(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)
We’re basically down to two. Unless something catastrophic happens in the final 10 games, the Golden Knights will win the Pacific Division and take on either the Minnesota Wild or the St. Louis Blues.
St. Louis has charged back into the picture with a nine-game winning streak making up an incredible eight points in the last 10 games on the Wild. Minnesota still holds the edge due to their game in hand with the teams at an identical 87 points. With the Blues charge and Minnesota’s injuries, it really is anyone’s guess which team will be coming to T-Mobile Arena for the first round.
So, which one should Golden Knights fans be hoping for? Let’s dig into the numbers to find out.
Season Series
3-0-0 vs MIN (+8 GD)
2-0-1 vs STL (+2 GD)
Vegas won all three games against the Wild by scores of 3-2, 4-1, and the most recent 5-1, but the series with Minnesota has a massive asterisk on it. In each of the first two games both teams were playing the second of a back-to-back, then in the final game, the Wild were while the Golden Knights were not. Injuries played a major part as well, but the Wild have struggled more than most playoff teams without rest. Minnesota is 4-6-1 on the second of back-to-backs while they are 37-22-4 when they have at least one day. Nonetheless, the Golden Knights handled Minnesota every time and for most of all three games the Wild looked non-threatening in the offensive zone.
The games against the Blues were certainly more competitive this year than those against Minnesota. VGK beat St. Louis in the second game of the season 4-3 but fell behind early in that game and had to stave off a furious surge late to hang on. Then, the two teams played consecutive games against each other, and the road team won each. Vegas needed two 3rd period goals, both scored in the final 3:10 of the game to send it to OT but eventually lost in shootout. Mark Stone scored 19 seconds into the final game, which Vegas ultimately won 4-2. VGK Preference: Minnesota
Special Teams
Minnesota: 20.4% PP (21st) / 71.4% PK (31st)
St. Louis: 21.4% PP (19th) / 73.0% PK (29th)
To be a true threat to the Golden Knights, any opposing team will have to stop the #1 power play in the NHL. Both the Wild and Blues are terrible on the penalty kill, each ranking near the bottom of the league. The Blues had more success against the VGK PP than Minnesota did this year. Vegas scored two goals on six opportunities against the Blues while converting on four of seven vs the Wild. In addition, the Blues PK has been much better since the 4 Nations break killing at about 79%. Minnesota’s numbers have continued to plummet as the year has gone on.
On the flip side, neither team is all that potent on the power play either. Penalty kill may be VGK’s biggest weakness this season clocking in at 75.5% and 71% since 4 Nations. Vegas killed all four Wild power plays in the three games this season while allowing two goals on six chances to the Blues. VGK Preference: Minnesota
Goaltending
Filip Gustavsson – 29-17-4, .916 SV%, 2.51 GAA, 19.5 GSAx
Jordan Binnington – 25-21-4, .901 SV%, 2.70 GAA, 5.3 GSAx
Maybe a bit surprising, but these numbers are not close at all. Gustavsson has been the far better goalie this season and despite the team’s fall off recently his performance has remained steady. Gustavsson played in just one of the three games against the Golden Knights and allowed four goals.
Binnington’s numbers haven’t been nearly as strong, and in many ways, he’s barely even above average, but there’s a history of playing great in big games that is concerning for any playoff opponent. He was dominant in the 4 Nations final for Canada and denied Bruce Cassidy a Cup back in 2019. However, since his magical Cup run, he hasn’t been particularly good in the playoffs. He’s posted a 4-10-0 record, allowed 44 goals in 15 games, and has just a .904 save percentage. VGK Preference: St. Louis
On Paper Healthy Lineup
Minnesota
Kaprizov-Rossi-Zuccarello
Boldy-Eriksson Ek-Johansson
Nyquist-Hartman-Hinostroza
Foligno-Gaudreau-Brazeau
Brodin-Faber
Middleton-Spurgeon
Chisholm-Bogosian
St. Louis
Neighbours-Thomas-Bolduc
Holloway-Schenn-Kyrou
Snuggerud-Dvorsky-Buchnevich
Toropchenko-Faksa-Joseph
Broberg-Parayko
Fowler-Faulk
Suter-Tucker
Both teams are extremely deep and have much better rosters than their records indicate. Minnesota has been without Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek for a while but both are expected to return for the playoffs. The trade deadline acquisitions of Gustav Nyquist, Vinnie Hinostroza, and Justin Brazeau have filled out their bottom six as well. When both Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon are in the lineup, the d-corps is fairly formidable too.
