(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)
On Boxing Day, the Golden Knights hoist the 5th-best points percentage in the NHL. The road has felt a bit bumpier, though, because they’ve won just the 20th most games of any team.
The most important question, however, is not what has happened in the past, but what may happen moving forward.
We have several methods to help us gather clues, and when they all point in the same direction, as they do, it’s typically a good sign of what’s to come.
First, a look at one of the newer projection models from HockeyStats.com. It currently shows the Golden Knights with a 98% chance to make the playoffs and a 9% chance to win the Stanley Cup. They predict Vegas to win the Pacific by a fairly wide margin while still finishing a whopping 20 points behind Colorado.
Maybe the most interesting part of their model is that it projects the Golden Knights to fall a bit short of their current pace. 44 points in 35 games extrapolates to about 103 points over the full season, but they predict VGK come up a bit short, landing on 101.
MoneyPuck.com’s numbers are similar. They have the Golden Knights as 54.4% favorites to win the Pacific with a projection of 101.5 points, like HockeyStats, six points clear of Edmonton. VGK’s Cup chances are similar at 8.7% and playoff odds are a near lock at 96.3%.
The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn is the most bullish on the Golden Knights. His overall team rating system has VGK as the 3rd best team in the NHL with top-5 ratings in both offense and defense. The model predicts Vegas plays extremely well over the next 47 games, amassing 64 points for a season total of 108.
This projection gives VGK a greater than 99% chance to make the playoffs, an incredible 23% chance to reach the Cup Final, and a 13% chance to win it all for the second time in four seasons.
Finally, the other side of the coin is Hockey-Reference.com’s predictions. The strictly statistically based simulations expect the Golden Knights to finish short of 100 points at 98. That gives them just an 88% chance to make the playoffs, but VGK remain sizable favorites to win the division at 42% compared to Anaheim’s 25% and Edmonton’s 21%.
Where these numbers don’t like Vegas are in their chances to win the Cup. Not only do they have the lowest percentage chance of all models, at 3.8%, but they are actually lower than the Ducks, who sit at 4.9%. In positive news, in at least one of the 1,000 simulations they ran, the Golden Knights finished with 116 points, meaning they’d play at a .766 points percentage the rest of the way.
In the end, every single one of these predictions will probably be wrong. But, it’s better to have the models on your side than against you.
hdbiker7851
Ken – did you see a number of teams are after Fleury to come out of retirement. Based on all that has taken place or the years with the Vegas goalie situation and giving him up for essentially nothing as I recall further makes you question some of the actions on the front office. Didn’t they keep the snake charmer walrus and let Fleury leave instead. Don’t hold much faith in these projection models as there is still a long road ahead. They are capable of winning it all IF they develop the attitude to do so starting with playing 60 minutes of their hockey and stop all this other foolishness having to come alive when they are behind. They can’t sustain that type of play as you know OT and SOs are not their strong suit.
Emmanuel
I agree with most of what you posted hdbiker.
The articles 9% chance to win the Cup is WAY overstated though, I dont think even the Avs have a 9% chance at this point, once the playoff seeding is decided of course THEN there will be teams with a percentage that high.
As ive mentioned before (and you requested elaboration a few articles back), I perceived this team to be “built for the playoffs”. What I mean by that is:
1-they are top heavy, the consensus is deep teams do better in the playoffs, I believe top heavy teams do better
2-lotsa top shelf checking F’s which are invaluble in tight playoff games, though I suspect they are covering for a leaky blueline. My eye test sees low shots against but high danger chances against, though I seem to be wrong statistically on VGK giving up high danger chances (if I recall a peevious article correctly)
3-If a Pietrangelo type is acquired their chances go up (Ive lost faith in the FO since last years deadline though)
4-Im not concerned with the crease, I believe all G are swappable & any of them can get “hot” for a month or so (i.e. the G rides tight team defense).
5-my best guess is they win a round, the 2nd round is 50/50, after that……?
