the Western Conference Final for the fourth time in six seasons, they meet a familiar foe, the Pete DeBoer coached Dallas Stars. Dallas had a strong regular season leading the Central division for most of the season but fell to 2nd place after dropping 8 of 10 games around the All Star break.
They got off to a slow start in the playoffs falling behind the Minnesota Wild 2-1. However, they then rattled off three wins including two beatdowns to clinch their place in the second round. They once again fell behind to the Seattle Kraken, again losing Games 1 and 3. Dallas stormed back with a pair of dominant victories in Games 4 and 5 but were forced to go to Game 7. They shutout the Kraken for all but the final 19 seconds and moved DeBoer’s Game 7 record to 7-0 all time.
The Stars swept the Golden Knights in the regular season thank to a pair of shootout wins. The only resounding victory was a 4-0 win at T-Mobile Arena in January, one of just two times VGK were shutout this season. The Golden Knights blew three leads in the two shootout games, scoring first in each game.
Let’s dive into the stats to see how the two teams matchup in ahead of Game 1 on Friday.
Record
Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points (5th)
Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points (8th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 8-3
Dallas: 8-5
Goals For
Dallas: 281, 3.52 per game (7th)
Vegas: 272, 3.32 per game (14th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 41, 3.73 per game (2nd)
Dallas: 47, 3.62 per game (5th)
Goals Against
Dallas: 215, 2.62 per game (3rd)
Vegas: 225, 2.74 per game (11th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 33, 3.00 per game (5th)
Dallas: 40, 3.08 per game (6th)
Shots For
Dallas: 2616, 31.9 per game (14th)
Vegas: 2587, 31.5 per game (15th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 336, 30.5 per game (11th)
Dallas: 384, 29.6 per game (12th)
Save Percentage
Dallas: .912 (6th)
Vegas: .911 (7th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: .907 (6th)
Dallas: .901 (13th)
Shooting Percentage
Dallas: 10.7% (7th)
Vegas: 10.3% (T-12th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 11.9% (1st)
Dallas: 10.3% (2nd)
Power Play
Dallas: 25.0% (5th)
Vegas: 20.3% (18th)
*Playoffs*
Dallas: 31.7% (5th)
Vegas: 17.5% (12th)
Penalty Kill
Dallas: 83.5% (3rd)
Vegas: 77.4% (19th)
*Playoffs*
Dallas: 83.3% (3rd)
Vegas: 60.0% (15th)
Blocks
Vegas: 1494, 17.9 per 60 (1st)
Dallas: 1151, 13.8 per 60 (22nd)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 226, 19.2 per 60 (2nd)
Dallas: 210, 15.2 per 60 (13th)
Hits
Vegas: 1930, 23.2 per 60 (13th)
Dallas: 1648, 19.8 per 60 (26th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 391, 34.3 per 60 (11th)
Dallas: 367, 26.7 per 60 (16th)
In the regular season, Dallas were better than Vegas in just about every significant statistic aside from wins. They scored more, allowed fewer, and were better in both special teams. The numbers have evened out in the playoffs as VGK have picked up their goal scoring.
There should be a fairly significant edge in physicality in favor of Vegas in this series. The Stars have the fewest hits of any team in the postseason and they weren’t much better in the regular season.
On to the fancier numbers.
5-on-5 Shot Share (Corsi)
Dallas: 51.7% (10th)
Vegas: 50.0% (17th)
*Playoffs*
Dallas: 50.9% (6th)
Vegas: 47.4% (14th)
5-on-5 Goal Share (GF%)
Dallas: 54.7% (7th)
Vegas: 53.8% (11th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 66.7% (1st)
Dallas: 50.9% (7th)
5-on-5 Expected Goal Share (xGF%)
Dallas: 52.1% (10th)
Vegas: 50.9% (16th)
*Playoffs*
Dallas: 55.5% (1st)
Vegas: 50.6% (7th)
5-on-5 – High Danger Shooting Percentage (HDSH%)
Vegas: 17.7% (8th)
Dallas: 17.5% (12th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 27.0% (1st)
Dallas: 21.5% (3rd)
PDO – 5-on-5
Vegas: 1.013 (T-3rd)
Dallas: 1.012 (6th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 1.059 (1st)
Dallas: 1.004 (7th)
All Strengths – High Danger Scoring Chance Share (HDCF%)
Dallas: 54.3% (6th)
Vegas: 53.4% (12th)
*Playoffs*
Dallas: 56.4% (1st)
Vegas: 46.6% (13th)
Vegas’ advanced numbers have taken a massive step in the right direction in the playoffs and it’ll need to continue against an analytically strong Stars team. Dallas leads the playoffs in expected goals share at 55.5% while VGK have basically matched their regular season numbers at 50.6%.
