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The Case Against The Golden Knights Going All-In On Connor Hellebuyck

(Photo Credit: @ilesmadeleine on X/Twitter)

The latest “shiny toy” has hit the NHL trade market and, as always, the Golden Knights are rumored to be in the mix to land him. Yesterday we went over the case for why Vegas should mortgage even more of the future to go get Connor Hellebuyck from the Winnipeg Jets.

Today, we’re doing the opposite and taking a look at why VGK should steer clear of the next blockbuster trade.

Locking in the current window

The Golden Knights have been in a Stanley Cup-contending window for an entire decade. They remain in that window this upcoming season with a pair of extremely important pieces (Mark Stone and William Karlsson) set to play on the final year of their contracts. There is, of course, a real chance that once players like Stone, Karlsson, and Brayden McNabb move on from the organization, the next wave of superstars can keep the window open. However, adding Hellebuyck would make it even more difficult.

Hellebuyck is currently 33-years-old and thus likely only has a few more truly dominant seasons left in him. If Vegas adds him to the mix, they add another player in the current window that will likely not be helpful, if not outright hurtful, to the collection of players expected to carry on and open the next VGK Stanley Cup window. It will be much more difficult for Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Rasmus Andersson, and Shea Theodore to keep the Golden Knights at the top of the league if they are being weighed down by the back end of Hellebuyck’s contract, along with the missing assets spent to bring him here.

The trade of Pavel Dorofeyev was one of the first forward-looking moves that may help keep Vegas’ Cup window open even longer than it otherwise may have. Adding Hellebuyck would completely undo that.

The Case For The Golden Knights Going On All-In On Connor Hellebuyck

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Three-time Vezina winner and 2024-25 Hart Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck sent shockwaves through the NHL yesterday by formally requesting a trade out of Winnipeg. It’s been bubbling under the surface for a while now, but in a statement Hellebuyck released through his agent, the gold medalist made it official, and now the Jets are in an incredibly difficult position.

Hellebuyck is 33-years-old and has five seasons left on a contract set to pay him $8,500,000 per season against the salary cap. He has a full no-move clause this season, which shifts to a 10-team no-trade moving forward.

Simply put, the best goalie in the NHL is on the market for a discount price both via trade and contract. The question is, should the Golden Knights once again be in the running for another blockbuster?

Today, we’re examining the case for going all-in on Hellebuyck. Tomorrow, we’ll flip the script and look at the reasons to stay away. Then, you can decide which argument is stronger.

Upgrading weakest position

Even the most goalie apologetic among us (and I do often fall into that category) can readily admit that the weakest position in the Golden Knights lineup is currently between the pipes. Statistically, the Golden Knights were a disaster in the net during the regular season, finishing nearly dead last in save percentage and goals saved above expected as a team. It improved a bit during the playoffs, but in the end the inability to stop the puck was a huge part of VGK’s undoing, and the current plan is to run it back with the same two guys in net.

Hellebuyck is the closest thing to a guaranteed upgrade that you’ll ever find at the most difficult position to project in the NHL. Even in his worst seasons, Hellebuyck still finishes well above league average in most categories. And, in his best seasons, he’s capable of carrying any team in any game at any time. The Golden Knights are already dangerous as they currently stand. Put the best goalie in the league behind them, look out.

VGK Expected To Be Main Characters In Big Named Offseason Targets

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Well, it looks like the Golden Knights are planning another active summer. Since their Stanley Cup Final exit on June 14th, Vegas has been linked to every big name rumored to be on the move, as they have been since the 2018 offseason. Let’s be honest, it wouldn’t be a true summer without the Golden Knights management making some sort of headlining move. Already, the talking heads are expecting Vegas to be aggressive and make attempts for some of the big names in circling the rumor mill.

They’re going to be a main character here in the next two weeks. – Chris Johnston on The Chris Johnston Show on SDPN

We already know that Vegas is unlikely to find any immediate impact players in the upcoming NHL Draft after bungling their postseason media requirements. Since VGK’s first pick is #95, they’ll be hoping to find a future depth player or two, but don’t expect anything close to NHL-ready prospects. So, they’ll go ahead and do it their way. The perennial aggressive VGK way.

