Historical Data Looks Kindly Upon Golden Knights’ Postseason Run, Not As Nicely Upon Regular Season

It may not feel this way after the sweep of the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche and a 12-4 record in the postseason, but the Golden Knights’ resume is a rare one for a Stanley Cup Finalist.

Vegas finished the season with a record of 39-26-17 for 95 points. It’s the fewest number of points a team in the Final has registered in the regular season since the Cup-champion 2011-12 Los Angeles Kings. The 39 wins are the fewest of any Cup Finalist since the 2002 Carolina Hurricanes, who fell to Detroit.

(*Shortened seasons adjusted to 82 games.*)

Meanwhile, the Canes enter the Final as record-breakers in a positive light. After finishing off the Canadiens in five games in the Eastern Conference Final, Carolina became the first team in the four seven-game series era (since 1987) to reach the final with just one loss. Their 12-1 record beat out eight different teams that reached the Cup Final.

So, it all sounds pretty daunting for the Golden Knights, however, historical data doesn’t exactly indicate that VGK are dead in the water heading into the Final.

Of the eight teams that entered the Final with a 12-2 record, just four went on to hoist the Stanley Cup. The 2003 Ducks and 1992 Blackhawks both lost to 12-5 teams (2003 NJD & 1992 PIT) and the 2008 Penguins and 1995 Red Wings lost to 12-4 Los Angeles and Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, each of the four Cup-winners beat teams that were 12-5 or worse, including the 1987 Oilers that beat a 12-7 Flyers team.

To put that a different way, the two times a team has entered the Cup Final with a 12-2 record against an opponent coming in at 12-4, which VGK are, the “underdog” went on to win. And, the 1995 Devils swept Detroit in the Stanley Cup Final.

In the 38 seasons that the league has used four seven-game series, the team with the better playoff record entering the final has won just 12 Stanley Cups. The team with the worse record has won 21.

Thus, VGK’s 12-4 record against the sterling 12-1 of Carolina actually works in Vegas’ favor, not against them, historically.

When looking strictly at wins in the regular season, it’s not as promising for the Golden Knights.

Since 2000, when the league removed ties, the Stanley Cup Finalist with more regular season wins went on to win 17 of the 25 Stanley Cups. The team with fewer wins has won just seven. Plus, the largest gap a team has overcome is eight, both in 2011 and 2012 when the Bruins beat the Canucks and the Kings beat the Devils.

For VGK, they are staring at a massive 14-win difference, the largest in the NHL since 2002. (Technically, Montreal’s 82 game adjusted total was 18 fewer than Tampa Bay in 2021, and the Lightning won 4-1.) When the difference has been greater than eight, the team with more victories in the regular season is a perfect 5-0 (six if you count 2021 TBL).

The 2023 Golden Knights are a good example of this, as they won 51 regular season games while their opponent, Florida, had only won 42. VGK won in 5.

Carolina is an excellent team that has steamrolled through the Eastern Conference. They’ve won four straight games in all three series and have made history by reaching the final at 12-1. However, this year’s Golden Knights team is no stranger to breaking barriers.

They’ll have to do it one more time to finish off a storybook run no one could have seen coming a few months ago. Doubt at your own peril, though… ask Colorado how that went.

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Records when entering Stanley Cup Final (Winner vs Loser)
2025 – Panthers 12-5 vs Oilers 12-4
2024 – Panthers 12-5 vs Oilers 12-6
2023 – Golden Knights 12-5 vs Panthers 12-4
2022 – Avalanche 12-2 vs Lightning 12-5
2021 – Lightning 12-6 vs Canadiens 12-5
2020 – Lightning 12-4 vs Stars 12-6
2019 – Blues 12-7 vs Bruins 12-5
2018 – Capitals 12-7 vs Golden Knights 12-3
2017 – Penguins 12-7 vs Predators 12-4
2016 – Penguins 12-6 vs Sharks 12-6
2015 – Blackhawks 12-5 vs Lightning 12-8
2014 – Kings 12-9 vs Rangers 12-8
2013 – Blackhawks 12-5 vs Bruins 12-4
2012 – Kings 12-2 vs Devils 12-6
2011 – Bruins 12-6 vs Canucks 12-6
2010 – Blackhawks 12-4 vs Flyers 12-5
2009 – Penguins 12-5 vs Red Wings 12-4
2008 – Red Wings 12-4 vs Penguins 12-2
2007 – Ducks 12-4 vs Senators 12-3
2006 – Hurricanes 12-6 vs Oilers 12-5
2005 – Lockout
2004 – Lightning 12-4 vs Flames 12-7
2003 – Devils 12-5 vs Ducks 12-2
2002 – Red Wings 12-6 vs Hurricanes 12-6
2001 – Avalanche 12-4 vs Devils 12-6
2000 – Devils 12-5 vs Stars 12-5
1999 – Stars 12-5 vs Sabres 12-3
1998 – Red Wings 12-6 vs Capitals 12-5
1997 – Red Wings 12-5 vs Flyers 12-3
1996 – Avalanche 12-6 vs Panthers 12-6
1995 – Devils 12-4 vs Red Wings 12-2
1994 – Rangers 12-4 vs Canucks 12-5
1993 – Canadiens 12-3 vs Kings 12-7
1992 – Penguins 12-5 vs Blackhawks 12-2
1991 – Penguins 12-6 vs North Stars 12-5
1990 – Oilers 12-5 vs Bruins 12-4
1989 – Flames 12-4 vs Canadiens 12-3
1988 – Oilers 12-2 vs Bruins 12-6
1987 – Oilers 12-2 vs Flyers 12-7

Number of Regular Season Wins (Winner vs Loser)
2025 – Florida 47 vs Edmonton 48
2024 – Florida 52 vs Edmonton 49
2023 – Vegas 51 vs Florida 42
2022 – Colorado 56 vs Tampa Bay 51
2021 – Tampa Bay 36 (53) vs Montreal 24 (35)
2020 – Tampa Bay 43 (50) vs Dallas 37 (44)
2019 – St. Louis 45 vs Boston 49
2018 – Washington 49 vs Vegas 51
2017 – Pittsburgh 50 vs Nashville 41
2016 – Pittsburgh 48 vs San Jose 46
2015 – Chicago 48 vs Tampa Bay 50
2014 – Los Angeles 46 vs New York 45
2013 – Chicago 36 (53) vs Boston 28 (48)
2012 – Los Angeles 40 vs New Jersey 48
2011 – Boston 46 vs Vancouver 54
2010 – Chicago 52 vs Philadelphia 41
2009 – Pittsburgh 45 vs Detroit 51
2008 – Detroit 54 vs Pittsburgh 47
2007 – Anaheim 48 vs Ottawa 48
2006 – Carolina 52 vs Edmonton 41
2005 – Lockout
2004 – Tampa Bay 46 vs Calgary 42
2003 – New Jersey 46 vs Anaheim 40
2002 – Detroit 51 vs Carolina 35
2001 – Colorado 52 vs New Jersey 48
2000 – New Jersey 45 vs Dallas 43