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VGK Looking To Feast On Another Tired Opponent

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Even though the Golden Knights haven’t taken on the New York Islanders yet this season, VGK return home to a familiar situation. For the 5th time this year, Vegas will take on a team on the second game of a back-to-back.

Last night, the Islanders lost 5-4 to the Arizona Coyotes extending their losing streak to three. They are the third of the previous four teams to lose the front end of the back-to-back before taking on the Golden Knights.

VGK are 3-1-0 in the first four and there are lessons to learn about those games to help give perspective on what we might see tonight.

10/13 vs Chicago Blackhawks
VGK win 1-0

Vegas 2nd game of the season they took on a Blackhawks team that had played the night before in Colorado. Chicago got blasted against the defending champions, allowing four power play goals. The game was 4-1 heading into the 3rd and Chicago ultimately fell 5-2.

The Hawks looked much better against the Golden Knights the following night. They came out and blitzed Vegas attempting 25 shot attempts and generating six high-danger chances in the 1st period. But, Logan Thomspon was tremendous stopping all 10 Blackhawk shots. VGK took over from there landing 17 scoring chances in the 2nd period alone while allowing just 10 the rest of the game. A goal from Paul Cotter was the only one of the game.

Chicago switched goalies from their game the night before in Colorado. Backup Alex Stalock took on the Golden Knights and was excellent in this game.

10/20 vs Winnipeg Jets
VGK win 5-2

This one was the opposite of the Chicago game as the Golden Knights jumped all over the tired Jets, scoring four times in the 1st. Winnipeg also visited Colorado the night before and played into overtime where they defeated the Avs 4-3. Winnipeg held a 3-1 lead in that game but a pair of late 2nd period goals sent it to intermission tied at three where it would stay until OT.

The advanced stats tell a much different story of the game in Vegas though. Despite scoring four times, per NaturalStatTrick.com Vegas landed just four scoring chances and none qualified as high-danger in the 1st period. It was an opportunistic effort from VGK scoring early and often against a backup goalie. The next two periods, like against Chicago, Vegas locked it down allowing just three high-danger chances.

The Jets also chose to play their starter in the front end of the back-to-back before facing the Golden Knights. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 30 of 33 in Colorado while David Rittich got lit up in Vegas allowing four goals on 13 1st period shots.

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Vegas Continues To Topple Quality Opponents On The Road

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Last week we examined how the Golden Knights are taking care of business when facing non-contenders. When points are easily available, Vegas along with other threatening teams, tend to scoop them up. Now, the same can be said for when the Golden Knights face off against the league’s best, especially away from home. Tuesday in Winnipeg was Vegas’ latest example of a quality win.

The Golden Knights held leads of 2-1 and 3-2, only to walk away with a 6-5 victory. On the road vs. a quality opponent, the 31st franchise drew two penalties that changed the game. Jonathan Marchessault tallied the game-tying and tie-breaking goals to put the Golden Knights in the driver’s seat. Not only did they beat the Jets at home, they swept the season series between the two. That’s six points against a Western Conference team with a .661 points percentage.

Through 31 games the Golden Knights have several quality victories. Down center Jack Eichel and defenseman Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas knocked off a dangerous Bruins team in Boston earlier this month. Also, the Golden Knights took two of two against the 44-point Toronto Maple Leafs.

2022-23 VGK Quality Wins

  • 10/20: VGK 5 vs. WPG 2
  • 10/24: VGK 3 vs. TOR 1
  • 10/30: VGK 2 vs. WPG 1 OT
  • 11/08: VGK 4 @ TOR 3 OT
  • 12/05: VGK 4 @ BOS SO
  • 12/13: VGK 6 @ WPG 5

There’s an argument to be made that Vegas has more quality victories this season. Both LA and Seattle are currently in playoff positions but neither are on the same level as Boston or Toronto.

Taking a deeper dive into Winnipeg, the Golden Knights were without their biggest offensive weapon and their two deep threats from the blueline. Somehow, the scrambled lineup managed to net six goals against Jets on the road. It also marked the second time this season that Vegas handled 2020 Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck.

