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Unpacking The Golden Knights’ Lineup Puzzle Without William Karlsson In Game 6

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The Golden Knights will enter a do-or-die Game 6 with a massive hole in their lineup. William Karlsson left Game 5 with a serious arm injury and will not be available for tonight’s game at T-Mobile Arena. Head coach John Tortorella is playing his cards close to the vest, refusing to reveal which player will draw into the lineup or the modified lines.

VGK have played a lot without Karlsson this season. The star shutdown center missed 68 games in the regular season and didn’t join the Vegas lineup until the start of the Second Round against Anaheim. There are three options as a replacement forward to draw in for Karlsson, and unfortunately, none of them are like-for-like swaps.

The most likely player to play tonight is Brandon Saad. The 33-year-old veteran left winger has been Tortorella’s first choice option off the bench most of this postseason. Saad has played five games and stepped in during the Anaheim series when Mark Stone went out and remained in the lineup until the captain returned. His last game was Game 2 of the Western Conference Final on May 22nd.

The player most fans want to draw into the lineup is Reilly Smith. The original Golden Knight had an impactful regular season, scoring 16 goals in 69 games and playing all over the VGK lineup. He’s comfortable playing on the left or right side and has found success in both offensive and defensive roles. He started all six games of the First Round and averaged about 10 minutes of ice time during regulation. Once Karlsson returned, Smith drew out, and he hasn’t played since May 1st.

The final option is a long shot, but he has thrived in that role in his young career. 22-year-old undrafted Braeden Bowman burst onto the scene in November, scoring four goals in his first six NHL appearances. He’s a crafty right-handed player who does most of his damage extremely close to the goal. He probably would need to be used alongside a skilled center and winger to make an impact, but he offers much more upside than Saad or Smith. Bowman has yet to make an appearance in this postseason.

There are a bunch of different line combinations the Golden Knights could go with in the absence of one of their most important and versatile forwards. We’ll start with the lineup from the last time Karlsson missed a game, Game 6 of the First Round.

Three Golden Knights Sitting On The Sidelines Could Make Impact VGK Badly Need

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Through two games in this Second Round series against the Anaheim Ducks, the Golden Knights have struggled to grab hold of the balance of play. For most of both games, the Ducks have controlled the puck, the speed, and the style of the games, which has left VGK searching for answers.

The good news for this particular Golden Knights team is that there are answers sitting on the sidelines waiting for their names to be called.

In the first two games, three different Vegas skaters are averaging less than 11 minutes per night. Keegan Kolesar has played just 20:44, Tomas Hertl has seen a measly 21:56, and defenseman Ben Hutton has been on the ice for 19:50.

Meanwhile, Reilly Smith, Brandon Saad, and Dylan Coghlan are all ready, willing, and able to step in to bring a fresh new look to either a forward line or a D-pair.

Smith is the most obvious solution waiting in the wings for Vegas. Not only did he score 16 goals and 26 points in his 69 regular season games, but the advanced analytics from the First Round indicated that he was among the most impactful forwards in the entire league in chance generation. If Kolesar isn’t able to impact a game with his physical presence, which hasn’t been as pronounced against Anaheim as Utah, it makes perfect sense to bring Smith back into the lineup. And this is before we even get into the obvious chemistry between Smith and William Karlsson.

Next, VGK’s defense corps has struggled to exit the zone quickly and with possession against Anaheim, which is an underlying symptom of the underwhelming offense. One of Coghlan’s most valuable assets is his poise and comfort on the puck. Not only can he help transition VGK from defense to offense as well, if not better, than either Kaedan Korczak or Ben Hutton, he also brings a powerhouse of a shot from the point that fits the current blueprint Vegas has been trying to deploy in the offensive zone.

Finally, John Tortorella has mentioned on multiple occasions that Brandon Saad was playing well before the playoffs and “got screwed” by the decision he had to make to healthy scratch him for the last eight postseason games. Saad’s finishing has left a lot to be desired this season, but there’s no denying his straight-line speed and willingness to get to the front of the net are qualities lacking from the Vegas lineup in this series. Benching Hertl for Saad would be a bold move that would leave a hole on the VGK power play and 6-on-5 lineup, but Hertl’s impact has been so minimal at even strength, it’s hard to imagine Saad could be much worse.

None of these moves on their own will fundamentally change how the series has gone to this point. To achieve that, the Golden Knights need to figure out how to play with more pace to their game, limit Anaheim’s speed in all three zones, and find a way to possess the puck more often and for longer stretches in the offensive zone.

However, fresh players in the lineup often offer a spark. They also grab the attention of those taken out and others who remain in… for now.

