We are joined by the founder of Mayor’s Manor, John Hoven. We talk Kings, Dustin Brown, Expansion Draft, punk rock, and a ton more. Hosted by Ken Boehlke and Jason Pothier.
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VGK Points in April
Over 7.5 -110
Under 7.5 -110
VGK to win Pacific Division
-230 (1st)
VGK to win Western Conference
+400 (2nd)
VGK to win Stanley Cup
+1100 (6th)
"I thought it was one of our most complete games. How it's supposed to look." -Cassidy
This really was the perfect get-right game for VGK. No question who was the better team all night long and against a team right up there with them at the top of the conference.
VGK absolutely ate John Klingberg alive on the 6-on-5 situation. Every time he got the puck they threw pressure at him and he cracked over and over leading to the empty netter. VGK win the first of the home and home.
This period was heading the wrong direction for a while at the start, but VGK have turned it around the last few minutes and are looking to extend the lead, not just sit on it.
Photo courtesy of Cox Communications
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PhiSig 150
I have a scientific method to prove Dustin Brown is the least desirable player that will be exposed in the expansion draft. I call it the Dustin Brown Desirability Scale. We need to account for several factors including age of player, length of contract annual cap hit, skill set, and intangibles (leadership, “character”, marketability, etc.) I had a horrible time in my stats class and being a new fan obviously can’t evaluate talent like you or Jason but my model using my poster boy Dustin Brown is roughly as follows:
Age: The ideal age of a player on our roster is 22 which is assigned a starting point of 5. Any player younger gets a +1 because that is a guy we can develop and mold to fit our system. A player gets a -1 for every two years over that age. So Dustin Brown would be – 5 for being 32 and his point total in the age category would be 0. Nolan Patrick and Nico would both get +4 for being 18 and a total rating of 9. A 17 year old prospect would get the full 10
Contract Length: The ideal contract length for our club to retain maximum flexibility is 2 years. Starting points assigned for a 2 year contract is 10. For every year exceeding 2 years that player receives a -3. A one year deal will receive a +3 for its potential use as an attractive expiring contract at the trade deadline Dustin Brown has 5 years remaining so he receives a -9 for a total of 1.
Annual Cap Hit: From my understanding of the expansion draft rules we have to hit 60% of last year’s cap which would put us, I believe, in the ball park of 44 million. We have to draft 30 players so each player’s salary should average 1.48 million so let’s round up 1.5. Again with a starting point of 10 for 1.5 million every 500k under 1.5 is awarded +1 while every 500k above receives a -1. Brown’s annual cap hit 5.875 million so he receives -8 for a total of 1.
Skill Set: This is a tough one for me to judge being new to the game. The method I came up with is to evaluate where a player ranks amongst his peers at the same position in the + – stat. The top 10 would receive + 10, next 10 receive +9 and so on. 91-100 are 0. Players outside of the top 100 receive -1 for each grouping of 10 they fall. Dustin Brown was -4 with tied for 122 of all Right Wingers this year so he receives -2 in the skill set category.
Intangibles: This largely subjective but it does allow for some correction if you feel a player’s high or low rating in the first 4 categories wasn’t reflective of the overall worth of the player. For example off the ice issues for Kane might give him a -5. For simplicity sake this category should only have three point increments -5, 0, and +5. I will award Brown a +5 for his highly touted leadership skills. As Kings fans desperate to unload him keep reminding us he was a captain on two Stanley Cup winners after all.
Dustin Brown Desirability Scale Rating for Dustin Brown
Age: 0/10 Contract Length: 1/10 Annual Salary: 1/10 Skill Set: -2/10
Overall Dustin Brown Desirability (DBD): 0/40
Intangibles Adjustment: +5
Final DBD for Dustin Brown: 5
So in summation Dustin Brown isn’t a complete 0 as originally thought thanks to his intangibles but he’s pretty close and we should avoid him at all costs (unless offered multiple 1st and 2nd round picks). Any future acquisitions should be first run through Dustin Brown Desirability Scale to determine if they meet our rigorous scientific standards. And For the love of god Kings fans stop trying to make Dustin Brown to Vegas happen. You go right ahead and retire his number and erect a statue at Staples in his honor. Hell name your first born Dustin for all I care. Above of all enjoy him for the next 5 years because he ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Get it your thick skulls. WE. DON’T. WANT. HIM.