To be fair, the Golden Knights have lost to a handful of quality clubs. In their ten losses, Vegas lost six times to postseason hopefuls. One in overtime. Starting in early 2023, the Golden Knights will play 11 of their first 12 games against playoff contenders. Vegas will host Pittsburgh, LA, Florida, Edmonton, Dallas, Detroit, and Washington. They’ll travel to Colorado, New Jersey, and New York for two games. January will be the most challenging month the Golden Knights have faced this season. Thankfully, they banked enough support points in 2022.

VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 6 WINNIPEG JETS 5 (21-9-1, 43 PTS)

Recap: The Golden Knights were looking to sweep their season series with the Jets up north in Winnipeg. The Jets got on the board first but fill-in defenseman Daniil Miromanov evened to score a couple of minutes later. As the period was winding down, Mark Stone scooped up a rebound and score :02 left in the opening period. The Golden Knights carried a 2-1 advantage into the 1st intermission. 

Winnipeg tied the game midway through the 2nd period but Stone regained the lead for Vegas with his second goal of the contest. However, the Jets scored the equalizer :39 later. 

The home team took advantage of a power play carried over from the 2nd period but Jonathan Marchessault matched Winnipeg with a PP goal of his own. Marchessault scored his second PP goal of the period and William Karlsson clinched the game with a late empty-net goal.

The Golden Knights’ record improves to 21-9-1 beating the Jets 6-5 in Winnipeg. Vegas wraps up their two-game road trip on Thursday night in Chicago. Puck drop against the Blackhawks is scheduled for 5:30 PM. (Recap by Jason)

Analysis: The mystery of why the Golden Knights can score on the road but can’t seem to find the back of the net at home continues. And it continues in a big way as VGK score two huge power play goals in the 3rd period to steal a game that certainly looked like it was headed the other way. Big time players stepped up in big time spots and it gave VGK a much-needed win for the psyche. (Recap by Ken)

Upcoming stories from the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Winnipeg Jets at Canada Life Centre.

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VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 2 WINNIPEG JETS 1 (8-2-0 16 PTS) – OT

Recap: The Golden Knights hosted the Winnipeg Jets for the second time in the last ten days. The 1st period was tight on both ends of the ice. Neither team could find the back of the net and the game was locked in a scoreless tie after 20 minutes. 

The game continued to tighten up in the middle frame. Both teams had several chances on net but each goaltender stood tall and kept the game in a scoreless lock. 

The offense picked up in the 3rd period with the Jets picking up the first goal of the game. Mark Stone later tied the game to force overtime. Jack Eichel ended the game 2-1 with seconds remaining in OT. 

The Golden Knights record improves to 8-2 defeating the Jets 2-1 in OT. Vegas will travel to the East Coast for a five game road trip starting in Washington DC. Tuesday’s game against the Capitals is scheduled for 4P PT. (Recap by Jason)

Analysis: The Golden Knights were absolutely brilliant for a majority of the hockey game, especially the first 40 minutes. They could not solve the mystery of Connor Hellebuyck and the posts but they continued to work even when falling behind. OT wasn’t my favorite, but Eichel pulled out the superhero cape and rescued it. VGK deserved to win, and they did. (Recap by Ken)

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VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 5 WINNIPEG JETS 2 (4-1-0 8 PTS)

Recap: The Golden Knights hosted the Winnipeg Jets for their second home match of the 2022-23 season. It didn’t take long for the home team to take full control of the game. Jack Eichel scored quickly followed by goals from William Karlsson and Chandler Stephenson. Late in the 1st period, Eichel tapped in his second goal of the game to give Vegas a 4-0 advantage.

Winnipeg got on the board in the middle frame, but Vegas goaltender Aiden Hill stopped any further damage. After 40 minutes the Golden Knights held a 4-1 edge.

