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Hockey Reference Model Places Vegas Behind Two Pacific Rivals

(Photo Credit: @keeperofthecup on Twitter)

Hockey-Reference.com is the essential database for diehard hockey fans. It’s considered the good book to puckheads across the globe. Some elements that make HR stand out is the deep database of players, statistics, and their Playoff Probability Report. Currently, the Golden Knights are third in the NHL for the highest chance to qualify for the postseason.

Top 5 Hockey Reference’s Playoff Probability

  1. Vancouver Canucks: 99.1%
  2. Los Angeles Kings: 98.7%
  3. Vegas Golden Knights: 98.6%
  4. Boston Bruins: 97.8%
  5. New York Rangers: 97.7%

Interestingly enough the two teams with a higher playoff probability rate are in the Pacific Division. According to HR’s model Vancouver has the best chance of getting into the 2024 postseason, with LA coming in one spot behind.

The good folks at HockeyReference.com fully explain their model and how they come up with their computer predictions.

The playoff probability reports will be generated on a daily basis until the end of the regular season. The probabilties are empirical estimates based on simulating the remainder of the season 1000 times. [We’re] not going to give complete details at this time, the method has been tried and tested.

Several factors go into the elevated percentages of the Canucks and Kings. Vancouver is leading the entire NHL with 120 goals scored and a +41 goal differential. On top of that, the Pacific’s second place team has the league’s most regulation victories with 20. The Canucks stout offensive numbers are what is mostly impacting their high playoff probability. On the other hand, LA has allowed the least amount of goals this season. That equates well in computer models as well.

Top 5 Hockey Reference’s Cup Probability

  1. Los Angeles Kings: 10.9%
  2. Vancouver Canucks: 10.8%
  3. Vegas Golden Knights: 9.8%
  4. New York Rangers: 8.6%
  5. Toronto Maple Leafs: 6.8%

In HR’s simulated formula the Golden Knights are once again behind the Canucks and Kings for the highest chance to win the 2024 Stanley Cup. Clearly, the playoff probability report heavily respects the Pacific Division. But let’s be realistic, Vegas only trails the other two by a pinch of salt in an Olympic-sized swimming pool.

Other sites have postseason percentage models as well. MoneyPuck.com has Vegas leading the league with a 98% chance to make the playoffs. However, the MP compilation drops the Golden Knights to sixth with a 7.7% chance to repeat. Above them are in order; Avalanche, Hurricanes, Panthers, Kings, and Stars. In the end probabilities and simulations show one thing but in likelihood, the Golden Knights would be favored over all of those current contenders. Including Los Angeles and Vancouver.

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18 Comments

  1. Jake

    Vegas is built for the playoffs!

    NM

  2. ThG

    stats and probability analysis tell you where you have been , not where you are going. It’s like driving in car looking in your rear view mirror all the time, instead of looking at road in front of you .

    and polls showing the democratic party as morphing into hamas supporting party are not noise, those are facts; anyone on this forum who says posting polls that burst their democratic party positions have been exposed. Time to change parties , who wants to be affiliated with neo hazi’s and haters ?

  3. George T

    This the same group that never favored VGK during our successful Stanley Cup Campaign?

    Stats are great for junkies and people with time on their hands.

    • Emmanuel

      They’re VERY useful in Baseball, more situational stats & longer season. In the other sports not so much.

  4. ThG

    and it’s time for another one

  5. ThG

    and for you non English speaking viewing pleasure, his best selling hit song.

  6. JB

    I’ve got no problem with these various models, projections, whatever. I say go ahead and rate us as low as you want. All that does is add fuel to our fire!

  7. knights fan in minny

    logan considered day to day looks like petra will be the starter

  8. JV

    This was my “Call me crazy” prediction from Setember 5th:

    Gotta call you crazy on Hill because he’s never played a full season and is a injury liability.
    Call me crazy, but McCrimmon has to trade for a back-up for starting goalie Patera by December.

  9. Pistol Pete

    Kraken beat the Kings in regulation 2-1.

  10. Tim

    The team everyone loves to hate you all know the answer. From our success from our inception to today two cup appearances, second most wins in the last 6 year period, even the pundits admit we have the biggest best defense core, our offense may not be the best but it would be fair to say were one of the best. Jealousy among all the other hockey losers just stokes my fire. Another thing that pisses them off is we know how to put on a show and rated #1 hockey arena for an experience and of coarse a packed house every night. After all this do any of us give a shit where they position us when the money’s on the line then we’ll see where the bear shit in the woods. Don’t ever bet against Vegas!!!

  11. ThG

    As noted previously “LT has shown less mobility and let in many shots beating him high (glove side and stick side” – paraphasing. The opposition teams quickly pounced on this flaw. Video is out there instantaneously. Yesterday, Wednesday VGK put LT on IR with “upper body injury”. This could be the cause of his inability to either “see” goals in high area or some other pain issue in upper body limiting his ability to move to get to those pucks. Last year he was clearly faster and smoother. This year not so much. Watching and noting, observing have potential pluses. Well knowing what to look for is key.

  12. arnold rothstein

    how timely an article, as VGK face the beasts in east with revenge on their minds. The Southeast teams have some of the best in league, interesting how these writers come up with this stuff at the wrong time

    Arnold ‘the brain’,

  13. ThG

    per prior posts regarding Jesus being an alien, and last year we delved into who the Three Magi were. Here is another historical review of ancient texts delving who the three magi that visited Bethlehem nearly 2000 years ago .

    PS it’s four days to do, and genocide Joe is still the worst occupier of WH in last fifty years. The world is on fire , stolen elections have consequences

  14. JB

    We need some points, any points from the rest of this trip. Vancouver is right there ready to take first, and although LA lost, they stil have games in hand. With two AHL goalies going for us, the rest of the boys need to play their asses off. Let’s see if they do? Facing the Big Cat tonight……..oh brother!

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