On to the Western Conference Final! Next up for the Golden Knights are the Colorado Avalanche.
The Avs are the NHL’s best team by all measures. They won the Presidents Trophy amassing a franchise-best 121 points while stacking up 55 wins, and they have continued their dominance into the postseason, winning eight of their nine playoff games. They are stacked with talent, experience, and a burning desire after winning just one playoff series in the last three postseasons. Colorado defeated the Golden Knights twice in three regular season games.
Let’s dive into the stats to see how the two teams match up ahead of the series.
Record
Colorado: 55-16-11, 121 points (1st)
Vegas: 39-26-17, 95 points (13th)
Goals For
Colorado: 298, 3.63 per game (1st)
Vegas: 264, 3.22 per game (14th)
Goals Against
Colorado: 197, 2.40 per game (1st)
Vegas: 242, 2.95 per game (12th)
Shots For
Colorado: 2763, 33.7 per game (1st)
Vegas: 2378, 29.o per game (8th)
Shots Against
Vegas: 2001, 24.4 per game (2nd)
Colorado: 2140, 26.1 per game (5th)
Save Percentage
Colorado: .908 (1st)
Vegas: .879 (27th)
Power Play
Vegas: 24.6% (6th)
Colorado: 17.1% (27th)
Penalty Kill
Colorado: 84.6% (1st)
Vegas: 81.4% (T-7th)
Blocks
Vegas: 1179 (18th)
Colorado: 1036 (27th)
Hits
Vegas: 1713 (14th)
Colorado: 1360 (31st)
There’s a reason why they ran away with the best record in the NHL this season, and that’s because they boast the #1 scoring offense and the #1 scoring defense in the league. They +99 goal differential is miles better than VGK’s +15 which was propped up heavily by their stellar goaltending numbers. They take tons of shots, barely allow any, and kill penalties as well as anyone in the league.
The one weak true spot is the power play. Their numbers have risen a bit in the playoffs, up to 20.8%, but it still lags behind Vegas’ by a decent margin (VGK PP is 25.7% in the playoffs). Also, they don’t block a bunch of shots or deliver a ton of hits. Both trends have continued into the postseason.
On to the fancier numbers.
5-on-5 Shot Share
Colorado: 57.2% (2nd)
Vegas: 54.4% (3rd)
5-on-5 Shot Attempt Share (Corsi)
Colorado: 56.7% (2nd)
Vegas: 52.3% (7th)
5-on-5 Goal Share (GF%)
Colorado: 62.8% (1st)
Vegas: 48.8% (19th)
5-on-5 Expected Goal Share (xGF%)
Colorado: 56.4% (1st)
Vegas: 54.0% (5th)
5-on-5 – High Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%)
Colorado: 83.7% (5th)
Vegas: 77.5% (32nd)
5-on-5 – High Danger Shooting Percentage (HDSV%)
Vegas: 18.6% (11th)
Colorado: 18.1% (15th)
5-on-5 – High Danger Scoring Chance Share (HDCF%)
Vegas: 56.1% (1st)
Colorado: 55.4% (3rd)
5-on-5 PDO
Colorado: 1.020 (3rd)
Vegas: 0.983 (28th)
Colorado is extremely dangerous in regards to possession. Not only are they elite at generating shots and chances, but they are spectacular at suppressing them as well. They are Top 10 in shot attempts, shots on goal, expected goals, scoring chances, and high-danger chances against, which adds up to the #1 rank in 5-on-5 goals against. In the playoffs, these numbers have continued. The Avs have allowed just 13 5-on-5 goals against in nine games while scoring 23. That’s a +10 differential compared to VGK’s 0 scoring and allowing 25. As good as the Avalanche are at all the traditional counting stats, they are just as good at the advanced ones.
Now let’s dive into game state numbers.
