SinBin.vegas Podcast #65: John Hoven

I have a scientific method to prove Dustin Brown is the least desirable player that will be exposed in the expansion draft. I call it the Dustin Brown Desirability Scale. We need to account for several factors including age of player, length of contract annual cap hit, skill set, and intangibles (leadership, “character”, marketability, etc.) I had a horrible time in my stats class and being a new fan obviously can’t evaluate talent like you or Jason but my model using my poster boy Dustin Brown is roughly as follows:

Age: The ideal age of a player on our roster is 22 which is assigned a starting point of 5. Any player younger gets a +1 because that is a guy we can develop and mold to fit our system. A player gets a -1 for every two years over that age. So Dustin Brown would be – 5 for being 32 and his point total in the age category would be 0. Nolan Patrick and Nico would both get +4 for being 18 and a total rating of 9. A 17 year old prospect would get the full 10

Contract Length: The ideal contract length for our club to retain maximum flexibility is 2 years. Starting points assigned for a 2 year contract is 10. For every year exceeding 2 years that player receives a -3. A one year deal will receive a +3 for its potential use as an attractive expiring contract at the trade deadline Dustin Brown has 5 years remaining so he receives a -9 for a total of 1.

Annual Cap Hit: From my understanding of the expansion draft rules we have to hit 60% of last year’s cap which would put us, I believe, in the ball park of 44 million. We have to draft 30 players so each player’s salary should average 1.48 million so let’s round up 1.5. Again with a starting point of 10 for 1.5 million every 500k under 1.5 is awarded +1 while every 500k above receives a -1. Brown’s annual cap hit 5.875 million so he receives -8 for a total of 1.

Skill Set: This is a tough one for me to judge being new to the game. The method I came up with is to evaluate where a player ranks amongst his peers at the same position in the + – stat. The top 10 would receive + 10, next 10 receive +9 and so on. 91-100 are 0. Players outside of the top 100 receive -1 for each grouping of 10 they fall. Dustin Brown was -4 with tied for 122 of all Right Wingers this year so he receives -2 in the skill set category.

Intangibles: This largely subjective but it does allow for some correction if you feel a player’s high or low rating in the first 4 categories wasn’t reflective of the overall worth of the player. For example off the ice issues for Kane might give him a -5. For simplicity sake this category should only have three point increments -5, 0, and +5. I will award Brown a +5 for his highly touted leadership skills. As Kings fans desperate to unload him keep reminding us he was a captain on two Stanley Cup winners after all.

Dustin Brown Desirability Scale Rating for Dustin Brown
Age: 0/10 Contract Length: 1/10 Annual Salary: 1/10 Skill Set: -2/10
Overall Dustin Brown Desirability (DBD): 0/40
Intangibles Adjustment: +5
Final DBD for Dustin Brown: 5

So in summation Dustin Brown isn’t a complete 0 as originally thought thanks to his intangibles but he’s pretty close and we should avoid him at all costs (unless offered multiple 1st and 2nd round picks). Any future acquisitions should be first run through Dustin Brown Desirability Scale to determine if they meet our rigorous scientific standards. And For the love of god Kings fans stop trying to make Dustin Brown to Vegas happen. You go right ahead and retire his number and erect a statue at Staples in his honor. Hell name your first born Dustin for all I care. Above of all enjoy him for the next 5 years because he ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. Get it your thick skulls. WE. DON’T. WANT. HIM.

Also I like to point out you can’t be ok with the club not paying top dollar for a head coach because our team isn’t realistically going to be playoff caliber for years but then at the same time be urging the Knights to draft a guy who’s paid top dollar who’s primary value at this point is his playoff experience. Keep it consistent Uncle Sour. There’s probably at least 10-15 guys on each club that could teach young guys the ins and outs of the NHL and they’d all come much much cheaper. Brown needs to go to a team on the cusp and help them get over the hump (like Washington maybe?) Brown would be wasted on an expansion team and the people singing his praises with a cult like fervor are grossly overestimating how well known he is and his potential to become the face of our franchise. Please no more Kings bloggers as guests. Thanks.