The Golden Knights are on one of the most impressive PDO runs in postseason history at 5-on-5, humming along at nearly a 106% rate. Historically, that number tends to even out, which would be a huge problem but the Golden Knights have been on the plus side of PDO all season so maybe it can continue.
Now for late game numbers.
Goals With Own Net Is Empty
Dallas: 8 (T-4th)
Vegas: 7 (T-7th)
Shots For Per 60 With Own Net Empty
Vegas: 79.4 (6th)
Dallas: 65.4 (18th)
Expected Goals Per 60 With Own Net Empty
Dallas: 7.74 (8th)
Vegas: 5.49 (27th)
Goals Allowed When Opposition Net Empty
Dallas: 3 (5th)
Vegas: 7 (23rd)
Goals Scored When Opposition Net Empty
Dallas: 18 (2nd)
Vegas: 14 (T-13th)
Shots Against Per 60 When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 52.7 (4th)
Dallas: 57.0 (6th)
Expected Goals Against Per 60 When Opposition Net Empty
Vegas: 4.7 (3rd)
Dallas: 6.5 (13th)
Finally, we’ll look into game state.
When Score First
Vegas: 38-5-3 (.858)
Dallas: 38-9-4 (.784)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 3-0
Dallas: 8-1
When Concede First
Dallas: 9-12-10 (.451)
Vegas: 13-17-6 (.444)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 5-2
Dallas: 0-4
Lead After 2nd Period
Dallas: 31-0-2 (.967)
Vegas: 34-1-2 (.946)
*Playoffs*
Dallas: 8-0
Vegas: 7-0
Trail After 2nd Period
Vegas: 7-16-1 (.313)
Dallas: 3-12-5 (.275)
*Playoffs*
Dallas: 0-4
Vegas: 0-5
Wins When Trailing At Any Point
Vegas: 18 (T-13th)
Dallas: 14 (T-25th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 6
Dallas: 0
Losses After Leading At Any Point
Vegas: 12 (2nd)
Dallas: 16 (T-12th)
*Playoffs*
Vegas: 0
Dallas: 2
All in all, these teams are very evenly matched. Vegas has done a much better job of recovering when they fall behind, but strike backs will be difficult in this series as both teams are excellent at protected a lead.
**Stats for this article were sourced from NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and MoreHockeyStats.com.**
Jailbird
As I’m preaching, this will be a long, close series. I believe we will win it, but won’t be easy. Surely won’t be a sweep or 4-1, by either team. With the teams so evenly matched, goaltending will most likely make the difference.
Frank
That is what scares me the most. Oettinger has looked human so far in the playoffs, and Hill has surpassed expectations… however, if Oettinger gets hot, that can tilt the series in the Stars direction….. This VGK team, this year – has consistently found a way to win despite the opposition… so I like our chances all in all. Should be a great series.
VGK fan
The stats that find extremely impressive:
VGK 5-2 When allowing the first goal
And
Dallas 0-4 when allowing the 1st goal.
I know it’s a small sample but it still is something to hang hat.
Emmanuel
My gut feeling is Dallas might blow em out once or twice, but they will lose the close games. Vegas in 6 or 7.
TS
The VGK overall stats have almost ALL improved in the Playoffs…THAT is a great sign that the team is peaking at precisely the right time. Looking at the Dallas stats, our team looks better. This year is OUR year, and the Stars aren’t going to get in the way!
Brian Hogie
Vegas is going to surprise y’all, especially there goaltending
Jake
I think Edmonton was the more dangerous opponent.
But you don’t know until you play them.
Changes, injuries, looming for all teams.
Satan
This is Satan.
Satan is wishing you all an outstanding weekend and prosperity for our team.
May your days shine bright and your knights be golden.
Satan has spoken.
https://i0.wp.com/rottenindenmark.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/satan.jpg?ssl=1
Satan
This is Satan.
Satan is wishing you all an outstanding weekend and prosperity for our team.
May your days shine bright and your knights be golden.
Satan has spoken.
https://i0.wp.com/rottenindenmark.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/satan.jpg?ssl=1