NHL Entry Draft Archives - Page 2 of 4

On May 3, 2017

GM George McPhee made his first Vegas radio appearance since the lottery debacle on ESPN 1100 this afternoon (interview here, begins at 28:00). McPhee joked with Ed Graney and Mike Pritchard that after he found out the results, he was happy he got stuck in Washington. Stanley the Rooster still believes his presence could have helped the situation. But I digress.

When talking about the draft, McPhee mentioned once again how much of an advantage the Golden Knights have had in knowing they would be selecting the top six from the beginning of the season. In the same answer he then went on to divulge some information we’ve discussed many times, but never thought we’d actually hear from McPhee’s mouth.

With this particular draft there are a couple of players at one and two that I think are a lot better than the next layer of players. You can get the same player at 3 at 6 at 9 so I’m not worried about getting a good player because there are enough them there that we’ll be fine. -George McPhee

Essentially he said, Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier are good, and the rest of the players a cut below. However, while most scouts around the continent believe Nico and Nolan are good, no one is ready to compare them to the McDavids, Matthews, and Eichels of the world. So, in agreeing, McPhee basically said the draft is not as strong at the top as in recent year’s past.

A few minutes later, McPhee went on to say he doesn’t calls drafts weak or strong.

I’ve tried to approach every draft in the same way, some people say certain drafts are strong drafts, certain drafts are weak drafts, and I’ve never ever looked at it that way because if you go into what is supposed to be a weak draft and come up with two or three good players then it wasn’t a weak draft. I believe this is where good drafting teams really make their hay. If you go into what’s supposed to be a strong draft, seems like everybody gets good players. When you go into a weak drafts, the good scouting departments come up with the players and create separation between teams. -McPhee

And then there’s me listening to all of what McPhee said thinking, well yeah that’s all accurate. So, let’s try and recap.

The lottery sucked so much it was worth not being at. It’s disappointing the lottery sucked because those top two guys are good. Not that good, but pretty good. After them though, it’s not as good. There’s a big mess of players that are all very similar. We have to now pick from that mess. But this draft isn’t weak because if you pick the good players then you got some good players and the draft can’t be weak if you got multiple good players.

Yup, that all makes sense to me.

McPhee’s Lottery Luck

On April 24, 2017

This Saturday the Golden Knights will have a 10.3% chance to win the NHL Draft Lottery and be awarded the first selection in June’s Entry Draft. It’s the first time Vegas will participate in an NHL “competition” against the Original 30, and while we have no clue what kind luck the new franchise will have, we can only hope GM George McPhee’s luck carries over.

McPhee has been a general manger in the NHL for 17 years, six of which is Capitals missed the playoffs and were in the lottery.

Year	Finish (to last)	Lottery Odds	Pick Number	Draft Selection
1999	5th	8.1%*	7th	Kris Beech
2002	12th	0%	12th	Steve Eminger
2004	3rd	14.2%	1st	Alex Ovechkin
2006	4th	10.7%	4th	Nicklas Backstrom
2007	4th	10.7%	5th	Karl Alzner
2014	14th	0.5%	13th	Jakub Vrana

*In 1999 the Thrashers joined the league. The Internet struggled back then, so finding exact odds was tough. If anyone finds them, let me know

Hopefully McPhee is partying like it’s 2004. With just a few percentage points more than the Golden Knights will have this year, McPhee hit the lottery and jumped up to get Ovi.

Nolan Patrick Draft Stock Continues To Slip

On April 4, 2017

Months ago Brandon Wheat Kings star prospect Nolan Patrick was the near consensus first overall pick in the NHL Entry Draft. Through a season of injuries and a fantastic campaign by the Swiss standout, Nico Hischier is starting to find his way to the top of draft boards.

So what do you do if you have the first pick overall this summer? Patrick’s two-way game and 6-foot-3 frame seemed to make him a safe top pick before the injuries, but Hischier’s hockey IQ and elite offensive skills make him look like another Jonathan Drouin. For me, it’s Hischier right now – and he certainly had to earn the distinction. -Ryan Kennedy, The Hockey News

Hischier has been stupendous all season long and has continued his excellent run during the QJHML playoffs. Meanwhile, Patrick has been out much of the season and missed the Wheaties playoff series in which they were swept.

Here’s the good news, the Golden Knights didn’t need the 2016-17 season to know who Nolan Patrick is. While many teams were set to take advantage of another pre-draft eligible season for Patrick (he missed the cutoff by four days last year), they weren’t afforded a wealth of ice time due to Patrick’s nagging injuries. The Golden Knights on the other hand have Kelly McCrimmon on their staff. The current owner of the Brandon Wheat Kings and the former coach and GM of Patrick through his first three years in Manitoba.

Of course the lottery balls still have to have their say (still no official date on the lottery yet), but it’s likely that if McCrimmon believes Patrick is the next Anze Kopitar, he and McPhee will do what it takes to make him a Golden Knight. Therefore, the injuries, the rise of Hischier, and the lack of minutes from Patrick could in fact be a blessing in disguise for Vegas.