If the Ducks can healthy scratch $7 million a year Mason McTavish in favor of Jansen Harkins, who scored eight points this entire season, then the Golden Knights can make an audacious decision as well.

This series is on the verge of slipping away from Vegas if they don’t act and act fast. Lineup changes aren’t the only solution, but they sure feel like an obvious one ahead of Game 3.

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Cassidy Explains Healthy Scratches Of Brandon Saad And Reilly Smith

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Bruce Cassidy is sending a message to his team today through a pair of lineup changes. Both Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith have been taken out for the first time this season. Cole Reinhardt and Alex Holtz are replacing them.

Smith and Saad have combined for 4 goals and 10 assists in VGK’s first 24 games and have each seen their usage drop as the season has progressed. With the return of Mark Stone, Smith was recently dropped into a 4th line role alongside Colton Sissons and Keegan Kolesar, while Saad has mostly remained on lines with Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyev or Brett Howden and Smith.

They’ve played well at times, ok at times. So we’re going to give the other two guys a shot. We know these are veteran guys who came here because they want another shot at a Stanley Cup. We’re not taking that away from them, it’s one game in November where we feel like we’ll get a little juice from these other guys. -Bruce Cassidy

Cassidy said he met with Saad and Smith this morning to talk about the decision, which he described as both performance-based as well as an opportunity to use other options.

Reinhardt, you can make an argument didn’t deserve to come out of the lineup, especially in the role he’s playing. He’s had some good looks, been physical, and draws some penalties. With Holtz, he’s been working hard and waiting his turn. -Cassidy

The schedule also played a small factor in the decision.

I figured we’d do both at once because it’s three games in four days. See if it gives us a little spark in that area of the lineup. -Cassidy

This isn’t the first time Cassidy has tried to send a message like this. In March 2024, with VGK going through a 4-9-1 skid and holding just a three-point lead on a playoff spot with 16 games to go, the head coach healthy scratched both Zach Whitecloud and Nic Hague. Vegas went on to win that night 3-1 over New Jersey and rattled off seven wins in the next nine games. An emergency appendectomy to Alex Pietrangelo put Hague back in the lineup the next night and Whitecloud went back in three games later.

Cassidy often mentions that the biggest “weapon” coaches hold over their players is ice time.

He’s wielding it tonight. Let’s see how the team responds.

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Karlsson, Smith, Saad Line’s Advantage “Yet To Come” Says Cassidy

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As the Golden Knights have gone along through the first five games, they’ve tried two different combinations of forward lines. At first, William Karlsson and Reilly Smith were matched up with captain Mark Stone on a line many expected would dominate. It wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t as impressive as hoped.

Stone was then moved up to the top line with Jack Eichel, while Mitch Marner dropped down to play with Tomas Hertl and Pavel Dorofeyev. This left Brandon Saad as the new linemate for Smith and Karlsson. Through two and a half games as a permanent line, it hasn’t gone well for the trio.

They’ve yet to find the back of the net while on the ice together (Karlsson’s goals were both on special teams), they were out there for each of Boston’s first two goals in the 1st period on Thursday night, and the advanced analytics have them capturing just 31% of the expected goal share in their 24:42 of ice time together. And, to make matters worse, despite the group expected to be utilized a bit more defensively, they’ve posted these less-than-stellar numbers with a 64% offensive zone start percentage.

I think they are a little too far apart right now. They can use a little better support skating onto pucks, a little more direct game. -Cassidy

Cassidy said he had a quick meeting with the line to go over some film to illustrate it to the players.

The selling point to them is to be a little closer together, and things will open up for you as we go. They’re all smart players and they’re still sorting it out. They’re still going to be put in responsible situations. We trust them, and hopefully some offense comes to them. I’m sure it’ll happen. -Cassidy

The head coach also has a theory about why the success of that line may take a while before it materializes.

They’re all elite skaters. Everyone’s got their legs in the league because it’s early. So I think their advantage is yet to come because they’ll keep their legs where some of the younger guys fall off a little bit. -Cassidy

The trio is expected to remain together for tonight’s game, and as long as they keep winning, the line shuffling will stay to a minimum. The hope is that staying more connected will bring more success, because it’s going to be a while before the legs go for many opposing players.

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Call Me Crazy, But (Jason’s 2025-26 Picks)

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Now, Jason’s picks, as well as a smattering of predictions from the SinBin Discord server. If you missed Ken’s, they can be found here.

Call me crazy, but the Golden Knights will lose only twice in the month of November.

This isn’t much of a leap since Vegas annually starts the season off hot under coach Bruce Cassidy. However, this is a slightly different team, so there may be some early chemistry building. By the time November comes around, the Golden Knights will be clicking on all cylinders. Mitch Marner should be settled in, and the defense will have likely adjusted to the absence of Alex Pietrangelo.