In the final period the Jets were able to sneak one in but couldn’t get any closer as the Golden Knights locked it down the final 10 minutes and tallied an empty netter in the final seconds.

The Golden Knights record improves to 4-1 on the young season defeating the Jets 5-2. Vegas will next hit the ice Saturday night against the Colorado Avalanche. Puck drop is scheduled for 7P PT from T-Mobile Arena. (Recap by Jason)

Analysis: The Golden Knights came out looking for blood early and the Jets played right into their hands. VGK outskated them, outworked them, and dominated stick battles on their way to a 4-0 lead. From there they basically coasted to the finish line.  (Recap by Ken)

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WINNIPEG JETS 4 VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 0 (34-28-4 72 PTS)

Recap: The Golden Knights traveled to Winnipeg for their second game of a back-to-back. Logan Thompson started in net for the fourth straight game and held the game scoreless after the opening 20 minutes.

Although being outshot 17-4 the Jets took the first lead of the game six minutes into the middle period. Later in the period Winnipeg doubled their lead and took a 2-0 advantage into the second intermission. 

Trailing 2-0 the Golden Knights continued to fire the puck on net but couldn’t generate any offense. Winnipeg added two more and shutdown Vegas to seal a 4-0 victory. 

The Golden Knights record drops to 34-28-4 falling 4-0. Vegas will try and get back on the winning track Thursday night at The Fortress. Puck drop against Nashville is set for 7 PM. (Recap by Jason)

Analysis: The Golden Knights fell into an all too familiar trap. They flung plenty of chances on the goal, but didn’t create nearly enough dangerous chances and never had the ability to beat Connor Hellebuyck. It’s another 40 shot on goal loss, the 11th of the season. (Recap by Ken)


Upcoming stories from the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Winnipeg Jets at Canada Life Centre.

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WINNIPEG JETS 7 VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 3 (32-26-4 68 PTS)

Recap: The Golden Knights jumped off to a good start, creating opportunities and playing tight defensively. Vegas held Winnipeg without a shot in the first 12 and half minutes of the game. The home team began to warm up and outshot the Golden Knights 9-1 down the stretch and scored two 1st period goals. 

Trailing 2-0, the Golden Knights cut the lead in half off Nic Roy’s 11th goal of the season. Thereafter the Jets would respond three times in the middle frame to take a 5-2 advantage into the 2nd intermission. 

Vegas fought back picking up a power play goal from Alex Pietrangelo and an even-strength goal by Michael Amadio. However, Winnipeg sealed their victory with a power play and a shorthanded goal in the final period. 

The Golden Knights record drops to 32-26-4 falling 7-3 to the Jets. The Golden Knights finish their five-game road trip 0-5-0. Vegas travels back home for the next two games. Puck drop against the Florida Panthers is scheduled for 730 PM PT on Thursday night. (Recap by Jason)

Analysis: Another night, another disaster. The Golden Knights cannot seem to do much of anything right at this point and the season is slipping away in a hurry. (Recap by Ken)


Upcoming stories from the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Winnipeg Jets at Canada Life Centre.

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WINNIPEG JETS 5 VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS 4 (22-12-1 45 PTS) – OT

Recap: The Golden Knights got off to a great start against the Winnipeg Jets. Vegas outshot Winnipeg 22 to 10 in the opening 20 minutes and took a multiple-goal lead. Forwards Michael Amadio and Evgenii Dadonov both scored giving the Golden Knights a 2-0 1st intermission edge.

Winnipeg responded quickly into the middle frame tying the game 2-2. The Jets scored two goals in a :20 second span evening the game after 40 minutes. 

The visiting team continued to control the game adding two more to make it four unanswered goals. Mattias Janmark capitalized on a turnover to get Vegas within one late in the final period. Janmark later evened the game in dramatic style with :09 seconds remaining in regulation. Winnipeg ended the game in overtime but Vegas earned a point in the standings.