When Score First
Colorado: 42-2-6 (.900)
Vegas: 23-4-7 (.779)
When Concede First
Colorado: 13-14-5 (.484)
Vegas: 16-22-10 (.438)
Lead After 2nd Period
Colorado: 41-0-0 (1.000)
Vegas: 23-0-3 (.942)
Trail After 2nd Period
Colorado: 5-12-6 (.348)
Vegas: 6-22-10 (.289)
Wins When Trailing At Any Point
Vegas: 21 (T-7th)
Colorado: 16 (T-18th)
Losses After Leading At Any Point
Colorado: 12 (4th)
Vegas: 14 (T-6th)
Time Spent Leading
Colorado: 25:56 per game (2nd)
Vegas: 16:22 per game (25th)
Time Spent Trailing
Colorado: 13:31 per game (1st)
Vegas: 23:58 per game (31st)
Simply put, if you fall behind the Avalanche, you are in big trouble. They scored first in a massive 61% of their games and held the lead throughout in many of them. They are also dynamite at holding the lead once they have it, as referenced by being league leaders in time-spent trailing and record with a lead after two periods. Colorado did not have a ton of experience coming back in games, however, they have overcome a deficit to win in four of their nine playoff games to this point. They also overcame multiple two goal deficits in a game against VGK this season.
Finally, some other miscellaneous numbers that these teams either excel or struggle with.
Minor Penalties
Vegas: 226 (T-1st)
Colorado: 248 (11th)
Forced Icings
Vegas: 403 (3rd)
Colorado: 356 (9th)
1st Period Goals
Colorado: 96 (2nd)
Vegas: 62 (27th)
3rd Period Goals
Vegas: 108 (1st)
Colorado: 102 (T-3rd)
Record When Outshoot Opponent
Colorado: 43-12-9 (.742) (2nd)
Vegas: 32-20-10 (.597) (9th)
Record When Opponent Outshoots
Colorado: 11-4-0 (.733) (1st)
Vegas: 7-5-6 (.556) (16th)
Slap Shot Goals
Colorado: 30 (5th)
Vegas: 16 (T-21st)
VGK have utilized the 3rd period to dominate teams all season long and it has continued in the playoffs with a +4 differential. However, in three fewer games, the Avalanche have been even better, scoring 19 and allowing just seven. VGK have been better in the 1st period in the postseason though, scoring 13 and allowing eight while Colorado is a -2, scoring seven and allowing nine. Colorado is significantly easier to beat when they are outshot, unfortunately it doesn’t happen much. They’ve outshot their opponent in seven of nine playoff games, and they won both of the two they didn’t.
**Stats for this article were sourced from NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and MoreHockeyStats.com.**
Richard Lloyd Evans
While good analysis season wide, VGK have been a much different team since Torts was appointed coach, offensively, defensively and special teams. From a season analysis the Avs should swat VGK away easily. This grittier, more efficient 3rd period version likely will truly test the Avs
Zac Sterner
Admittedly, I’m just glad we’re not facing off against Dallas as they’ve been a sore spot in recent memory.
Just as this article highlights, the Colorado Avalanche team is something special! They’ve been extremely entertaining to watch all season! Not to mention, this team can never be counted out. Even if we’re down 3; heading into the 3rd ;)
It’ll be interesting to see how this shakes out as the comment above certainly highlights a shift in this Vegas Knights team. But no matter what, I predict the Avs take the series in 6 games
Richie-Rich
Conference Championship Analysis
By all statistical measures the Avalanche should win this series in 4 or 5 games. For the Golden Knights to have a chance in this series these will be the factors.
1- Eliminate the stupid penalties by the bottom 6 forwards and defensive players. How many times have we seen the puck flipped over the glass in their own zone this post season? Lauzon, Sissons, and Kolesar need to be more careful and not take dumb penalties.
2-First to the puck, win board battles and do not sit back and give COL time & space in your zone. Too much time and space = goals against.
3-Mark Stone will absolutely help #2 above if he is available. However, if it was a groin we probably are not going to see him again this year.
4-Reilly Smith NOT Brandon Saad. I am not sure what is driving this decision.
5-Simplify the offense and get more pucks to the net.
6-The Golden Knights offense is diversified. It’s not one or two players producing. Marner, Dorofeyev, Eichel, Howden, and we’ve seen some recent production out of Hertl which is most welcome. I think the VGK’s offense can be a huge factor in this series. I do not believe that the regular season’s paltry offensive statistics actually represent how dangerous they can be. When we see the high energy and push up the ice, that’s when they are at their best.
7-Colorado faced the Kings and the Wild in rounds 1 & 2. The Wild gave them a lot of problems even though they won the series 4-1. I think the Golden Knights pose a lot more problems for them on offense than the Wild.