My two targeted November defeats are one at home with the Tampa Bay Lightning, while the other is a conference game in Utah. It’s difficult to beat an opponent in their building, never mind twice in four days. Beyond those two games, I see a real possibility of Vegas picking up 22+ points in the second month of action. Oh, and I also expect the Golden Knights to have a competitive October. Don’t be shocked when the local club is comfortably in first place in the Pacific Division on December 1st.

Golden Knights Looking To Buck Concerning Age Trend For Stanley Cup Champions

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A concerning trend resurfaced this week, and it’s one Golden Knights fans are going to want to turn a blind eye to.

Of course, the Oilers did not win the Stanley Cup last year, so for ten straight years each champion had two or fewer forwards over the age of 32 years old. Going into this season, the Golden Knights will have six. Four of them already own Stanley Cup championship rings, and the streaks exist to be broken.

2025-25 VGK’s Senior Forwards

  • Reilly Smith (34)
  • William Karlsson (33)
  • Brandon Saad (33)
  • Mark Stone (33)
  • Tomas Hertl (32)
  • Colton Sissons (32)

In 2023, the Golden Knights cruised to a five-game Stanley Cup Finals victory with two forwards 32 or older on the roster. Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault was 32 when he won the sport’s ultimate individual award. The other forward was 37-year-old Phil Kessel, who suited up for only four of VGK’s 22 playoff game run.

When Vegas knocked off Florida, the average age of their forward group on the ice was 25.5 years old. On this upcoming opening night, the Golden Knights’ average forward age will be a youthful 30.3 years old. While history shows the Golden Knights are above the ideal age, they are still one of the deepest and most talented lineups in the Western Conference.

How Good Really Was The Hertl, Saad, And Dorofeyev Line?

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After the Golden Knights failed to score in their final two games and ended the year with a whimper, there were a lot of potential diagnoses for what went wrong against the Edmonton Oilers. One of them was that the combination of Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev, and Brandon Saad was unable to stay together due to injuries at different points for all three players.

It’s a concept that has been brought up multiple times since by Kelly McCrimmon, Bruce Cassidy, and the players themselves. When the first choice lineup was rolled out to begin Training Camp, the three players were together on a line and played together in the second preseason game before Dorofeyev exited with a lower-body injury.

When describing the decision-making process in building the new lineup with Mitch Marner in the fold, Cassidy referenced the chemistry of Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev as well as Reilly Smith and William Karlsson. Keeping each of those pairs together allowed for the Hertl, Dorofeyev, and Saad trio to reunite as well.

It’s been a while since they had a true look together, and the sample size with the full group on the ice is fairly small. But, how good was that line, and can they be expected to keep it up moving forward?

In the regular season last year, Hertl, Saad, and Dorofeyev shared the ice at some point in 21 different games. They started 14 games as a trio, including 11 consecutive games between March 2-23 in which the Golden Knights went 7-2-2. In 163 minutes and 12 seconds, they outscored their opponents 10-6, posted a Corsi For of 59.5%, and garnered 62.8% of the expected goal share.

These numbers are strong, especially compared to the rest of the team. The Corsi and goal shares were each up 8% from the overall team numbers, while the xG share was more than 10% better.

There is an important number to consider that skews the numbers heavily in their favor, though. Hertl, Saad, and Dorofeyev took 80 faceoffs in the offensive zone, 51 in the neutral zone, and 41 in the defensive zone. In addition to the 66% offensive start starts, they ended the year with a 1.025 PDO, a big bump from VGK’s overall 1.003.

In the postseason, the sample is even smaller, but the numbers stay just about the same in every category except for one. Corsi, shot share, xG share, and offensive zone starts remain well above the team average, but they scored just two goals in 40:43 while allowing two as well. That led to a PDO of 0.926.

In other words, sometimes the analytic dominance led to goals on the board for the Golden Knights, other times (namely, the most important time), it didn’t.

Finally, the two defenseman that the trio shared the most ice time with, by a significant amount… Alex Pietrangelo and Nic Hague.

There’s no debating that the balance of play favored Hertl, Saad, and Dorofeyev when they were on the ice together. However, they were put in extremely favorable positions to achieve the results.

This year, currently sitting as a 3rd line behind a pair of lines that each have two Selke candidates on the (Eichel+Marner and Karlsson+Stone), the offensive opportunities are going to be ripe for the taking once again. They’ll need to do a little better than +4 over 21 games and +0 in the playoffs, though, if the line is going to stay together and remain as celebrated as it has to this point.

**Stats for this article are sourced from NaturalStatTrick.com**

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