The Golden Knights record drops to 22-12-1 falling to the Jets 5-4 in overtime. Vegas will next face the Nashville Predators at home on Tuesday night. Puck drop is set for 7 PM. (Recap by Jason)

Analysis: VGK took advantage of the rusty Jets in the 1st period jumping all over them towards the end of the period and building a two-goal lead. But defensively the Golden Knights left a lot to be desired and subsequently allowed four straight. The Golden Knights did not give in though and did well to come back and used their continued 6-on-5 dominance to send it to OT. (Recap by Ken)


Upcoming stories from the Vegas Golden Knights vs. Winnipeg Jets game at T-Mobile Arena.

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Probabilities Of Each Opponent Based On Round-Robin Seed

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

The NHL is a league built on parity. Winning the Stanley Cup is as much about matchups (and luck) as it is the skill of any given team. This year, the matchups have a chance to vary wildly as the league is re-seeding teams at the conclusions of the play-in and first rounds.

Unlike the eight teams with set play-in round matchups, the Golden Knights seed throughout the tournament is dependant on their performance in three round-robin games. The round-robin not only determines who the Golden Knights will play in the 1st Round, but it also determines the opponent in the 2nd round as well.

With four games in the play-in round, there are 16 possible outcomes between the eight teams. Using William Hill odds, we ranked them from most likely to least likely to occur. Then, using those rankings, we are able to show the probabilities of which team the Golden Knights would be most likely to face depending on which seed they end up with in the round-robin. (An explanation of how I arrived at these numbers is at the end of the article.)

#1 Seed#2 Seed#3 Seed#4 Seed
Edmonton (5)59.6%
Nashville (6)33.0%22.3%
Vancouver (7)19.1%28.4%10.5%
Calgary (8)10.4%22.9%16.8%4.1%
Winnipeg (9)8.7%19.3%14.2%3.5%
Minnesota (10)13.8%20.6%7.6%
Arizona (11)26.7%18.1%
Chicago (12)40.4%

As you can see from the chart, there’s a significant advantage to finish atop the round-robin. Finishing first eliminates the possibility of a matchup with Edmonton, Nashville, or Vancouver, while coming in fourth takes away any chance to play Chicago, Arizona, or Minnesota.

Compare that to this chart, how Vegas has played against each of these eight teams.

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Potential Realignment Shouldn’t Affect Golden Knights

The NHL pause has become the newest, most addicting daily soap opera. Every morning fans wake up to read the latest news on the NHL’s plans to restart the season. Yesterday, Commissioner Gary Bettman shared his optimism with the NHL network.

We have a great deal of flexibility in terms of when we can start. There’s no magic for next season of starting in October as we traditionally do. If we have to start in November or December, that’s something that will be under consideration. We’re going to try and make good, prudent, careful judgments. This isn’t a race to be first back. When we come back, we want it to be at the right time, for the right reasons, under the right circumstances. -Gary Bettman, NHL Commissioner

Now that the players and owners are engaging in daily conversations it shows the effort to recover the season from both sides. One scenario NHL officials have mulled over was originally conceived by Major League Baseball.

MLB is considering a three-division, 10-team plan in which teams play only within their division – a concept gaining support among owners and executives. It would abolish the traditional American and National Leagues, and realign the divisions based on geography.

The plan, pending approval of medical experts and providing that COVID-19 testing is available to the public, would eliminate the need for players to be in isolation and allow them to still play at their home ballparks while severely reducing travel. -USA Today

TSN’s Bob McKenzie weighed on the possibility of the NHL taking the realignment approach, specifically reducing travel which allows players to play in locations closer to their homes and families.

If they get four sites, and we kind of assumed it would try to be done divisionally if they try to get the 19-20 season finished up. Four NHL sites, one for each division. There is the possibility that they would just say ‘well the Atlantic division is going to based out of Toronto. We’re not going to do can’t that, Florida and Tampa Bay can’t get from Florida up to Toronto. We’ll put them with some of the Metro teams, and move one of those Metro teams.’ You could do some mixing and matching on geographical lines versus divisions. -Bob McKenzie, TSN Analyst

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