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How Much Lost Offense Can Vegas Make Up?

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Since their arrival, Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone have been Vegas’ two statistical heavyweights. The captain is a point per game (0.99) player and his linemate isn’t far behind (0.86), so it’s safe to say their impact will be missed. Without Pacioretty and Stone for an extended amount of time, the Golden Knights will need to find scoring from within to make up for that massive loss of offense.

% Of Team Offense From Pacioretty and Stone

2018-19: (246) VGK Goals Scored
Pacioretty (32) and Stone (5) combined for 11% of team goals

2019-20: (224) VGK Goals Scored
Pacioretty (32) and Stone (21) combined for 25% of team goals

2020-21: (190) VGK Goals Scored
Pacioretty (24) and Stone (21) combined for 24% of team goals

In a full NHL season, Pacioretty and Stone score on average a quarter of Vegas’ goals. While they’re out, other Golden Knights players will have to make up for that lost offense. All fingers will point to the Misfit line but coach Pete DeBoer can’t rely solely on them. Since the inaugural 2017-18 season, the trio of William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith have added offense on a nightly basis. Which is a big reason why all three players have scored the most points in franchise history. The Misfit line will need to find ways to add more but Vegas’ coach is already expecting a quarter of his offense to come from them as it is.

Misfit Line Contribution

2017-18: 92 Goals (WK 43, JM 27, RS 22)
Misfits combined for 34.5% of team goals

2018-19: 68 Goals (WK 24, JM 25, RS 19)
Misfits combined for 28% of team goals

2019-20: 64 Goals (WK 15, JM 22, RS 27)
Misfits combined for 28% of team goals

2020-21: 46 Goals (WK 14, JM 18, RS 14)
Misfits combined for 24% of team goals

The construction of the Golden Knights roster is heavily reliant on the top-six and somehow the team will need to replace the missing offense in order to set up for a late playoff run.

Star defenseman Alex Pietrangelo signed with Vegas to play with some of the NHL’s best players and annually compete for a Stanley Cup. Under his experience and leadership, the Golden Knights should be able to stay above water without their two offensive giants. In 2019, Pietrangelo’s St. Louis Blues shocked the hockey world by besting the Boston Bruins in seven games for the Stanley Cup. It’s almost lore at this point but everyone remembers St. Louis climbing out from the bottom in January only to reach the finals in May. Down the stretch, St. Louis won 11 games in a row. During that regular season run, Pietrangelo added .64 points per game (4 assists, 3 goals) in 11 contests. When his team needed him the defenseman delivered. Golden Knights fans witnessed Pietrangelo kick it up a gear and become the team’s best player in the postseason.

Pietrangelo may not score the goals but he’ll create and facilitate enough to impact the offense. Add in Shea Theodore, Alec Martinez, and the rest of the defense, the Golden Knights should expect plenty of scoring from their blue line. To get through the murky injury waters, Vegas will need the defense to contribute as much as they did last season.

Evgenii Dadonov has a total of six periods under his belt as a Golden Knight but all of a sudden he has become an extremely important piece. Without Pacioretty and Stone, Vegas will quickly need significant impact from Dadonov. The veteran has succeeded in a top-six role in the past so hopefully, an elevated role will benefit the Golden Knights sooner than later. Over the years Dadonov has bumped into some lengthy scoring streaks, good and bad. With Florida, the 32-year-old had several three-game and a handful of four-game scoring streaks. Last season in Ottawa, Dadonov registered two multi-goal games and twice scored on consecutive nights. Unfortunately, there have been ugly streaks as well. Over his career, Dadonov was held scoreless for seven, eight, nine, and 19 games in a row. The Golden Knights cannot afford a 19 game drought from any of their top forwards.

It’s unlikely Vegas will make up for the full 25% of missing offense but the goal should be to keep their heads above water until the team is fully healthy. When that day comes, and no matter what their position is in the standings, a stacked Vegas deck can defeat any Pacific Division standing in their way.

There’s a great scene in the movie Moneyball depicting Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane (played by Brad Pitt) and the A’s scouting staff sitting around a table attempting to construct a winning lineup. Oakland had previously lost two vital free agents and the plan was to replace those players. Beane was realistic and understood he couldn’t replace star players but he could replace their production with several, less talented players. That strategy can be used by the Golden Knights in their current situation. The front office can’t replace Pacioretty and Stone with players like Pacioretty and Stone. It’s expensive and difficult to match talent but it’s possible to try and replace their statistical contributions with a group of players. Will it be Mattias Janmark, Chandler Stephenson, Nolan Patrick, Peyton Krebs or will it be someone unsuspected that overachieves in the absence of Vegas’ top forwards?

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27 Comments

  1. Vlad

    Mcrimmon says Krebs will save them. The same Krebs who has about 2 shots on net in last 10 games. The same player who people can’t wait to point out had 5 points in 2 games with the HSK but fail to point out they were all 2nd assists and also he was in the ice for every goal that got scored against them. Laughable

    • Pistol Pete

      Krebs has played 7 AHL games and how many NHL games 6 or 7? It’s just too early to tell. How about the “mighty” Cole Caufield who is 0/0/0 in 4 games this season and 5 pts in 14 career games, are you giving him more time?

      • Pistol Pete

        Correction:
        0 G/0 A/-2 (4 games this season)
        4G/1 A/-3 (14 career games)

    • Richard Santomauro

      Krebs is what? 21? I’ve seen him get pushed off the puck quite a bit since game 1 in the preseason. Sure, he has a lot of future potential upside. But, he isn’t going to fill the shoes of Patches or Stone. That’s silly and McC is an idiot if he actually thinks that.

