Ranking The Possible First Round Matchups From Best To Worst

The Golden Knights are in. With two games left in the regular season, that’s about all we know. VGK currently control their own destiny to win the Pacific Division, but there are scenarios in which they can finish 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in the division, and could slot in as the 1st or 2nd wild card.

These possibilities have created pathways to five different first round matchups. The following is a ranking of the matchups from best to worst for the Golden Knights.

 

Los Angeles Kings
Current Record: 34-26-19 (.551)
HockeyStats.com Matchup Probability: 10%

10/8/25 – LAK 6-5 (SO)
1/14/26 – VGK 3-2 (OT)
2/5/26 – VGK 4-1
2/25/26 – VGK 6-4

Not only are the Kings the easiest and best matchup for the Golden Knights, they are by far the easiest and best matchup for the Golden Knights. Pretty much every issue Vegas has gone through this season, the Kings have experienced the same, if not worse. They struggle to score, they have puck management and matchup issues defensively, their goaltending has been suspect at times, and quite simply, they don’t win very often.

VGK handled the Kings well in the regular season matchups, but both teams are in much different places now than they were when those games were played (especially the one right out of the break when VGK were missing five Olympians). LA has added Artemi Panarin, which certainly makes them more dangerous, but the loss of Kevin Fiala at the Olympics is costly.

The Golden Knights should take a series from the Kings fairly easily. It’s hard to find places in which Los Angeles would hold advantages over Vegas. Maybe goaltending… and even that’s questionable.

Anaheim Ducks
Current Record: 42-32-6 (.563)
HockeyStats.com Matchup Probability: 19%

11/8/25 – ANA 4-3 (OT)
11/22/25 – ANA 4-3 (OT)
2/1/26 – ANA 4-3

Anaheim has given the Golden Knights fits this year, and it’s mostly been because of their ability to score. VGK held leads in two of the three games, and Anaheim quickly clawed them back in each. They have a highly skilled young core that has been supplemented with players like Chris Kreider, Mikael Granlund, Jacob Trouba, Radko Gudas, and most recently, John Carlson.

Vegas hold a pretty significant edge in playoff experience and also play a much more playoff-style type of game when they are at their best. It’s rare for teams that allow as many goals as Anaheim does to go on long runs in the playoffs because goals inevitably dry up at some point for every team in the postseason. That’s where Lukas Dostal comes in. He’ll be making his first postseason appearance, and there’s plenty of reason to believe he can steal a series. But, he’s coming in on a bit of a cold streak, having lost five of his last six starts.

The series would come down to defending. If the Golden Knights can limit the Ducks’ offense, Anaheim will hand over plenty of chances for Vegas to score. Typically, teams that play that way have not had success against VGK in the playoffs, Anaheim will probably be the next to fall into that line.

 

Edmonton Oilers
Current Record: 40-30-10 (.563)
HockeyStats.com Matchup Probability: 8%

12/21/25 – EDM 4-3
3/8/26 – EDM 4-2
3/26/26 – EDM 4-3 (OT)
4/4/26 – VGK 5-1

The most recent game between these two teams has really changed the narrative of this matchup for the better for Vegas. Though Edmonton played without Leo Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, the Golden Knights controlled the game from start to finish with a comprehensive win over a team that has given them major troubles since the playoff series in 2023.

Both teams have changed quite a bit since the last two playoff series, but the styles are still fairly similar, even with John Tortorella behind the Vegas bench. VGK will have to limit the Oilers’ superstars, stay out of the penalty box, and win the games with depth scoring.

Health is going to be the biggest question mark here. If Draisaitl isn’t able to go, the Golden Knights have a big advantage, and this matchup might even be more desirable than the Ducks. But if he plays, and is 100%, beating Edmonton four times out of seven will probably need some help from the Oilers’ goaltenders. Luckily, that’s something they aren’t shy about offering.

 

Utah Mammoth
Current Record: 42-32-6 (.563)
HockeyStats.com Matchup Probability: 62%

11/20/25 – VGK 4-1
11/24/25 – UTA 5-1
3/19/26 – UTA 4-0

Utah is one of the more underappreciated teams in the NHL this season, and it’s mainly because of the three elite teams ahead of them in the division. They are a deep team that skates extremely well and plays with a high-pressure forecheck. The names on the roster aren’t going to blow anyone away, but that’s mainly because the world isn’t fully aware of how good Dylan Guenther is yet. They are 6th in the league in goals against and 12th in goals for, both better than Vegas.

VGK has struggled with teams that forecheck consistently, as it has led to puck management issues and eventually goaltender struggles. However, with Utah’s limited playoff experience (including behind the bench), it’s possible the Golden Knights find the right solutions and limit the Mammoth’s most dangerous weapon.

The excitement in Utah is also a bit scary for a first round series. It’s going to feel like the Stanley Cup Final to the great folks of Salt Lake City when the puck drops on Game 3 of the first round. An amped up crowd often leads to an amped up team, and Vegas has had its own troubles early in games; they don’t need any help. VGK would still probably be a favorite, but this series would truly be a coin flip.

 

Colorado Avalanche
Current Record: 52-16-11 (.728)
HockeyStats.com Matchup Probability: 1%

10/31/25 – COL 4-2
12/27/25 – COL 6-5 (SO)
4/11/26 – VGK 3-2 (OT)

I’m not even going to waste your time with three paragraphs here. The Avalanche are one of the best teams the league has seen in a long time and they are hungry to get back to where they were in 2022. They do have some health issues with Cale Makar and Nazem Kadri currently out of the lineup, but with the cushion in the standings, they are probably playing it safe. VGK would be massive underdogs in this series. The best hope would be the Presidents’ Trophy curse rearing its ugly head at the wrong time for Colorado. The good news is that VGK only need two points in the next two games to avoid this.