Pavel Dorofeyev’s Scoring Has Ground To A Halt; Making The Future Murky

Cold streaks are part of hockey. No matter the player, it’s not uncommon for guys to fall well below their expected output for games, weeks, or even sometimes months at a time.

Earlier this year, Jack Eichel went nine straight games without a goal. Then, he busted out, and it was quickly forgotten. That’s because Eichel is extremely established in the league. For the most part, we know exactly what to expect from Jack each season. So, when he goes nine games without a goal, it’s easy to cast it to the side and think that means he’ll probably score on a better pace than we’re used to at some other part of the season.

It’s a little trickier with younger, lesser-established players. That’s a category Pavel Dorofeyev still fits into.

The 25-year-old winger has played NHL games in each of the last five seasons. However, he’s only truly been a regular for this one and last. A year ago, he posted 35 goals over 82 games, including 22 at even strength. He did it with a 13.8% shooting percentage, which is not extraordinary (that’s a good thing), and playing around 16 and a half minutes a night. It was a stellar first full season in the NHL, and it appeared he picked up right where he left off to begin this year.

Dorofeyev potted a hat trick on Opening Night and went on to rattle off nine goals in VGK’s first 10 games. This time, he did have an extraordinary 27.3% shooting percentage, saw his minute-load increase by nearly a minute per night, was on the top power play unit that was humming, and was leading the team with 66% offensive zone starts.

Then, the scoring stopped.

Dorofeyev has scored just twice in the last 16 games. Both goals came on the power play, which means his last even strength goal was 37 days ago. This is without losing his top power play spot, playing more minutes than he’s ever played before (Avg 18:42), and still receiving 64% offensive zone starts.

His overall shooting numbers are down as well. In the last 16 games, he’s recorded 35 shots on goal and 81 shot attempts. That’s 2.2 shots on goal per game and 5.1 attempts. In the first 10 games, those numbers were 3.3 on goal and 6.6 attempts, in 90 seconds less of ice time per night.

Of course, his shooting percentage is now extraordinary in the other direction. Since October 28th, he’s shooting at just 5.7%.

So, the question that must be answered moving forward becomes, “Is this a blip on the radar or has the league caught up to him and this is closer to what he is?”

Obviously, the answer will fall somewhere in between. It always does, but we don’t know where in between it’ll be.

VGK’s future kind of depends on where it does, though.

Currently, Dorofeyev is on a cheap $1.835 million deal. His 11 goals have already offered surplus value on that contract. This summer, he’s a restricted free agent with arbitration rights. He’s already coming off a 35-goal year and even if he goes the rest of the year shooting 5%, he’s likely to hit at least 20. His agent is probably already salivating.

Dorofeyev looked to be one of the few true bona fide goal-scoring options on the roster… until he stopped.

If the Golden Knights pay him that way, he has to live up to it. Right now, in the front half of the season on a cheap deal, going 16 games without an even strength goal isn’t the end of the world. If he’s making $7 million next season, it’s not going to fly.

Figuring out Dorofeyev’s true goal-scoring ability in the league will be one of the most important issues the Golden Knights have to solve this season.