Ok, I’ll admit it, I’m obsessed with the difference between the Golden Knights’ expected goals rate and the results they are achieving in spite of it. The longer it goes on this way, the more I think about it and the more I dig and dig trying to figure out what I’m missing.
If you aren’t aware of what I’m talking about, the Golden Knights are 12-3-2 in their last 17 games and they’ve outscored their opponents 57-46 in that span, yet NaturalStatTrick.com‘s expected goals stats have them trailing 48.7-60.9 over the same timeframe. That’s a difference of eight goals for and 15 goals against, or a 23 goal delta in just the last 17 games.
Over a small sample, we see numbers like this pop up all the time, but 17 games is pushing those boundaries. Vegas has been outscored in expected goals in 14 of the last 17, yet has come out on the right side of the real scoreboard in 10 of them. At some point, it can’t be a coincidence.
The latest data set I’ve turned to is trying to understand game state’s impact on the overall numbers. One of the constants in VGK’s recent run of success has been their ability to score first. They’ve done so in 13 of the 17 and they’ve won each of the last 10 in which they have. That’s led to Vegas being ahead on the scoreboard a lot. In fact, since February 19th, the Golden Knights have led for 477 of the 1041 minutes they’ve played. That’s 28 minutes per game or nearly half of every game.
Of course, that will have an impact on the expected goals numbers. When a team is ahead, especially a Bruce Cassidy-coached team, they are expected to play a little more conservatively while the other team pushes to tie the game back up. And, while ahead, the numbers do bear that out.
When leading, VGK have been outscored 23.1-32.3 in expected goals over the last 17 games. What’s weird though is that the actual goal total mimics those numbers almost perfectly. Vegas has scored exactly 23 times when leading and they’ve conceded 30. Thus, just 2.4 goals of the 23-goal difference in expected goals come when Vegas is ahead… which is more than 45% of the game!
When they are trailing, the numbers match up as well. In 211 minutes while behind, Vegas has been outscored 10-7 in real goals and 10.9-7.9 in expected goals. As the great Mike Goldberg used to say, virtually identical.
