Guest Post: What If Vegas Made The Best Possible Pick In Every Draft, How Different Would It Look

Today we have a guest post from one of the biggest Golden Knights fans in Vegas, and the best poker player in the fanbase (though the one time we played in the same tournament I outlasted him. It was a tournament for charity and I bought back in 6 times, but no one needs to know that). 

Daniel Negreanu shares his thoughts on what could have been in the NHL Draft over Vegas’ first five seasons. With the benefit of hindsight, Daniel looks at VGK’s pick and compares it against the perfect pick in that spot to reveal not only what VGK left on the table, but how ridiculously good Dallas has been at drafting. 

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Let me start by saying this is in no way a condemnation of the front office, the NHL entry draft is always a bit of a crapshoot and you will always see guys drafted in the second and third rounds who come out of nowhere and become NHL stars.

Having said that, it’s always a fun exercise to see what could have been if you made up a team of the absolute best available players when it was their turn to pick. Goalies are notoriously unpredictable, so you rarely see goalies drafted high so hindight plays an unfair role on some of those picks. We also aren’t accounting for need, as teams will often choose a player to fill a specific hole rather than load up on a position where they feel like the cupboard is full, not that VGK has ever had this problem in their short existence.

2017

VGK: #6 Cody Glass
Perfect Pick: #8 Casey Middelstadt

Cody Glass looks to get something working in Pittsburgh likely in a 3rd line role, while Middlestadt has posted back to back seasons with almost 60 points and is in a good situation in Colorado

VGK: #13 Nick Suzuki
Perfect Pick: #20 Robert Thomas

This isn’t a miss, Suzuki is a big part of the Habs rebuild and he hasn’t missed a game in three seasons upping his point total each year from 61, 66, and 77 last year. Robert Thomas has been just a little bit better offensively, posting 86 points last season, up from a previous career high of 77

VGK: #15 Erik Brannstrom
Perfect Pick: #26 Jake Oettinger

Brannstrom, just 24, isn’t a write off just yet, as a smaller sized player his breakout year, typically the 400 game threshold, is a couple seasons away, but so far, he hasn’t been able to play a meaningful role. He moves to Colorado now, and would need to see some injuries for him to get the kind of minutes he needs to turn things around. As for Oettinger, it’s rare for a young goalie to perform in the NHL, but he has been a stud since his rookie season posting a career 2.50 GAA and .913 SV%

VGK: #34 Nick Hague
Perfect Pick: #39 Jason Robertson

If not for Jason Robertson still being available, Hague would likely have been the best pick at #34. Another exceptionally sized player, still over 100 games away from his 400 game breakout season. The points haven’t really been there, but he has solidified the third pair giving VGK solid depth on the back end.

VGK: #62 Jake Leschyshyn
Perfect Pick: #63 Fabian Zetterlund

Zetterlund put up 24 goals and 44 points on a very bad Sharks team last year. His -34 isn’t something that should hold much weight considering how bad the team was, and he likely has upside that Leschyshyn doesn’t. If he finds a way to stick in the NHL it’s likely to be in a 4th line role. At age 25, he only got into one game with the Rangers last season.

Honorable mentions from this draft, a couple 4th round gems:

#111 Jeremy Swayman
#121 Drake Batherson

2018

This was an absolutely terrible draft. Sure there were studs at the top with Dahlin, Svechnikov, B Tkachuck, Q. Hughes, and Bouchard but in that top 10 you also had Kotkaniemi, Zadina, A. Boqvist, and Kravtsov. It wasn’t just the first round that made this a week draft, past there the number of bona fide NHLers is scarce.

VGK: #61 Ivan Morozov
Perfect Pick: #61 Ivan Morozov

You could maybe make an argument for Jordan Harris or a couple goalies with upside, but based on the season Morozov just posted in the KHL, I think I still like this gamble best. Point per game players aren’t common in the KHL, and Morozov at 24 posted 38 points in 37 games last year

VGK: #115 Paul Cotter
Perfect Pick: #120 Philip Kurashev

I think the jury is still out on this one depending how you are judging what these players bring to the table. Cotter has been a versatile energy guy who hasn’t put up many points, but brings intangibles to the game that maybe Kurashev doesn’t. Kurashev did find himself on Connor Bedard’s wing last season and he capitalized with 54 points in 75 games

2019

VGK: #17 Peyton Krebs
Perfect Pick: #18 Thomas Harley

Much like Cody Glass, another highly touted VGK prospect found his way out of town and has struggled to create a meaningful role for himself in Buffalo. This is Krebs breakout season, and if he doesn’t find himself on a scoring line, he is destined to be a bottom 6 player at the NHL level. Thomas Harley on the other hand, is an absolute beast of a player. At just 23 years old he scored 15 goals and 47 points last season despite playing second fiddle mostly to Miro Heiskanen in Dallas. If you haven’t noticed, when it comes to drafting the last few years It appears the Dallas Stars are playing chess, while everyone else is playing checkers. Just a barrage of later round picks with high end potential.

VGK: #41 Kaeden Korczak
Perfect Pick: #41 Kaedan Korczak

Korczak projects to be a defense first type rock on the blue line, and if you look past him In the second and third round I can’t see how you find a better option right now. You’d have to look all the way down to #68 Zac Jones to even make a reasonable argument.

VGK: #79 Pavel Dorofyev
Perfect Pick: #98 Matias Maccelli

I don’t think Dorofyev is a miss, and he may end up posting better numbers than Maccelli now that he will likely play a bigger role with the team since the departure of Marchessault, Stephenson, and Carrier. Maccelli has already arrived, but there is upside here with Dorofyev.

2020

VGK: #29 Brendan Brisson
Perfect Pick: #45 Brock Faber

This isn’t a knock on Brisson, more a tip of the cap to the LA Kings for finding Brock Faber at #45. I don’t think anyone saw a 47 point season from this rookie. Brisson got a taste of NHL action last season posting 8 points in 15 games, and with the departures, he also may get a shot to play meaningful minutes in the NHL this season.

VGK: #68 Lukas Cormier
Perfect Pick: #69 Alexander Nikishin

Much like Brisson, this has less to do with Cormier and more to do with Carolina striking gold with the 69th pick. 6′ 3″ 216 pounds of KHL domination, Nikishin is a highly touted prospect who lit the KHL up for 56 points in 67 games, 17 of those being goals scored with the booming shot he possesses.

2021

VGK: #30 Zack Dean
Perfect Pick: #47 Logan Stankoven

Zack Dean was a bit of a surprise at #30, a “safe” low upside pick that is looking like exactly what you figured he would be. Meanwhile, Dallas did it again picking “The Stank” at 47. The only reason he fell this far is him being listed at 5′ 8″, but this looks like a steal. He lit up the AHL for 57 points in 47 games, and then when he got the call up he played a significant role in the Stars playoff run, looking very much like he belonged in the NHL.

The “What if” team boasts four players from the Dallas Stars:

Jake Oettinger
Jason Robertson
Logan Stankonen
Thomas Harley

Here is a look at a fantasy land youth insertion that was available when the Knights has their selection and passed, along with the two players where I think they really did hit the bullseye:

Jason Robertson-Robert Thomas-Drake Batherson
Philip Kurashev-Casey Middlestadt-Logan Stankoven
Mattias Maccelli-Ivan Morozov-Fabian Zetterlund

Thomas Harley-Brock Faber
Alexander Nikishin-Kaeden Korczak

Jake Oettinger
Jeremy Swayman