Top Defenseman Come From Draft, But Not Necessarily Early

On March 15, 2017

Back in December we examined the success rates of centers and defenseman drafted in the top five. The percentage of accomplished forwards were much higher than blueliners. To the point that we should all be crossing our fingers George McPhee drafts a center first. TSN’s Director of Scouting Craig Button published his latest rookie mock draft. Not much has changed as centers Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier remain his top two picks. Button slotted the Golden Knights with the third pick and selected center Gabe Vilardi. The 17 year-old is a brilliantly skilled prospect who plays for the Windsor Spitfires. Vilardi fits that franchise center we can all hope turns into talent like Anze Kopitar. After the Golden Knights select their offensive star in the first round they will have to address the backend.

There are really good players in this draft. There’s gonna be really good players that have a significant impact in the National Hockey League. The problem is, is that the last two drafts with McDavid, Eichel, Matthews, Laine were exceptional. You go back and look at the other players from those draft, they didn’t make it in their first year. It’s gonna take some time. There’s really good players here and you got to find them. I don’t think they’re depth players, I think there are really good players in the draft. -Craig Button, TSN

Button is convinced there are plenty of pro-level prospects beyond Patrick and Hischier. Especially, some under the radar defensive players. On TSN Toronto, Button was asked about teams addressing defensive needs in the offseason. The analyst suggested teams have better luck finding blueline talent in the draft as opposed to free agency.

You have to draft a defenseman that you think could be a top three guy. Number one defenseman are rare. They’re like true number one centers. And just go back and look where they are, they’re right at the top of the draft.” -Craig Button, TSN

If you look around the league, number one defenseman are mainstays. Top D-men will either stay with the team that drafted them or sign a monster free agent deal. I can’t imagine The Creator agreeing to the contract the Wild’s Ryan Suter made. Luckily, that deal was signed under the previous CBA. Although stay tuned, in 2019, players would like to throw out the term limits.

Having an elite defenseman can also determine how successful a club will be. The only issue is their availability, great blueliners are hard to come by, and for a reason. It’s why some teams like Chicago, LA and Pittsburgh have had monumental, continued, success. All three Cup winners drafted their top defenseman. And it continues from there. Check out the last ten teams that won the Stanley Cup. Half were led by homegrown talent and only two were drafted in the first round.

Team	Player	Acquired
Penguins (2016, 2009)	Kris Letang	2005 3rd Round (62nd Overall)
Blackhawks (2015, 2013, 2010)	Duncan Keith	2002 2nd Round (54th Overall)
Kings (2014, 2012)	Drew Doughty	2008 1st Round (2nd Overall)
Bruins (2011)	Zdeno Chara	Free Agent, 2006	5yr/$37.5 mil
Red Wings (2008, 2002)	Nicklas Lidstrom	1989 3rd Round (53rd Overall)
Ducks (2007)	Scott Niedermayer	Free Agent, 2005	4yr/$27 mil
Hurricanes (2006)	Aaron Ward	Traded from Boston	for Patrick Eaves and 4th Round Pick
Lightning (2004)	Dan Boyle	Traded from Florida	for 5th Round Pick
Devils (2003)	Scott Niedermayer	1991 1st Round (3rd Overall)
Avalanche (2001)	Rob Blake	Traded from Los Angeles	for two 1st Round Picks

Golden Knights Aren’t The Reason To Avoid Tanking

On March 14, 2017

The addition of the 31st franchise in the NHL has changed the layout of the 2017 NHL Draft. Since 1995 the league has used a lottery system to determine the order of selection in the first round for all non-playoff teams. It’s an effort to make it less appealing to give up at the end of the season in hopes of getting a higher pick in the draft.

The lottery has done just that. Sometimes teams keep the top overall pick, sometimes a team jumps up a slot or two to the front of the line, and even the team that finished closest to the playoffs has the slimmest chance to find itself selecting in the top three. (The NHL conducts three lotteries using the same odds to determine the top thee picks. Then teams are slotted in from 4-15 based on record)

There’s no debating the lottery’s effectiveness on curbing tanking. But there is a debate on this nugget from TSN.

The one problem for the Devils – or any other team interested in improving their odds – is that tanking has been slightly disincentivized this year with the addition of the Vegas Golden Knights. –Frank Seravalli, TSN

Exact odds have not been released yet for the 2017 lottery including Vegas, but the projections take the word slightly literally.

In 2016 the last place team, Toronto, had a 20% shot of winning the lottery and getting Auston Matthews. It happened. The second to last place team, Edmonton, came in at 13.5% with Vancouver behind them at 11.5%.

The Expansion Rules indicate that Vegas will have an equal chance in the lottery as the third worst team. Last year that would have meant 11.5%, but in adding a team the odds must change a bit. Again, the numbers have not been released yet, so these are just speculation, but the guess is the worst team will have a 17.9% chance, with 2nd worst 12.1% and Vegas/3rd worst tied at 10.3%.

