Sagarin Ratings Show Vegas On Lower End Of Top Tier

For those who love March Madness or regular season college football, you’re probably aware of well-known statistician Jeff Sagarin. For over 40 years, the Sagarin Ratings have been a staple for tracking NCAA team success.

Sagarin’s ratings are particularly relevant in the world of college football and basketball where, with hundreds of teams in NCAA Division 1 competition, there is no way a team can play against more than a small fraction of its competitors. Therefore, in determining the participants in championship games and tournaments, it is necessary to distinguish between teams that have compiled impressive win–loss records against strong competition and teams that have defeated weaker opponents. –Wikipedia.com

Well, Sagarin decided to branch off with his ratings and cover most mainstream sports, including the one we all love.

Through 57 games, Sagarin rates the Golden Knights as the 9th-best team in the NHL. However, Vegas is ranked 17th based on its recent body of work. One of the reasons for the latest dip is VGK’s 3-10 record against Top 10 teams. Going deeper, Vegas is 7-14 against Top 16 clubs. Nevertheless, Sagarin’s model projects for the Golden Knights to finish in the Top 10 by season’s end.

Sagarin’s Top Ten Predictor

1. Colorado Avalanche
2. Tampa Bay Lightning
3. Carolina Hurricanes
4. Dallas Stars
5. Buffalo Sabres
6. Minnesota Wild
7. Utah Mammoth
8. Montreal Canadiens
9. Washington Capitals
10. Vegas Golden Knights

One element that keeps the Golden Knights out of the Top 5 is their weaker-than-average strength of schedule. Out of all four NHL divisions, the Pacific is far behind the rest. Currently, the Atlantic has three Top 10 teams in the division. The Central has three in the Top 5 and Utah checks in at #8, one above Vegas. The Metropolitan division is closer to the Pacific in terms of power. The Metro has two Top 10 teams, but seven teams ranked in the double digits. Sadly, the Pacific division is ranked even weaker. Only Vegas is rated as a Top 10 team. Edmonton, rated 12th, couldn’t crack the top echelon.

The Pacific division is so poorly rated by Sagarin that the average ranking for all eight teams is 22nd overall.

Sagarin’s Pacific Division Ratings

• Vegas Golden Knights: 9th
• Edmonton Oilers: 12th
• Anaheim Ducks: 20th
• Seattle Kraken: 21st
• Los Angeles Kings: 23rd
• San Jose Sharks: 28th
• Calgary Flames: 29th
• Vancouver Canucks: 32nd

The college hoops enthusiast used his model to rank divisions based on advantage, margin of victory, and strength.

He offers two rating systems, each of which gives each team a certain number of points. One system, “Elo chess,” is presumably based on the Elo rating system used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, “Predictor,” takes victory margin into account. For that system, the difference in two teams’ rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a law of diminishing returns is applied. –Wikipedia.com

It’s possible that the underlying numbers are unfair to the Golden Knights, maybe because of all of the OTLs. Sagarin’s Golden Mean figure, which is a best-case scenario, has Vegas finishing as the 7th-best team in the league. That would have VGK as 1st in the Pacific and 4th in the West.

At this point of the season, that plot has a great chance of playing out with Vegas hosting an opening-round series. That would likely mean a date with Utah, though, who Sagarin says should be favored over the Golden Knights.