(Photo Credit: @vegasgoldenknights on Instagram)
Analytically, the Golden Knights are one of the best teams in the NHL. They have allowed the fewest high-danger chances of any team in the league, which has translated to the fewest expected goals against. Their overall expected goal share is 54.4%, which is 4th best, and they are top 10 in Corsi (8th), Fenwick (6th), and scoring chance share (6th).
The eye test seems to be telling a slightly different story, though. Despite sitting atop the Pacific Division alone with a stellar .661 points percentage, the overall record of 16 wins and 15 losses has many feeling like the season has been going just okay, rather than excellent, as the numbers suggest.
There may be a simple explanation for this phenomenon. It’s all about the scoreboard.
All of the stats above are calculated for all situations in all games for every minute the Golden Knights have been on the ice. When they’re broken down, it makes a bit more sense.
The Golden Knights have scored 95 goals this season while allowing 87. This is slightly different than the goal differential number in the standings because that awards a goal for a shootout win or loss, which Vegas are 1-3 in. A +8 mark is pretty good, but nowhere near competing with Colorado (+58), Washington (+27), Tampa Bay (+22), or Dallas (+21). The big reason for this is conversion.
The advanced numbers have the Golden Knights expected to have scored 99.6 while allowing just 83.5. That’s a +16, which is much more in line with the league’s elites.
This is where the scoreboard comes in.
When the game is tied, as is the case to begin every game, VGK simply aren’t finishing anywhere near the expected rate. They’re expected to have scored 35 goals but have actually only scored 28. On the flip side, they’ve been expected to give up 29 but have actually given up 37.
So, when tied, the expected goal differential is +6 while the actual is -9. That’s a massive difference, and it’s why the Golden Knights have been behind so often.
Once they’re behind, though, the numbers flip. When trailing, VGK are expected to have a +5 goal differential, but they’ve actually outscored opponents 38-23 for a +15.
When tied, Vegas’ shooting percentage is a paltry 7.8%, literally the worst mark in the league. Once they’re behind, that number bumps up to 11.8%, the league’s 7th best mark, which means a goal on every 8.5 shots rather than every 12.8 shots. And to make matters even better, unsurprisingly, the Golden Knights shoot much more when they are behind compared to when the score is tied.
They average 58 shot attempts and 26 shots on goal when it’s tied, compared to 65 shot attempts and 31 shots on goal when behind. (Normalized per 60 stats)
This is why, as a fan, it feels like they aren’t playing as well as they actually are. Even though they’ve played better according to advanced stats when the game is tied, more often than not, the actual goals result in deficits, which they then erase, and the process starts over.
It’s possible this all evens itself out as the season goes on, which would mean more leads and fewer comebacks, but there’s also a chance VGK’s pass-first style is causing this. When the scoreboard says they don’t need a goal, they look for the perfect opportunity, while when they have to get one to get back in the game, they’re more willing to shoot.
Either way, maybe it’ll stop messing with our heads now that we have a little more context.
Larry
I appreciate what must be the extensive time and research it took to put this article together, and respect and thank you for it, however statistics are 1 thing, but my eye test is another, and I stand by VGK has not really played well this year, and essentially are fortunate to be where they are at this point. There is potential moving forward, but that will greatly depend on pieces being moved and other pieces being brought in, I for one remain hopeful in what may transpire.
23
Eichel, Marner, Stone, Theodore, Barbashev, Korczak, Hutton, and Lauzon are a combined PLUS +45
all the remaining players on the team are a combined MINUS -54
the top guys and the 3rd d pair and the PP have done a good job.
the role players are lagging, and the 4th line and the 2-15 d pair have been subpar.
the PP and the loser pts have propped up the Vgk so far, but the 5 on 5 production of lines 2, 3, and 4 and d pair #2 have to get way better or face playoff problems
VGK fan
Actually 23, you and Larry were kind of on the same page concerning the bottom 6, he listed all the players that have played there, and you provided the numbers to back up what he was saying, and those numbers arent pretty!!
Emmanuel
The Xmas break will be telling, games against the Oil, Sharkies (kinda a test theyre speedy), Avs & Quinnesota. If they win 2 of 3 against the big three its a good sign.
I think Sabres got a new GM…..VGK FO should look if they can swing a deal with those suckers……
Pistol Pete
Apparently as far as Ken is concerned an OTL is a loss. That is not true. An overtime loss is not a loss it’s a well-earned one point vs. zero points. How many times do we have to repeat it?
“the overall record of 16 wins and 15 losses”
Mrdirtlawyer
I’m encouraged by the fact that VGK has only lost in regulation 6 times out of 31 contests to date, the second fewest regulation losses behind Colorado and the fewest such losses in team history at a comparable point in the season. Overtime in the post-season often comes down to special teams play and goaltending coming up with game saving stops – which appear to be strengths particularly if Hart continues to improve. I wouldn’t get too hung up on these OTL “ loser points.”
NAM
An OTL is a participation trophy. In the playoffs, where real men play, a loss in over-time is a loss. There is no pretend, or “good job Jimmy, you tried hard”.
JB
Why do you compare reg season OTs with playoff OTs? Two completely different animals. You did not lose the game if it went into OT. Those that only look at ways to be negative, would be bitcing about the one point thing. Those points could be the difference in getting to the playoffs or not! Geez!
Pistol Pete
Look at the standings it’s W/L/OTL. VGK is second only to COL with the fewest L’s just six. Even DAL has one more. Our P% is fourth highest because of the OTL’s. With more puck luck at least three of the OTL’s are W’s. Ask the coach and players if in their minds OTL’s are losses. Think we know what they would say.