6-im 57YO & ive seen about 60+ games live at the College/IHL/NHL level…I actually prefer home viewing. Im no expert just giving you the 2 cents you requested a while back.
hdbiker7851
Emmanuel – thanks for your insight concerning a team built for the playoff. Your first point suggesting top heavy vs deep teams are better I would seriously question as that means dependency and you and I know anyone is subject to injury – then what. I am not discounting what your observation are only providing thought for the what ifs. The balance of your points requires some major changes which I don’t believe the FO or team is capable of doing at this point. What your suggesting might result in some wins, and they have time to adjust just question their desire to do so or if they feel any of it is necessary. Like I said in all probability I have been around the game longer than you have been on earth and much to my dismay unfortunately that is the truth. The only problem with home viewing is a great deal of hockey happen other than where the camaras are pointing but the replays are very useful. Despite what people think on this site your observations and opinions are just as important as anyone’s else. Take care enjoyed your response.
Emmanuel
I have trouble seeing everything/everyone at once. Where you sit also changes what you can see but you are generally correct on the live/home experience.
My preference has always been 2nd level/1st row/behind home goal. It takes me back to NHL93 unfortunately “making Gretzkys head bleed” doesnt come with admission…….
JB
As you know, there are no shirt 3 on 3 OT or SOs in the playoffs!
SMH
Ah yes, what a terrible decision to trade away MAF, who then went on to have 4 mediocre sub-prime seasons in a row before retiring, with especially poor numbers and results in the playoffs. There is exactly one reason why VGK got back essentially nothing when they traded him – because “essentially nothing” is exactly what every NHL team valued MAF at vs. his contract at the time (correctly, as it turned out). Oh, and all that VGK did without MAF was to win a freaking Stanley Cup! I’m sorry that the above doesn’t fit your narrative of how terrible our front office is, but please continue to enjoy your own version in la-la land, where you are not bothered by little things called facts and statistics, or even a championship for that matter.
NAM
You clearly still have MAF syndrome. You left off the part where they gave away Fleury for nothing after winning a Vezina. The next season after MAF was the only season in history where VGK missed the playoffs. They fired the coach, they buried Lehner (or he did it himself who knows) for a rookie and a B level goalie. With a new coach, new goalies, new system, and a new attitude they won the cup. Would MAF numbers been better if he had played for Cassidy in the cup year, verses playing for an awful Blackhawk team? Probably. Do players get worse over time and then retire? Most do.
Larry
I’ve stated it before, that I don’t believe that this team can win The Cup as presently constructed.
Sadly and unfortunately, I don’t know what they can do to improve their chances with the limited assets they can offer in a trade.
Outside of possibly bring up Lavoie if he ever gets healthy, or possibly even a Cormier who is a puck mover, but I don’t know about his defensive capabilities, what can the Front Office do to make this team better??
They certainly know better than I do, and there is no doubt in my mind they are trying to figure out the next moves.
Emmanuel
The new Cap rules are really going to limit them, the previous deadline/“i have risen from LTIR” shenanigans seem like a thing of the past but you never know with these scoundrels…….
JB
Big bad AVs in town tonight. Just for the hell of it I’m placing a bet on our boys! If Jack and Theo and Wild bill aren’t back, then we don’t have a chance …….. on paper. But, I just have a feeling?
NAM
I said it all off season and it still remains true, in my eyes. This team is built for the regular season. It will get the easy points when most teams don’t care if they drop a game here or there. When teams go into tight checking mode, pack the middle of the ice, physical playoff hockey this team will turtle and basically do nothing on offense. It’s how they are built. Still got over half a season to turn it around, but the ceiling of the non-super-star players isn’t very high and no body is playing over their salary.
JB
See Nam, that’s where I disagree. I see this team as built FOR the playoffs, in my eyes! :)
ID10T w/ a Ba1100n
Gotta make it there first, and can’t keep relying on the gimme point for losing in OT.