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Optimistic Trend Leans Toward Vegas After Ugly 7-1 Defeat

There’s no getting around it, Sunday’s loss was a brutal one for Vegas. Losing 7-1 was not what anyone was expecting, including the Avalanche. Golden Knights fans need to remember that it was just one game in hopefully a long series. Vegas lost on the road to an excellent team that was well rested and highly motivated to win an important home game. But, even after falling in the opening game of the Second Round, the Golden Knights are still in good shape. Historically, they’re in great shape.

Since 2001, teams coming off of a Game 7 victory tend to perform better when they advance to play a team coming off a four-game sweep. It’s the classic rested vs. tested argument.

In a 20 year span, only fix series were matched up when one team swept their last series took on a team off a Game 7 victory. The Vegas and Colorado series is the sixth occurrence. Up until this postseason, organizations that needed a Game 7 to advance were undefeated.

Teams Coming Off Game 7 vs. Teams Coming Off A Series Sweep (2001-Present)

2001 Western Conference Finals: COL (Coming off Game 7) clinched series 4-1 over St. Louis (Coming off a sweep)

2003 Stanley Cup Finals: NJ (Coming off Game 7) clinched series 4-3 over Anaheim (Coming off a sweep)

2009 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals: CAR (Coming off Game 7) clinched 4-3 over BOS (Coming off a sweep)

2019 Eastern Conference Second Round: BOS (Coming off Game 7) clinched 4-2 over Columbus (Coming off a sweep)

2019 Eastern Conference Second Round: CAR (Coming off Game 7) clinched 4-0 over NYI (Coming off a sweep)

*2021 West Division Final: Vegas (Coming off Game 7) vs. Colorado (Coming off a sweep)

Teams Coming Off Game 7: (5-0)

It’s certainly shocking that in five previous situations the team with more games under their belt came out on top. The obvious answer would be that too much rest impacted the losing club but there are always other factors. If the Golden Knights can win four out of the next six they will keep the streak alive and be the sixth team to advance to the next round

One reason why teams coming off a Game 7 victory have found success against their next opponent is largely because of the results from Game 1. Teams coming off a sweep are 1-4 against teams coming off Game 7 in the first game of a series. Unfortunately, Vegas wasn’t able to capture the first contest against Colorado but it may not matter. In the 2009 playoffs, Carolina lost the first game to Boston and ended winning the series in seven games. The Golden Knights have the ability to accomplish that, and maybe in fewer games.

Hey, I know Vegas lost by six goals in a dreadfully lopsided game but there’s still room for optimism. A visiting team’s mission is to split the first two games of the series. In most cases, it’s difficult capturing one so the first two-game split is highly important for Vegas. Being in a situation that they can still make that happen should give confidence to the players and fans.

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20 Comments

  1. George

    I think Vegas win a game or two, NOT the series

  2. Daryl

    The only chance VGK has to win this game is to completely forget about game 1 and come out and play hockey. If any part of game 1 is in their head, including tge Janmark hit, VGK loses. Another bright side from game 1….we got rid of Reaves and can now play someone who actually plays hockey

  3. THE hockey GOD

    remember the TREND is your FRIEND.

    Hey that is supposed to work on my crypto currency, and for some strange reason it doesn’t. I hope it works here.

    Remember the trend of winning game 1 after a long 7 game series was also friendly.

    I’m channeling Fred Shiro, since PDB may have a hole in his magic bag of tricks. Hey FRED pick up the phone.
    PICK up the phone
    PICK UP the phone
    PICK UP THE PHONE!
    (maybe he’s screening his calls?)

  4. THE hockey GOD

    Jesse Granger
    @JesseGranger_
    ·
    41m
    Golden Knights lines:

    Pacioretty—Stephenson—Stone
    Marchessault—Karlsson—Smith
    Sikura—Roy—Tuch
    Carrier—Brown—Kolesar—(Reaves-out)

  5. DOC (Go Knights Go)

    DEJA VU, all over again!

    Just like round one, the Knights are down 0-1.

    And once again, (other than a game 7), this will be the most important game of the series.

    Lose and go down 0-2, the path will be very difficult ….. BUT:

    WIN and that will neutralize the game 1 loss, and gain home ice advantage.

    Also, since it seems very unlikely that Lehner plays another significant game in playoffs. Why not make Logan Thompson the backup and be done with it?