8-Throw out the regular season goaltending and defensive statistics. Carter Hart stays healthy and we’re at least even in goal.
I am predicting that the Golden Knights will win this series in 7 games. They need at least a split in Colorado this week.
Lastly, many of us – myself included rightfully criticized this team’s commitment, energy and performance. That’s what fans do. However, we are now in the Conference Championship round. All of that regular season stuff has been wiped away. We are actually going to see our team face off now against the President Trophy winner. We are expected to get beat and get beat soundly. I doubt that is going to happen. Even if we lose this series, I expect that we will be proud of this team.
TS
Watching the team dominate Game 6 vs Quacks, i felt like they have finally found their game, finally figured out what it takes to win. Not chasing the puck and the score all game.
We might just have a chance against the AVS!!
VGK fan
A well thought out look at what will start tomorrow, I thank you for that
Frank
VGK lately have been a different hockey team. Penalty kill is much improved (lights out) and share of high danger chances and goals is significantly higher. Not to mention the much improved goaltending numbers. Love our chances against a heavily favored Colorado squad.
TS
Being the underdog is the great motivator..we have something to prove now: we’re still.standing because we DESERVE to be here!!
PROVE THE HOCKEY WORLD WRONG, KNIGHTS!!
larry
I would like to offer my 2 cents on the Western Conference Finals, much if not all will be frowned upon or spit on, but hey its my honest assessment.
Firstly I believe this current team is the worst playoff team we have ever had, in many ways I am shocked at where we are, but also recognize how and why we are here.
When the Coach was replaced by this current coach, we were a team that was floundering on the edge of missing the playoffs, for whatever reasons we started playing better as evidenced by the record over the final 8 games, however outside of 2 games, we played some of the worst teams in hockey who were effectively playing out the string at the end of their seasons. I realize every team is stocked with professionals and still have to play well enough to win, but it was fortuitous timing to have those teams on the schedule.
We were ‘lucky’ enough to have come out on top of the Pacific Division and thus got to play the #1 Wild Card team(Utah) who we had our difficulties with until ultimately besting them, then against the Ducks who collapsed late in the season to fall to 3rdin the division, came to life and beat the *(&^& oilers, VGK was ultimately able to find enough answers to beat them and now here we are in the WCF.
We are a flawed team, potentially and likely missing our Captain who is an invaluable asset, as well as Lauzon on defense who carries a nasty streak and combativeness protecting the crease.
We have a 3rd line that plays less minutes than our 4th line, a line that could be improved to a degree if a certain player was taken out of the lineup and a different player inserted in, the 4th line plays hard but commits to many careless penalties which need to be eliminated. We have a defenseman who had played 1 regular season game and is now counted on for significant minutes(and doing a very good job and i think will evolve even more this series), but yet through everything we stand on the threshold of what we all hope for every season.
I think VGK has a legitimate punchers chance (not a lucky Buster Douglas type punch) to take the series, play hard, play fast, have amazing goaltending and no weakass 50 footers from the blue line sneaking under the pads, somehow get production out of the 3rd line, and the balance of the first 2 lines there is hope and a chance.
To me the 2 biggest factors will be, can Eichel get to another level handling the puck and scoring goals, and mainly can VGK generate 5×5 chances because historically the AVS forechecking and defensive pressure from the blue line to the neutral zone is ferocious, somehow solve that and VGK can win the series!
TS
Watching the Sabres fall , the repeated problem for them was Tuch ‘s lack of scoring..it was talked about the entire series.
The VGK has a similar problem in Eichel’s lack of scoring.
Conclusion: Eichel HAS to start scoring!!!! He has been nearly invisible since the Olympics. If this doesn’t change, we are doomed to lose to the AVS!
Richie-Rich
This is a fair analysis. No one is going to spit on it. Well maybe PP. We beat two young teams in the Mammoth and the Ducks. The Ducks did have a few more veterans, but overall we were likely lucky to draw them in the first two rounds.
Now comes the real test.
Frank
Indeed – this team looks up for it though. I think we may surprise the Avs. Color me cautiously optimistic!
still believe
Even though this was kind of a downer piece and i rather look at it froma brighter side, the points made about the team were pretty accyrate but for me i still rather be poesitive and like my screen name I still believe and think we can do it!