Games 1 and 2 of the Stanley Cup Final followed an oddly specific pattern. One team went up by two, they then allowed three straight, then it was tied, then the team with the comeback scored again to finish it off.
For decent stretches in each of the first two games, both teams have had success and played the game under their own terms. Early in Game 1, Carolina had the Golden Knights on their heels, popping rush chances left and right and essentially playing keepaway from Vegas. In Game 2, especially in the middle frame and the first 10 minutes of the 3rd, VGK got their game going by limiting controlled entries, cleanly exiting against dump-ins, and patiently waiting for openings to hit Carolina on the rush.
In the end, each team found a way to win a game, and the series heads to T-Mobile Arena tied for a crucial Game 3 tonight. It may feel like a coin flip, and the William Hill odds have it exactly that way at -110 a side, but many of the advanced stats indicate the Golden Knights improved from Game 1 to 2, and in the exact areas they need to in order to win three more games.
This series is going to come down to two things. First, the effectiveness of Carolina’s forecheck. Second, VGK’s ability to counter and hit the Canes on the rush.
Corey Sznajder from AllThreeZones.com does an incredible job of tracking events inside of games and his “statcaps” help give much more context to games. You can find all of the data I’m about to reference on his Twitter account, @ShutdownLine.
Through the two games, the teams are tied in scoring chances, each with 28. However, in Game 1, Vegas was only able to generate one shot off the rush while creating 15 from forecheck/cycle. In Game 2, they came up with eight shots off the rush, and scored a pair of goals as well as the Barbasev “goalie interference” play.
That’s a massive step in the right direction for the Golden Knights. They actually generated less overall offense, but more in the way they’ll need to in order to score consistently on Carolina.