St. Louis looks like a completely different team since Dylan Holloway started scoring goals. The offer sheet acquisition from the Oilers has 10 goals and 22 points in the last 18 games and now has the Blues’ top six looking much more dangerous. Jimmy Snuggerud, a 1st round pick in 2022 was recently added to the lineup and the Hobey Baker finalist could be an x-factor in the playoffs. Defensively, Colton Parayko is the best player on either team’s blue line by a fairly wide margin, but the depth of the Blues’ D-pairs is a bit suspect. VGK Preference: St. Louis
Current Form (Record Since 4 Nations)
Minnesota: 8-9-1 (.472) 23rd in NHL
St. Louis: 15-2-2 (.842) 1st in NHL
There’s still time for this to change as the Wild have eight games left to play and the Blues have seven, but the two teams are heading in completely different directions. The Wild have been in somewhat of a free fall since their red-hot start. Minnesota got off to a 19-5-4 start to the season which had them atop the entire NHL on December 11th. They dropped a game 7-1 to the Oilers the next night and have been a miserable 22-23-1 since. They are about to embark on the New York road swing (at NJD, at NYR, at NYI) before coming home to face Dallas.
The Blues are the complete opposite. St. Louis fired its coach after a 9-12-1 start and were looking dead in the water on Thanksgiving. Jim Montgomery has turned it around though and the team seems to be getting better and better. The nine game winning streak is getting all the headlines currently but they were 8-3-3 in the 14 games before it which means they are 17-3-3 in the last 23. They’ve outscored their opponents by 34 in the last 23 games and have flipped their goal differential from a season-low of -20 to their current number of +17. Compare that to Minnesota’s -9 and it’s pretty clear which team is the better option for VGK in the first round. VGK Preference: Minnesota
Larry
Major X-factors are Kaprizov and Eriksson -Ek…how healthy will they be upon their return… well-rested and energized or full of game rust?…..Erikkson-Ek is a major concern for the VGK defensemen as he stations himself in front of the goal….and Kaprizov is simply one of the top 5 players in the NHL!
Frank
Bring em on! VGK should be able to handle either of these teams. The real test will be coming in round 2. We’ll see, but as long as the scoring and the goaltending hold up, we’ll be extremely tough to beat.
Brad
Lol don’t look past the blues or you will end up on the ground looking up
knights fan in minny
get a clue brad
Nick Landry
“Get a clue”? Hey, that’s great. Y’all just keep on thinking about that second round matchup you’ll be in after rolling over St. Louis. I sure hope the guys in black and gold are thinking the same way.
JB
I don’t really care who they play n the first round. To win the cup you have to beat whatever team is put in front of you, period!
Richie-Rich
Losing in the first round to either of these two will be a huge disappointment to the team and the fan base. If the series goes to 6, that will itself be a major disappointment. I would lean toward a sweep against either of these 2 teams, but it is more likely a 5 game series win for Vegas.
NAM
Doesn’t matter who they play. At the end of the day if you ain’t first you’re last.
Cobo
St Louis is a different team than the one you played earlier in the season. Might be running into a bulldozer
ThG
Jeffrey Sutton
What it really comes down to is which team offers more Pride gear from their vendors. Obviously this will be the tougher opponent. Can we get some information on this?
knights fan in minny
call the arena dumb ass are you stupid
hdbiker7851
If Vegas comes with their “A” game either of the two won’t matter. However, we have all seen Vegas at their worst and there is nothing to say this couldn’t happen again – that is not being negative it is being realistic and only pointing out the obvious. I am not a big fan of jumping the gun as the potential exists where anything could interrupt what are hopeful expectations.
Brad
I hope we get you boy. By game 7 Vegas will be running from the blues
knights fan in minny
you are a clown brad
Bp
Well don’t try and post anything on this site they just keep up what they want
Nick Landry
Really? Let me find out.
A couple of quick observations about this piece…
Regarding optimal healthy lineups, Nick Leddy will be skating with Ryan Suter on that third pairing, not Tyler Tucker. Rating the Blues D as being inferior to the Wild is a mistake. After acquiring Suter as a free agent and trading for Cam Fowler, the Blues’ D has been stellar. I wont bore you with the stats but if you research it you’ll see what I mean.
Also, there is no way Monty sits Nathan Walker and pushes Joseph down to the fourth line. The Walker-Faksa-Toropchenko (the WTF line) is a major catalytic entity. Walker is a pest who pisses people off and gets them off their game. He won’t be riding the pine for a stone rookie who was playing college hockey last week (Snuggerud).