    Time to start getting ready boys!!!!!!!

    • Daryl

      Never thought I would agree with you

    • Well DOC you hit the nail on the head – well put my man – give credit where credit is due. I never thought I would read from you ,”Also, since it seems very unlikely that Lehner plays another significant game in playoffs. Why not make Logan Thompson the backup and be done with it?”. Does than mean you have given up on the walrus? – Certainly not worth the 5 mill a year for 5 years they paid him – he is obviously smarter than Vegas management – nice retirement package. Here’s to a win tonight and leveling the playing field.

    • DOC (Go Knights Go)

      Well, what do you know!

      They DID bring up Thompson as the back up!

  6. Julie

    The weather changes every 10 minutes in Colorado. Things can change for the better for Vegas. I have my Valiant DVD looping all day for extra mojo. I noticed that tawdry souvenirs are a hot topic, so I sent Elvis-In-Vegas bobbleheads to the entire Avalanche team/staff/owners. I wrote their names on each one in pink glitter pen. I think they will enjoy that.

  7. Howard

    All this for nought unless VGK plays “Heavy.” Refer to Islanders/Bruins game yesterday. Ken calls this “Boring Hockey.”

    Cycle, Cycle, then afterwards, Cycle more, DO NOT TAKE BLUELINE SHOTS, just cycle and cycle. AVS hate to be played this way, Make AVS commit to forecheck, play from behind the net in the cycle – half board, behind net, half board..

    AVS like to get guys up ice – they ‘cheat up.’
    If VGK continues to 2 line pass attempts, this will be a 4 game sweep for The AVS.

    Basically, think how we played against Dallas last year except NO BLUELINE shots because one long rebound, AVS will get you up ice. Half board – point, half-board, point, behind net, centering, KEEP DMEN back, only pinch in when behind net!

    Pretty simple hockey. Let’s see if VGK’s EGO can accept that there’s not way they can win a “track meet” here.

    • Howard – time to think positive – IF they can get their shit together they can make this a series – not saying they will prevail in the end but at least show up and play some hockey. You are absolutely correct concerning a track meet I am sure you saw McKinnon score he went around Vegas players like they were statuses. They need to put game one in the rear view mirror never to see again. First order of business for game 2 is the right winning attitude. To bad Reaves only suspended for two games – his playing going forward after that is in PDB hands as he is a liability to this team. They have other heavies to replace him if they think that is necessary. Here’s to a win this evening – not a Track Meet ( equates to a loss) but a win one way or another.

  8. THE hockey GOD

    Jesse Granger
    @JesseGranger_
    ·
    45m
    Based on yesterday’s practice it appears Dylan Sikura will be replacing Janmark on the third line, not Cody Glass.

    Nothing official, just observations from drills and line rushes

    cowabunga has been MIA in last two practices, a game time decision like no. 26

    • Daryl

      Sikura didn’t look too bad last time he played, did he?

      • THE hockey GOD

        he didn’t do much, but he’s small and he’s fast, he has a quick release.

        inexperienced though.

        A better bet than Glass or Dugan though. Quinny was another option but Skikura has more experience. And he’s faster than Jurco who probably has most experience in their system. Both are on the smallish size.

        We’ll see if he can bring his A game tonight if 26 can’t go.

        • Daryl

          I like his speed… I think it’s huge if our backend guys can come close to hang with the Avs 34d and 4th lines

    • Julie

      HG, SB Nation says Janmark is in the line up… misprint?

      • THE hockey GOD

        idk Julie, here is latest i got

        Source: TSN Canada
        Jun 2, 2021, 3:44 PM ET
        Mattias Janmark LW, Vegas Golden Knights
        Mattias Janmark will be a game-time decision in Game 2 of the second round against Colorado on Wednesday.

        Janmark didn’t take part in the team’s optional morning skate after he didn’t practice on Tuesday. He was injured in Game 1 versus the Avalanche on Sunday.

  9. DOC (Go Knights Go)

    Where ya at Ken!

    No game day write up?

  10. DOC (Go Knights Go)

    GAME OF GAMES ! (so far)

    Game 1 means nothing (history)

    Game 3 means nothing (future)

    TONIGHT means EVERYTHING !

    No excuses …. JUST DO IT !

    Also, No I don’t give up on players, be they Lehner, Revo or anyone else. I simply write what I see is most likely happening, right now.

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