(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)
After publishing a comparison between the St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild with regard to which team would be a better matchup for the Golden Knights, just about every comment on social media referenced the Blues’ torrid recent pace.
Logically, it makes sense that if a team ends the season on a tear, they’ll likely have more success in the playoffs than teams that come in struggling. But, this is hockey, and things that make sense aren’t always the case, so I figured it’s worthwhile to look into it to see if it’s genuinely impactful or more of an urban myth.
To start, we’ll look at the team everyone reading this site cares about most, the Vegas Golden Knights. VGK have participated in six postseasons with results including two first round losses, two conference final losses, a Cup final loss, and a Stanley Cup championship. So, despite their short history, they have a wide range of outcomes to draw from.
*Due to the COVID stoppage in 2020, that season is disregarded for this article.*
2024 – First Round
Last 30: 14-14-2
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 3-2-0
2023 – Cup Champs
Last 30: 21-4-5
Last 10: 7-1-3
Last 5: 3-0-2
2021 – Conference Final
Last 30: 21-8-1
Last 10: 7-3-0
Last 5: 4-1-0
2019 – First Round
Last 30: 14-13-3
Last 10: 3-5-2
Last 5: 1-3-1
2018 – Cup Final
Last 30: 16-11-3
Last 10: 5-3-2
Last 5: 3-2-0
For the Golden Knights, the last 30 games have been fairly significant. In 2023 when they won the Stanley Cup, they had their best final 30 games in franchise history and it propelled them to a good start in the playoffs. The last 10 and last 5 are more of a mixed bag with the exception of 2019 when Vegas limped in and then were wrongly eliminated by a terrible penalty.
That’s far too small of a sample size to make any conclusions though. So, next, I pulled up the final 5, 10, and 30 for recent Cup winners and runners-up.
*Click here to see the complete breakdown.*
To win the Cup, the last 30 games seem to be of great importance. All six had at least 17 wins and four of the six had at least 19. The last 10 games appear to make a difference as well. Just one of the last six Cup champs have been under .500 and four of the six came in with at least six wins in their final 10. The final five just about runs the gamut with recent champions winning and losing as many as four.
As for runners-up, there hasn’t been as much significance to any of the groupings. Montreal’s magical run in the wacky 56-game COVID shortened season throws it off a bit but even 2018 Vegas, 2022 Tampa Bay, and last year’s Edmonton all finished the season with just 16 wins in their last 30. Last 10 was a mixed bag and again, the last five didn’t seem to matter at all as there are records ranging from 4-1-0 to 0-3-2.
Then, I took a look at the first round only for the last three seasons.
*Click here to see the complete breakdown.*
First Round Winners (Approximate Record)
Final 30: .671 points percentage (19-8-3)
Final 10: .675 points percentage (6-2-2)
Final 5: .679 points percentage (3-1-1)
First Round Losers (Approximate Record)
Final 30: .649 points percentage (18-9-3)
Final 10: .623 points percentage (5-3-2)
Final 5: .642 points percentage (3-2-0)
As you can see, there’s really not much of a difference. Sure, the teams that win the first round are a bit better in each category, but the losers are all quite strong as well. For the Golden Knights, they are currently 14-6-2 with eight to play in the final 30 games. That’s a .682 points percentage.
Here’s where the results start to show some magnitude.
First Round Record Based On # Of Wins In Last 30 Games
26 wins: 0-1
23 wins: 1-1
22 wins: 2-0
21 wins: 2-1
20 wins: 2-2
19 wins: 3-3
18 wins: 7-4
17 wins: 3-5
16 wins: 2-3
15 wins: 1-2
14 wins: 0-2
12 wins: 0-1
Being hot does not seem to hold as much weight as being cold in the final 30. Teams with 17 or fewer wins in the last 30 are just 6-13 in the first round. Teams with at least 20 are 7-5. The Golden Knights already have 14 wins with eight games still to go, so they should reach at least 18. St. Louis already has 18 in the final 30 and still have six chances to add on while the Wild have only 10 wins with six to go, guaranteeing they’ll fall below 17.
First Round Record Based On # Of Wins In Last 10 Games
9 wins: 1-1
8 wins: 3-4
7 wins: 9-1
6 wins: 6-5
5 wins: 2-8
4 wins: 3-5
There’s a bit of separation for teams that hit seven wins compared to those that fail to reach five. Seven or more in the final 10 has translated to 13-6 in the first round while five or fewer means 5-13. The Golden Knights are currently 1-1 so that can go any which way while the Blues are 4-0 and Minnesota is 1-3 each with six games left.
First Round Record Based On # Of Wins In Last 5 Games
5 wins: 3-2
4 wins: 7-6
3 wins: 7-8
2 wins: 5-4
1 win: 2-4
Finally, the final five don’t seem to have much impact unless a team completely stumbles in, and even then, 2-4 is not a ton to go on.
