The NHL is a league built on parity. Winning the Stanley Cup is as much about matchups (and luck) as it is the skill of any given team. This year, the matchups have a chance to vary wildly as the league is re-seeding teams at the conclusions of the play-in and first rounds.
Unlike the eight teams with set play-in round matchups, the Golden Knights seed throughout the tournament is dependant on their performance in three round-robin games. The round-robin not only determines who the Golden Knights will play in the 1st Round, but it also determines the opponent in the 2nd round as well.
With four games in the play-in round, there are 16 possible outcomes between the eight teams. Using William Hill odds, we ranked them from most likely to least likely to occur. Then, using those rankings, we are able to show the probabilities of which team the Golden Knights would be most likely to face depending on which seed they end up with in the round-robin. (An explanation of how I arrived at these numbers is at the end of the article.)
| #1 Seed | #2 Seed | #3 Seed | #4 Seed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton (5) | 59.6% | |||
| Nashville (6) | 33.0% | 22.3% | ||
| Vancouver (7) | 19.1% | 28.4% | 10.5% | |
| Calgary (8) | 10.4% | 22.9% | 16.8% | 4.1% |
| Winnipeg (9) | 8.7% | 19.3% | 14.2% | 3.5% |
| Minnesota (10) | 13.8% | 20.6% | 7.6% | |
| Arizona (11) | 26.7% | 18.1% | ||
| Chicago (12) | 40.4% |
As you can see from the chart, there’s a significant advantage to finish atop the round-robin. Finishing first eliminates the possibility of a matchup with Edmonton, Nashville, or Vancouver, while coming in fourth takes away any chance to play Chicago, Arizona, or Minnesota.
Compare that to this chart, how Vegas has played against each of these eight teams.