Congratulations to the Knights on their outstanding record this season. I sure hope all their players are gearing up for that second round opponent!
William Goit
St Louis in 7. The difference will be Bennington and the way the Blues play the trap game.
Pistol Pete
As in this at the expense of a forechecker? Good luck to the Blues if they play us that is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutral_zone_trap
Pistol Pete
As in sacrifice a forechecker like the Devils in the 90’s? Good luck to the Blues should they play us.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutral_zone_trap
Pistol Pete
Sorry for the duplicate post. The original did not post for a couple hours per the issue they were having before.
Nick Landry
I’m not sure who wins in this scenario but you are absolutely correct about the “trap” reference. Montgomery has St. Louis pushing everything to the outside and clogging up the middle in a style that’s reminiscent of the old “neutral zone trap” configuration that brought a couple of Stanley Cups to New Jersey a number of years ago.
In the game against Colorado last Saturday and trailing by a goal, the Avs pulled their goalie with about two minutes left in regulation and put a sixth attacker on the ice. They never even got a legitimate shot on goal and the Blues held on for an impressive road win against a very good hockey team.
ThG
Someone, who remains in hiding, said Hertl would be back on ice by now. I guess their crystal ball(s) are busted.
Pistol Pete
“said Hertl would be back on ice by now”
Said or suggested he could be/hoped he would be? In any case you are no doubt happy that Hertl will not be playing this week so that you can stalk over it. Once again you put your personal desires over the well being of the team. That is all I have to say on this.
ThG
“That is all I have to say on this.” I doubt it, I have no personal desires stated. Just the facts. And they are not in your corner buster. Now put that tin foil hat back on and start acting like a man for once ! You own your own flip flops, Hank. Mr Inside information ! BHA HA HA HA HA !
The hockey God
The new A’s Vegas ball ark rendering is horrble. It looks more like an opera house than a baseball stadium, Which is reflection of lack of common sense and traditional values by the so called city planners, A bunch of girly booys it appears,
Pistol Pete
Off topic:
Opera house? Let me see you must mean this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sydney_Opera_House
Does ThG/The hockey God/Donald J Trump/ George V/other ever ever have anything nice to say about anybody or anything ever? TS?
The hockey God
even P P can see the veiled reference ! There is hope yet !
JB
Tonight e can basically eliminate the Oilers from any chance at division title. Let’s get it done boys!
knights fan in minny
Connelly signs entry level deal
Pistol Pete
I believe the AHL minimum age 20 rule only applies to players in one of the three Canadian major juniors leagues. Therefore Connelly can drop out of college and play in Henderson next year if the VGK sanctions that. I think he needs more time at Providence. He started pretty strong but stagnated in this his freshman year. 13 points in 23 games is just ok not great. We’ll see how he does in camp.
ThG
VEGAS (April 1, 2025) – Vegas Golden Knights General Manager Kelly McCrimmon announced today, April 1, that the team has signed forward Trevor Connelly to a three-year, entry-level contract.
Connelly, 19, spent the 2024-25 season at Providence College where he appeared in 23 NCAA games with the Friars. Connelly produced 13 points (4 G, 9 A) as a freshman at Providence and helped his team to a 21-11-5 record and an appearance in the NCAA Tournament before falling to the University of Denver. Prior to his time at Providence, the forward spent two seasons with the Tri-City Storm of the USHL, where he recorded a total of 125 points (55 G, 70 A) in 109 contests. Last year with the Storm, Connelly finished second in scoring in the USHL with 78 points (31 G, 47 A) and was named to the league’s Second All-Star Team.
another CA bust signing? FO should stick with Western Canadians. That is where all the good Hockey players come from. Like Gordie Howe, among many others.
Pistol Pete
But then you have Jason Robertson from CA and Austin Mathews from AZ. Not saying Connelly is either of them just citing the geographical origin. The Tkachuk brothers also hail from AZ if I am not mistaken albeit with their dad’s heritage.
ThG
VGK didn’t sign JR or AM, or Tkachuk brothers, try to stay on topic and stop spinning out.
Now put the other one they did sign into the basket, and try to follow along. Ok ?
Pistol Pete
VGK does not get high picks due to finishing up in the standings every year. That is the overriding issue as far as the quality of their signings. Your point was they should stick with signing Western Canadians. They figured Connelly was the most talented pick left by the time their turn came. Not attacking you just offering a down to earth rational response.
Pistol Pete
Come to think of it they had like three chances to sign Robertson that year and Dallas finally pulled the trigger on him. Nobody had him in the first round.
ThG
quit the spin- how well is BB working out ? Hank.