If Nolan Patrick’s A Golden Knight, It’ll Be For Good Reason

On March 10, 2017

Since the signing of Reid Duke, the entire Golden Knights fan base have been playing make-believe GM. The dream transaction almost every armchair general manager (including myself) wants to make, is drafting top rated prospect Nolan Patrick. By now, we’re all aware Nolan and Duke play together in Brandon, Manitoba. Patrick is currently projected first or second in most analysts mock drafts. Duke, who becomes the Golden Knights first signed player could also become the team’s first player ambassador.

Of course, we can’t expect Kelly McCrimmon to exchange all of his Brandon currency for Vegas gold but his influence could help. If he believes Patrick is worth trading future assets for, I’m sure his boss will listen. George McPhee wouldn’t just trade up for a splash, but we have to imagine McCrimmon’s opinion is heavily valued by the GM. Conspiracy nuts like myself and Alex Jones expect lottery shenanigans leading to Vegas magically getting the first pick, but the possibility of drafting four to six is real if the odds are legit.

McPhee will be having very serious conversations with all 30 GMs in the near future so he’ll know (he might already) what the price of moving up will be. Analysts like Craig Button and Bob McKenzie are both down on this year’s draft but that doesn’t mean a team will make trade-swapping easy on Vegas.

Now that we know the situation, we have to ask the obvious question, is trading up for Nolan Patrick is even worth it? The projected number one pick’s numbers are silly over the past three plus seasons in Brandon. In 28 games this season, the right-handed center has 42 points. Last year he posted 102 points in 72 games with a rating of +51. Out of Patrick’s 18 goals this season only a few are assisted by Duke. While both centers play many shifts on separate lines, they continuously show up together on Brandon’s lethal power play unit. The Wheat Kings are in the top half of the WHL, scoring 64 PP goals this season. Teaming up on special teams in Vegas could be one reason to reunite Duke and Patrick.

McPhee Believes The NHL Did Him A Favor In The Entry Draft

On February 6, 2017

When the lottery rolls around in April the Vegas Golden Knights will have an equal opportunity to win the first overall pick as the third worst team in the NHL this season. If that doesn’t happen, they’ll have the chance to move up to second or third with a little ping pong luck. (We’ve got a huge piece coming on all of the odds and probabilities of the lottery, it’ll all make sense before the day comes, trust me.)

But even if the balls don’t bounce in the Golden Knights favor the worst they can select their first player in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft will be sixth. Early picks in the NHL are obviously massive pieces in the building of a winning franchise, but the GM in Vegas believe the simple knowledge of having that pick might be as valuable as the pick itself.

The real nice thing is when you know what area you are picking in it it really helps I think it’s an advantage. We’ve known since September that we are picking in the top 6. So when you put your list together you can really concentrate on that one area. -George McPhee, GM

He makes an interesting point. On June 22nd, four months before the NHL season even began, Vegas knew it would be selecting somewhere between first and sixth. By the time the NHL season got underway, Vegas had it’s general manager and a scouting staff nearly 20 deep.

First Two Picks In This Entry Draft A Clear Cut Above

On February 4, 2017

Number One Nolan or Nico the Knight? It’s a question that some lucky NHL general managers and scouts will answer before June. TSN’s Craig Button consistently projects Nolan Patrick as his number one overall pick. Also, Button continues to be impressed by Swiss skater Nico Hischier. Button believes two teams will be happy to select one of the top prospects. After that though… not so much.

I’m not so sure there’s a difference between the 3rd and the 15th pick… The top two guys, Patrick and Hischier have separated themselves. They’re a cut above. –Craig Button, TSN’s Director of Scouting

Patrick has gone bananas in his return from injury. The Brandon Wheat King center has five goals and 13 points in seven games since his return. Including four helpers in last night’s Wheat King 6-3 victory. Wow, right? Most analysts say it’s easy scouting Patrick. He was on the outside cusp of last year’s draft, so they’re very aware of his talent.

It definitely is a two-player field for the top [North America] ranking and Nolan Patrick was the frontrunner going into the season for the 2017 draft and remains the top candidate for NHL Central Scouting. It’s unfortunate [Patrick] had to miss so much time but it was necessary for him to be able to return at 100 percent. He’s been well known to NHL scouts for the past three years; his game continues to show he’s a top prospect. –Dan Marr, Director of NHL Central Scouting

Patrick may not be deemed a “generational” talent like Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews but has the size and skill to be an NHL All-Star.

There’s no franchise-type player in this draft and even the No. 1 consensus pick, Nolan Patrick, had the injury factor so there are still questions. That said, Patrick is a big, strong center and can skate well. It’s just a matter of his development and getting more experience and strength. But he has all the pro attributes that you’re looking for. –Joe McDonnell, Dallas Stars Director of Amateur Scouting

2017 Prospect Spotlight – Martin Necas

On January 13, 2017