One final aspect to look at are big streaks, like the Blues are currently on having won 10 straight. In the last three years, five teams have finished the season on at least a six-game win streak. Three of them won their first round series, 2023 Edmonton on 9 game streak, 2023 Dallas on 6 game streak, and 2022 Carolina on 6 game streak, while two lost, 2024 Winnipeg who entered on an 8 game streak and bowed out in five to Colorado and the historic 2023 Boston who lost in seven to Florida.
The only similar example to what the Blues are doing right now is the 2022 Florida Panthers. They won 13 games in a row right near the end of the season. The streak was broken with three games to go and they finished 1-2-0. They won the division by seven points, meaning they had clinched the Eastern Conference #1 seed with three games to go. They defeated the #8 seed, 100-point Washington Capitals in six games in the first round.
Summing it all up, winning is always good. Unless you are the aforementioned 2023 Bruins, typically winning translates to more winning in the playoffs, but it’s nowhere near statistically significant, and nearly as many “hot” teams falter in the first round as prosper. On the other side, limping into the playoffs can be a problem. It was an issue for the 2019 and 2024 Golden Knights and it’s been a massive problem for teams that struggle for the final two months.
Even then though, end-of-season results are not a great indicator of what will happen in the playoffs. As we all know, the Presidents Trophy winner hasn’t lifted the Cup since 2013, so every single year for more than a decade has seen the league’s best team fall. For the Golden Knights, it probably is beneficial to catch the Wild rather than the Blues, Oilers, or Kings, but no matter who they face in the first round, the result won’t be impacted between now and the 20th.
Cup Champions
2024 – Florida
Last 30: 19-9-2
Last 10: 6-3-1
Last 5: 4-0-1
2023 – Vegas
Last 30: 21-4-5
Last 10: 7-1-3
Last 5: 3-0-2
2022 – Colorado
Last 30: 18-9-3
Last 10: 4-5-1
Last 5: 1-3-1
2021 – Tampa Bay
Last 30: 17-12-1
Last 10: 6-3-1
Last 5: 2-3-0
2019 – St Louis
Last 30: 20-6-4
Last 10: 8-1-1
Last 4: 4-0-1
2018 – Washington
Last 30: 19-9-2
Last 10: 8-2-0
Last 5: 3-2-0
Runners Up
2024 – Edmonton
Last 30: 16-9-5
Last 10: 4-4-2
Last 5: 1-3-1
2023 – Florida
Last 30: 18-10-2
Last 10: 6-3-1
Last 5: 3-1-1
2022 – Tampa Bay
Last 30: 16-12-2
Last 10: 7-3-0
Last 5: 4-1-0
2021 – Montreal
Last 30: 12-14-4
Last 10: 4-4-2
Last 5: 0-3-2
2019 – Boston
Last 30: 21-7-2
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 2-3-0
2018 – Vegas
Last 30: 16-11-3
Last 10: 5-3-2
Last 5: 3-2-0
First Round Winners
2024 Boston
Last 30: 15-9-6
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 2-3-0
2024 Carolina
Last 30: 22-6-2
Last 10: 7-3-0
Last 5: 4-1-0
2024 New York Rangers
Last 30: 22-7-1
Last 10: 7-3-0
Last 5: 3-2-0
2024 Florida
Last 30: 19-9-2
Last 10: 6-3-1
Last 5: 4-0-1
2024 Edmonton
Last 30: 16-9-5
Last 10: 4-4-2
Last 5: 1-3-1
2024 Dallas
Last 30: 20-7-3
Last 10: 8-2-0
Last 5: 4-1-0
2024 Vancouver
Last 30: 16-11-3
Last 10: 5-4-1
Last 5: 3-1-1
2024 Colorado
Last 30: 18-9-3
Last 10: 4-4-2
Last 5: 2-2-1
2023 Edmonton *Came in on 9 game winning streak*
Last 30: 21-5-4
Last 10: 9-0-1
Last 5: 5-0-0
2023 Vegas
Last 30: 21-4-5
Last 10: 7-1-3
Last 5: 3-0-2
2023 Dallas *Came in on 6 game winning streak*
Last 30: 18-8-4
Last 10: 8-2-0
Last 5: 5-0-0
2023 Seattle
Last 30: 17-10-3
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 3-2-0
2023 New Jersey
Last 30: 18-9-3
Last 10: 7-3-0
Last 5: 4-1-0
2023 Carolina
Last 30: 18-11-1
Last 10: 5-5-0
Last 5: 2-3-0
2023 Toronto
Last 30: 19-8-3
Last 10: 7-1-2
Last 5: 4-0-1
2023 Florida
Last 30: 18-10-2
Last 10: 6-3-1
Last 5: 3-1-1
2022 Calgary
Last 30: 18-7-5
Last 10: 6-2-2
Last 5: 3-1-1
2022 Colorado
Last 30: 18-9-3