“Main character” is probably another way of saying Vegas is highly interested in Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin and possibly even three-time Vezina trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck. It would take some creativity to acquire either star, but Vegas has made it work in the past, either by shipping out picks or divvying up some unwanted salary.

Eichel Leads All-Massachusetts Team In State By State Matchups

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The Bay State is known for many things, dropping r’s, insufferable sports fans, and a Revolutionary War freedom trail that gets thrown up on nightly in the streets of Boston. Massachusetts also happens to be a top breeding ground for NHL players. The same goes for the Wolverine state. Over the years Michigan has produced 190 professional goaltenders and skaters. As of 2023, the Detroit metropolitan area held the record for most American-born NHL players.

This prompted NHL.com to ask this age-old question…

Some NHL teams would trade away 75% of their roster for either starting lineup. Star centers, hard-shot defensemen, and a two-time Vezina trophy winner.

Some people were immediately sold when NHL.com unveiled Massachusetts’s offensive trio of Jack Eichel, Chris Kreider, and Matt Boldy. Why wouldn’t it? I’m certain the Golden Knights would gladly adjust things around for a chance to ice that top three. Imagine the combination of Kreider’s power play prowess, Boldy’s high-level skill and Eichel’s playmaking abilities. Fans wouldn’t be so concerned about Vegas’ offensive holes for 2024-25.

Are True Number One Goaltenders Necessary in 2024?

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Is Adin Hill a true number one NHL goaltender? Sportsnet doesn’t believe so. However, the Canadian syndicate isn’t high on many starting goaltenders, so Hill shouldn’t take offense.

Sportsnet’s List Of True Number One NHL Goaltenders

  • Sergei Bobrovsky: 58 Starts, 36 Wins, 6 Shutouts, 2.37 Goals Allowed Per Game, .915 Save Percentage
  • Connor Hellebuyck: 60 Starts, 37 Wins, 5 Shutouts, 2.31 Goals Allowed Per Game, .921 Save Percentage
  • Jake Oettinger: 53 Starts, 35 Wins, 3 Shutouts, 2.72 Goals Allowed Per Game, .905 Save Percentage
  • Juuse Saros: 64 Starts, 35 Wins, 3 Shutouts, 2.86 Goals Allowed Per Game, .906 Save Percentage
  • Igor Shesterkin: 55 Starts, 36 Wins, 4 Shutouts, 2.58 Goals Allowed Per Game, .912 Save Percentage
  • Ilya Sorokin: 55 Starts, 25 Wins, 2 Shutouts, 3.01 Goals Allowed Per Game, .908 Save Percentage
  • Jeremy Swayman: 43 Starts, 25 Wins, 3 Shutouts, 2.53 Goals Allowed Per Game, .916 Save Percentage
  • Linus Ullmark: 39 Starts, 22 Wins, 2 Shutouts, 2.57 Goals Allowed Per Game, .915 Save Percentage
  • Andrei Vasilevsky: 52 Starts, 30 Wins, 2 Shutouts, 2.91 Goals Allowed Per Game, .900 Save Percentage

Going into the 2024-25 only nine starting goaltenders are considered elite. To be fair, it’s hard to argue with their list.

A decade ago, in the 2014-15 season, 16 goalies posted a save percentage of .920 or better while appearing in at least 35 games. This past season, a single stopper — Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets — met that criteria. Zoom out, and you’ll see that, from 2009-10 through 2018-19, an average of 9.6 goalies per season played 35 games and went over .920 in that decade-long stretch. In the past half-decade, beginning in 2019-20, that average drops to 3.6. –Ryan Dixon on Sportsnet.ca

Both Teams Confident Entering Thursday’s Elimination Game

Being up 3-1 in a seven-game series can make a team full of confidence. Especially, coming off back-to-back road wins in Winnipeg. The stage is set for the home team to wrap up the series on Thursday night and advance to the second round. But it can’t be that easy.