RJ
The fact that Dustin Brown isn’t a hard zero makes me question your method. The Kings are really going to have to give us value outside of Brown himself to make that pick worthwhile.
PhiSig 150
He technically is a 0 but I was generous in giving him a 5 point bonus for intangibles after listening to non-stop gushing about his leadership and how great a guy he is (mostly by Kings fans trying to sell us a lemon). I love how Kings fans and bloggers think we’re complete morons. The question is how many high picks they’ll give us to take him and even then I’m not sure I want to eat that contract.
PhiSig 150
Since you actually took the time to read it (thank you by the way) what do you think of the system? It started out kind of as a joke to shut up LA fans but then I actually kind of liked what I came up with. Would you add or adjust anything? Is the + – stat a decent criteria to help rate players? Is there a better barometer for skill level? How do you feel about the intangible category?
James
@PhiSig 150
‘Is there a better barometer for skill level?’
Kent Wilson put it best ‘Tearing apart individual contributions is difficult. While we have developed some tools to help factor in the influence of moderating variables like linemates, opposition, tactics and usage, the nature of hockey means assigning outcomes to one particular skater of the 10 that are on the ice at any one time is challenging. This is also why considering a player’s corsi in context of his team and circumstances is vital.’
Phisig150
Corsi is interesting and another stat I’ll have to read up more on. I also liked that it’s nameed in honor of a mustache. I agree no one stat or measurement is perfect or tells the whole story of a player but Dustin Brown Desirability is damn near flawless for expansion team construction purposes.
James
@PhiSig 150
‘Since you actually took the time to read it (thank you by the way) what do you think of the system?’
I think you would enjoy going down the hockey analytics rabbit-hole. This seems right up your alley, PhiSig 150. Jen LC is a good read …
https://jenlc13.wordpress.com/category/nhl-analysis/
‘Is the + – stat a decent criteria to help rate players?’
It’s not a bad statistic, but it needs to be taken in context. Because you can be doing everything right and get a minus.
https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/11/01/behind-the-numbers-why-plusminus-is-the-worst-statistic-in-hockey-and-should-be-abolished/
Phisig150
Great sites. Much of it was over my head but interesting nonetheless. Thanks James. +- has it’s flaws but as a quick and dirty comparison for players I think it does the trick. I would weigh contract and age more heavily anyway. Brown’s contract is horrendous and he’s getting up there in age. I think that outweighs whatever positives he can bring to our club.
PhiSig 150
Also I like to point out you can’t be ok with the club not paying top dollar for a head coach because our team isn’t realistically going to be playoff caliber for years but then at the same time be urging the Knights to draft a guy who’s paid top dollar who’s primary value at this point is his playoff experience. Keep it consistent Uncle Sour. There’s probably at least 10-15 guys on each club that could teach young guys the ins and outs of the NHL and they’d all come much much cheaper. Brown needs to go to a team on the cusp and help them get over the hump (like Washington maybe?) Brown would be wasted on an expansion team and the people singing his praises with a cult like fervor are grossly overestimating how well known he is and his potential to become the face of our franchise. Please no more Kings bloggers as guests. Thanks.
pfh64
Unless I’m mistaken, does LV have to be at a certain cap point after the expansion draft, and would that not be a factor in all choices?
Phisig150
I believe it’s 60% of the salary cap. We shouldn’t have any problem teaching that figure and certainly don’t need Brown’s godawful contract to get there.
James
@Phisig150
Jared Clinton put it best ‘The thing is there may be some team willing to take a shot on Brown at this point if he made, say, $3 million. He put home 14 goals and 36 points in 80 games this past season, which isn’t half bad for a bottom-six winger. The issue is he’s getting paid like one of the top 10 right wingers in the league and it’s awfully hard to find anyone who wants to take on Brown’s monster of a contract at nearly $6 million per season.’
Brown’s contract is so bad he’s become a bit underrated.
Here’s an interesting quote from Bobby Ryan who just scored six goals and 15 points in 19 games.
In fact, when asked if he was worried about the possibility of being left exposed and plucked off the Senators’ roster, Ryan laughed.
“No. Are they going to take $7 million? No,” Ryan chuckled to reporters. “No, I’m good…Not even a little bit (worried).”
James
@Phisig150
Corsi is interesting and another stat I’ll have to read up more on. I also liked that it’s nameed in honor of a mustache.
I would highly recommend watching this video …