Once again under Bruce Cassidy, the Golden Knights are up and running quickly early in the season. For the fourth consecutive year, the Cassidy-led VGK have registered at least six points in the first four games.
This year, though, it’s been a bit of a rockier road than in years past. The Golden Knights have allowed the first goal in all four games and have fallen behind eight times in four games. Vegas has successfully clawed back to even the score in all four games, which has led to some wild swings in win probabilities.
Pregame Win Probability (per MoneyPuck)
Vs LAK = 66%
At SJS = 68%
At SEA = 65%
At CGY = 64%
Lowest Win Probability During Game (Per MoneyPuck)
Vs LAK = 11%
At SJS = 5%
At SEA = 24%
At CGY = 15%
Vegas managed to win the two games in San Jose and Calgary and, despite facing massive uphill challenges, pulled a point out of each of the other two.
The Golden Knights have come back from down two goals twice in four games, have erased six deficits of at least a goal, and have been trailing at some point in the 3rd period in three of the four.
This isn’t new for the Golden Knights, though. Last year, they posted a league high .579 winning percentage when allowing the first goal. They were one of just three teams to win more games than they lost when conceding first, and outpaced the rest of the league by a wide margin with Dallas in second at .528.
They’re also tied for the league lead through four games with two wins after trailing, something they did an incredible 24 times in 2024-25. Only the Washington Capitals had more with 25.
Eventually, it would be beneficial for the Golden Knights to take leads and hold them, but if any team is comfortable playing from behind, it’s this one.
hdbiker7851
Even the Calgary announcers stated that it doesn’t seem to bother Vegas being behind – while that may be true – that type of situation will catch up to you and suggests that you are not prepared to play when you first hit the ice. Whether true or not having to dig out of a hole often is not the best situation.
Pistol Pete
Sorry don’t think it’s as simple as “not being prepared to play when you hit the ice”. Really? All the practices, video sessions, locker room chats and you don’t begin the game not being prepared to win? I don’t know the answer. It is somehow more nuanced than it appears. What team does not want to get off to a fast start against us? VGK has been a good team their whole history, teams start hard to beat us? Who knows? I do agree whatever causes it slow starts are not the greatest the fewer of them the better. Also I would like to know last year of the 82 games how many did we actually allow the first goal? If a team is good it is probably the norm for it to score the first goal more often than not. I’ll look into it.
Pistol Pete
40 of 82 last year if this is accurate.
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In the 2024-25 season, the Vegas Golden Knights scored the first goal in 40 games.
The Golden Knights finished the regular season with a record of 50-22-10 (110 points) and won the Pacific Division. They had a .579 winning percentage when allowing the first goal, which was the highest in the league. They also had 24 wins after trailing at some point in the game, which was the second most in the league.
Pistol Pete
You DON’T begin the game not being prepared to win?
Omit “don’t”. Double negative by accident.
Vic
Agree HD. It’s been happening for quite a while, and lowers the odds of winning deep into the playoffs. Scoring more than other teams in the 3rd period is nice, but falling behind by a goal or two in the first is not the way play the odds and survive. For whatever reason, our eyes are not deceiving us, the VGK come our slower than than most opponents. Other coaches go for a big early fast push, and sometimes it works. Another difficult thing to overcome is when the VGK outplay the other team, and then the first decent chance against winds up in the net. It deflates the team, and is not easy to come back from.
Pistol Pete
Going back to my point of keeping Stone on the Karlsson line for depth it is possible a Saad-Karlsson-Smith line will score. Karlsson and Smith have identical stats .60 pts/game—20 goals/82 games. Especially in Karlsson’s case career averages belie this potential for above average seasons, for example 2023-24 he went 30G/30A in 70 games way above his average and of course there was his huge 2017-18 season years before. Saad goes .57 pts/game—23 goals /82 games. He’s a direct south to north go to the net with seven 20+ goal seasons including a 30+. Not the player he was but still fast and heavy bigger than Karlsson and Smith and has a nose for the net. This line might work.
To put Marner with Eichel you could:
Dorofeyev-Eichel-Marner
Meanwhile if Marner increases the scoring of the Hertl line which he will (already has) that has value.
Pistol Pete
I meant:
Dorofeyev-Hertl/Stone
Larry
Stone and Hertl simply CANNOT be on the same line together, too methodical and too plodding, though I wonder if my eyes are deceiving me because Stone actually looks a bit quicker and faster this year, is that even remotely possible??
NAM
Interesting you ask if Stone is faster this year. I thought the very same thing and his speed isn’t something I think about very much, because I accepted long ago that his talents are everything else, but I for some reason thought the same thing. Maybe so.
You are correct that Stone should not play with Hertl/Doro 5×5.
Larry
Thanks NAM, glad to know I wasn’t hallucinating!!
SMH
Hasn’t Stone fed Dorofeyev with several laser-like passes for power play goals so far this season? Is there some chemistry there that could potentially be duplicated at 5×5? Therefore, could/should we try playing Stone & Dorofeyev together as the 2 wingers on the same line?
Larry
The sooner it is realized and accepted that Saad should not have been re-signed and is a non-factor and entity the better off VGK will be in my opinion.
Pistol Pete
I can’t say McCrimmon was wrong to sign Saad he knows better than me.
Pistol Pete
Is there something horribly amiss with 6G/8A (+6) in 29 games? Those are above average depth forward numbers ask Cassidy and McCrimmon and they’ll tell you he was a good fit on that line he was a good fit. Him and Smith $2m made sense at least on paper otherwise McCrimmon would not do it.
Larry
Firstly, almost anyone would have amassed those relatively minimum stat lines playing with 2 guys that had over 30 goals each last year.
Secondly, he simply does not stand out in whatever role is expected of him, and now he is a year older, just not a good combination or fit.
Vic
He doesn’t pass the eye test. Zero hits, almost invisible, and is no longer a finisher. He’s taking up space, but we know the next in line in Henderson don’t offer much yet. Let’s hope he can offer something soon.
Larry
I sure hope they know better than all of us!
Pistol Pete
Not everything works all the time but they always know better than us.