      • Vlad

        Krebs led whl with worst plus/minus his last 2 years. And that’s exactly what you see when he played with the HSK. On the ice for every goal against. In the world juniors he was beyond brutal. There isn’t even a glimmer of hope

    • He also said
      The walrus if the future of the golden knights- dream on and get off the sauce.

      • Richard Santomauro

        My opinion only.

        McCrimmon is going to eventually show himself for what he truly is, nothing more than a Junior Hockey success story that had no business being put into such a high powered slot in the Knights organization.

        Foley will soon tire of how badly this guy has torn down the club and he will be gone sooner rather than later.

        All of this talk about the club getting better and better and better has been nonsense. The Club has gotten older and older and older and worse.

        • Vlad

          Exactly! He’s cleaned house of almost every person that was there and they haven’t gotten any better.

          Mcrimmin is a legend in his own mind. Just ask him

          Foley will turn on him just like he did to gallant and fleury.

  2. Tim

    I know the coaches and management know much more then a dumb shit like me but I’ve got a question. When the American Football League started in 1960 there main objective was scoring to get the fans interested and I see a kid down in AHL hell who last year was the 8th highest defensive scorer in the KHL. This Minomanov kid can play and given a chance would out perform half of our D-Man unit. First let me say we have a lot of very good D-Men some young and some old and that’s Minomanov’s problem he really can’t get a chance. They say his D is a little weak so what we need offense and if you don’t think he couldn’t outscore McNabb, Coghlan, or Hague as the THG would say I’ll eat my hat.

    • THE hockey GOD

      @ TIM NHL lanes are blocked, AHL lanes are wide open like lift lines at mt. charleston. Even Theodore can’t hit the open lanes, they have tightened up the lanes so much, it’s like traffic jam on friday night on the Strip (only without the stink of gangsta’s smoking their stank weed)

      night and day difference.

      • THE hockey GOD

        the kraken are obviously NOT a road team.

        The red wings are showing some spunk for first time, in a long time.

    • vlad

      agreed! too bad mcrimmon has a fixation with krebs who hasn’t done a thing other than bring down every line he plays on

    • Richard Santomauro

      This team needs to find a new identity. I am in agreement with Tim, bring Miromanov up and let’s roll the dice!

      Let’s stop being so DeBoering!

  3. Blitz

    One things for sure. Starting tonight it’s going to be an interesting ride for a while. Expecting carnage, but hoping for amazement. Future stars are made in moments like these. My expectations are like my golf game. I am never going to be a good golfer, but I pull off a great shot or even a great hole from time to time, and that keeps me going and entertained. Well, that and the alcohol.

    War Knights!!!

  4. Arnold Rothstein

    the odds line stink tonight

    PASS

    AR

  5. Vick Leach

    McCrimmon and McPhee now have an official excuse to prop themselves up as to why the team will not perform well this season. However, this team was already in trouble before the season even began. As you pointed out, only a select few players on this team actually score goals. Combined with a VERY, VERY inconsistent starting goalie, the prognosis is bleak. Anyone who pays attention saw this coming.

  6. Richard Santomauro

    Interesting. So the top line gets about 25% of the goals, 2nd line 28% of the goals, that leaves the bottom 2 lines getting 47% of the remaining goals. That’s the math, that is what you’re stats say.

    Seems to be fairly balanced to me.

    • Blitz

      I would imagine defense men make up more than the bottom 2 lines, a good portion of the 47%. Other than tuch I don’t think the bottom 6 pitched in alot. Collectively, Nosek, Roy, and the occasional ‘other’ put something in.

      Might point in all of this is that 47% is probably mostly dmen, not bottom 6.

      • Richard Santomauro

        Okay, that’s true. But how many in the bottom 6 on any team are producing? You likely see the bottom 6 of the top 5 to 10 teams getting a fair percentage, but overall it is likely the defense men that are doing most of the goal scoring in the NHL, not the bottom 6.

        For VGK to get back to the cup it needs a more productive 3rd line and I don’t think that we have seen any significant improvement there with the changes we made this year, at least not that I have see yet. Things are looking pretty bleak if both #61 and #67 are going to be out for an extended period of time. I just don’t see any combination available that will be able to produce close to the same offensive output.

        Oh, and the PP? It just got worse, much worse without #61 and #67.

        Does not look promising.

        I bet McC is missing Patrick Brown right about now.

  7. Richard Santomauro

    So, the bottom line here seems to be that Dadanov needs to play lights out and go on a massive scoring streak along with some of the other “newbies” playing above the bar.

    Got it.

    I had a bad feeling in my gut before the start of this season. Put Stone and Pacioretty out of action for any length of time and this season could get very very ugly a lot sooner than I expected.

    One thing, Lehner is going to have to get his GAA down to around 1 or 1.5.

    No, that’s silly and isn’t going to happen.

  8. HockeyFan

    Why do u people watch the Knights if u hate the team and FO so much?

    The Knights have been extremely successful for 4 years and all the comments on this site is how the team sucks. And for the last three years all I see for comments r complaints.

    You guys don’t deserve a team like the Knights. All the team has done is win and this site only cries and complains about the not getting a Cup. Hockey should be fun but the way this site complains about the team it will never be fun to watch the Knights. No team is perfect. Imagine if u where a Toronto fan.

    What a bunch of whining babies in the comment section. And all Ken does is cry about the Knights not being the best team in the league. Did Ken even play hockey, doesn’t seem like it by the way he talks on his podcast.

  9. THE hockey GOD

    “Mcrimmon says Krebs will save them”

    I can’t find this quote any where, this is how all the BS gets started by fan base making things up.

    • Richard Santomauro

      NHL roster for tonight’s game has Ronjberg instead of Krebs in.

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