The message for us is we haven’t won anything yet. You need to win four, right? -Bruce Cassidy

(Photo Credit: Ken Boehlke, SinBin.vegas)

Clearly, the Golden Knights are feeling good about their position and history shows that they should be. In NHL history, only 31 teams have blown a series up 3-1, while 299 went on to win the round.

Five times in Vegas history, the team has been up 3-1 and won 4 out of the 5 playoff series. Twice the organization sealed the deal in Game 5 and the other two series went the distance in Vegas’ favor. Overall, it’s been highly difficult for opponents to overcome a tw0-game series deficit to the Golden Knights. But the Jets don’t seem too worried about the past.

At this point, you just take it one game at a time. We don’t need three, we need one and we’ll go from there. A bounce here, a bounce there and things can go well. I think we have the character in our room to do something special and to do something great. And like we said, we’re looking for one game. We need one game and we’ll move on to the next one and we’ll prepare the same way… We’re inches away from really flipping the script on this. -Connor Hellebuyck, Jets goalie

It hasn’t been a walk in the park for Hellebuyck throughout the first four games of the series. He’s allowing more goals per game, making fewer saves, and has recorded only one quality start in the postseason. The Golden Knights have gotten to the Jets goaltender early and often, but they haven’t broken his or his teammates’ confidence.

We haven’t had good luck so far. We’ve been playing pretty good though, despite all of our adversity. Now, we have to make sure our heads are right and know we’re in for the grind and we’re not out yet. It’s a bounce here, a bounce there. And we’re not asking for a ton, we’re asking for one a game. That’s all we need. We haven’t gotten it yet, and you’d imagine it would show itself at some point. -Hellebuyck

Reaching Three Goal On Connor Hellebuyck Will Advance VGK To Next Round

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

If the first night of the playoffs is any indication of what Game 1 between Vegas and Winnipeg will be like, get ready for an emotional evening. In four games, two home and two away teams won and all but one went under the total. Betting numbers aside, the play was low-scoring, nasty, physical, and tight. If tonight’s game trends the same it could benefit the visiting Jets.

Look at the history of our sport. How many Conn Smythe winners have been goalies? Whoever is going to win the Stanley Cup is going to get outstanding goaltending from the first playoff game on. We know Connor is going to give us that. -Rick Bowness, Jets coach

Without a doubt, goaltending is Winnipeg’s biggest strength. Historically, Vegas has had success against Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, including three victories this season. In 11 total games, the Golden Knights averaged 2.99 goals per game against the 2020 Vezina Award winner. It’s important for Vegas’ offense to continue their scoring average on Hellebuyck. The numbers are clear.

VGK Offense vs. Connor Hellebuyck

  • VGK Record When Offense Scores 3+ Goals: (47-3-2)
  • WPG Record When Hellebuyck Allows 0-2 Goals: (32-4-0)

Fans hear it every postseason; the team that scores three goals will likely win a playoff game. Vegas should feel good about their ability to average three or more per postseason game. The Golden Knights pulled it off 52 times in the regular season and won 47 of those games. However, it’ll be a bigger challenge to average three goals a game in their opening-round matchup with Winnipeg.

Hellebuyck Record Per Goals Allowed

  • Exactly 3 Goals Allowed: (1-12-0)
  • 4 Or More Goals Allowed: (4-9-1)
  • Total Record Allowing 3+ Goals: (5-21-1)

Three out of the four winning teams last night scored three or more goals. Dating back to last season, seven out of the eight Game 1 victors registered 3+ goals. That key number is even more crucial for both Vegas and Winnipeg.

We’re capable of winning. There is no question. We’re here to win. We’re not here to give these guys a little workout and move on to the next round. We’re here to win. -Bowness, Jets coach

Tonight’s game will likely be exciting, intense, and with little room to shoot on net. If Vegas can solve Hellebuyck and get to their three-goal mark, past results suggest success. Hellebuyck’s numbers are outstanding when a game is low-scoring and tight but when a game becomes offensive and open the Golden Knights hold an enormous edge.

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