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(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

We rarely see a dud of a game from the Golden Knights. Tuesday night in Carolina was the first time Vegas had trailed by more than three goals at any point in a game and it was the only game this season where the outcome had pretty much already been decided by the first minute of the final period.

Inside of a game, the Golden Knights are one of the league’s best at keeping games close. They are even better from game to game though, especially after a terrible game.

This year, Vegas has lost a game by at least three goals on five occasions with the most recent game being the fifth. The Golden Knights went on to win the next game on the schedule all four times this year.

Loss vs LAK 4-1 -> Win vs SJS 5-0
Loss at WSH 3-0 -> Win at MTL 6-5
Loss at PIT 3-0 -> Win at DAL 2-1 (OT)
Loss at BUF 5-2 -> Win vs OTT 6-3
Loss at CAR 6-3 -> ??? at TBL

This isn’t a new phenomenon for VGK either. They were blown out in three playoff games last year and went on to win the next game all three times.

Loss in Game 1 vs WPG 5-1 -> Win in Game 2 vs WPG 5-2
Loss in Game 2 vs EDM 5-1 -> Win in Game 3 at EDM 5-1
Loss in Game 4 at EDM 4-1 -> Win in Game 5 vs EDM 4-3

Vegas lost 11 times last year by at least three goals. They went on to win the next game six times and picked up points in nine. Thus, in the last 18 times the Golden Knights lost a game by at least three goals, they have won the next game 13 times and picked up at least one point in 16.

Not too shabby.

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Ok, I’ll admit it, I’m obsessed with the difference between the Golden Knights’ expected goals rate and the results they are achieving in spite of it. The longer it goes on this way, the more I think about it and the more I dig and dig trying to figure out what I’m missing.

If you aren’t aware of what I’m talking about, the Golden Knights are 12-3-2 in their last 17 games and they’ve outscored their opponents 57-46 in that span, yet NaturalStatTrick.com‘s expected goals stats have them trailing 48.7-60.9 over the same timeframe. That’s a difference of eight goals for and 15 goals against, or a 23 goal delta in just the last 17 games.

Over a small sample, we see numbers like this pop up all the time, but 17 games is pushing those boundaries. Vegas has been outscored in expected goals in 14 of the last 17, yet has come out on the right side of the real scoreboard in 10 of them. At some point, it can’t be a coincidence.

The latest data set I’ve turned to is trying to understand game state’s impact on the overall numbers. One of the constants in VGK’s recent run of success has been their ability to score first. They’ve done so in 13 of the 17 and they’ve won each of the last 10 in which they have. That’s led to Vegas being ahead on the scoreboard a lot. In fact, since February 19th, the Golden Knights have led for 477 of the 1041 minutes they’ve played. That’s 28 minutes per game or nearly half of every game.

Of course, that will have an impact on the expected goals numbers. When a team is ahead, especially a Bruce Cassidy-coached team, they are expected to play a little more conservatively while the other team pushes to tie the game back up. And, while ahead, the numbers do bear that out.

When leading, VGK have been outscored 23.1-32.3 in expected goals over the last 17 games. What’s weird though is that the actual goal total mimics those numbers almost perfectly. Vegas has scored exactly 23 times when leading and they’ve conceded 30. Thus, just 2.4 goals of the 23-goal difference in expected goals come when Vegas is ahead… which is more than 45% of the game!

When they are trailing, the numbers match up as well. In 211 minutes while behind, Vegas has been outscored 10-7 in real goals and 10.9-7.9 in expected goals. As the great Mike Goldberg used to say, virtually identical.

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(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Tonight in Buffalo the Golden Knights will put their eight-game winning streak on the line, trying to push one win closer to the franchise record of 10.

They’ll also attempt to do something they’ve never done before, sweep a 5+ game road trip.

The Golden Knights have taken six road trips of at least five games in their history. They’ve walked away with records ranging from an excellent 4-1-0 to a miserable 0-5-0. What they’ve never done is win all of the games, or even get points in all five of a road trip. Even on the longer trips, they’ve never had a five-game point streak inside of the six, seven, or eight-game trips they’ve taken.

Way back in early 2018, during the Golden Knights’ inaugural season, Vegas headed to New Jersey, Columbus, Detroit, Buffalo, and Philadelphia for a five-game span toward the end of the season. It started with a win against the Devils but was followed up by a poor 4-1 loss to the Blue Jackets. VGK went on to win the next three games bringing home eight points from the trip.

As of right now, only because the Golden Knights haven’t stepped foot on the ice tonight, that road trip still stands as the best in team history. Tonight, Vegas will at worst match it, and with a win or an OT loss, they can sweep a five-game trip for the first time ever.

There have been two instances in which the Golden Knights have swept four-game trips. Last year they went to Boston, New Jersey, and the two New Yorks and ripped through the four Eastern Conference teams. In the shortened season, Vegas took a quick trip down to Southern California where they beat the Kings and Ducks twice each.

A win would also push the Golden Knights to within one win of the team record for the longest road winning streak. With the win in San Jose before this trip, the streak currently sits at five. It’s one of just four times the Golden Knights have won five straight on the road. They’ve won six in a row twice and pushed one out to seven. That streak also came last year.

No matter what goes down tonight in Buffalo, this trip has been a massive success. But, if they win it, it’ll become an historic one.