Last 10: 4-5-1
Last 5: 1-3-1
2022 Edmonton
Last 30: 20-7-3
Last 10: 7-2-1
Last 5: 4-1-0
2022 St. Louis
Last 30: 17-8-5
Last 10: 7-2-1
Last 5: 3-2-0
2022 Florida *13 Game win streak in before 1-3-0 finish*
Last 30: 23-6-1
Last 10: 7-3-0
Last 5: 2-3-0
2022 New York Rangers
Last 30: 19-10-1
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 2-3-0
2022 Carolina *Entered on 6 game winning streak*
Last 30: 17-9-4
Last 10: 8-2-0
Last 5: 5-0-0
2022 Tampa Bay
Last 30: 16-12-2
Last 10: 7-3-0
Last 5: 4-1-0
First Round Losers
2024 Toronto
Last 30: 18-10-2
Last 10: 5-4-1
Last 5: 1-3-1
2024 New York Islanders
Last 30: 17-9-4
Last 10: 8-1-1
Last 5: 4-0-1
2024 Washington
Last 30: 17-10-3
Last 10: 4-4-2
Last 5: 4-1-0
2024 Tampa Bay
Last 30: 18-9-3
Last 10: 5-4-1
Last 5: 2-2-1
2024 Los Angeles
Last 30: 18-11-1
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 3-2-0
2024 Vegas
Last 30: 14-14-2
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 3-2-0
2024 Nashville
Last 30: 20-7-3
Last 10: 4-5-1
Last 5: 3-1-1
2024 Winnipeg *Came in on 8 game winning streak*
Last 30: 19-10-1
Last 10: 8-2-0
Last 5: 5-0-0
2023 Los Angeles
Last 30: 19-7-4
Last 10: 5-5-0
Last 5: 2-3-0
2023 Winnipeg
Last 30: 14-14-2
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 3-2-0
2023 Minnesota
Last 30: 18-5-7
Last 10: 5-3-2
Last 5: 2-2-1
2023 Colorado
Last 30: 23-5-2
Last 10: 8-1-1
Last 5: 4-0-1
2023 New York Rangers
Last 30: 17-8-5
Last 10: 5-2-3
Last 5: 2-1-2
2023 New York Islanders
Last 30: 17-9-4
Last 10: 5-4-1
Last 5: 3-2-0
2023 Tampa Bay
Last 30: 12-14-4
Last 10: 4-6-0
Last 5: 1-4-0
2023 Boston *Entered on 8 game winning streak*
Last 30: 26-4-0
Last 10: 9-1-0
Last 5: 5-0-0
2022 Dallas
Last 30: 17-10-3
Last 10: 5-3-2
Last 5: 3-1-1
2022 Nashville
Last 30: 15-12-3
Last 10: 4-4-2
Last 5: 1-2-2
2022 Los Angeles
Last 30: 16-10-4
Last 10: 6-3-1
Last 5: 4-0-1
2022 Minnesota
Last 30: 21-5-4
Last 10: 8-1-1
Last 5: 4-1-0
2022 Washington
Last 30: 16-11-3
Last 10: 4-4-2
Last 5: 1-3-1
2022 Pittsburgh
Last 30: 15-12-3
Last 10: 5-4-1
Last 5: 3-2-0
2022 Toronto
Last 30: 20-7-3
Last 10: 7-2-1
Last 5: 3-1-1
2022 Boston
Last 30: 20-9-1
Last 10: 6-4-0
Last 5: 4-1-0
ThG
Only person hear who gets “hot’ is when they obsess about PD incessantly.
Talk about your clinical Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder
The hockey God
What is this ‘big word’ usage day ?
You are confusing the feeble minded, low IQ posters here !
NAM
He is the PD NAMBLA LV club president
Pistol Pete
A 24 year-old would be a “boy” to you probably. A desirable one no doubt lol.
Pistol Pete
Thanks for that mammoth effort Ken. Most/many but not all here are appreciative of your good work. Definitely worth a study. Heading down the stretch is no time to slump!
Pistol Pete
So for Ken’s last 30 games premise we currently stand 14-8. No shot at the 2023-24 tear but still a chance for a respectable last 30. Anyways, play these last 8 like a contender…just win!
Pistol Pete
Neglected the OTL’s. My bad. Make that 14-3-5. Quite a rosier than 14-8!
Another revision yes but credit me for making the effort in the first place unlike one certain personality that inhabits this board under about at least five aliases!
Pistol Pete
Stay tuned everybody for the inevitable next Donald J Trump (dumb as Trump himself….and Donald Trump is pretty damn dumb by this time) “update”!
TS
Pretty clear: gotta have momentum+confidence on the up-tick going into Playoffs. Mojo is a real thing, and winning is EVERYTHING.
Pistol Pete
I attended the EDM game and was overall happy with the play even if period 2 went less than ideally. If we keep playing at that level we should be able to take the division but yeah we want/need to play top shelf down the stretch beginning tonight vs. the Jets.
ThG
that explains your under valued comment, you cheap bastard didn’t get your monies worth !!
knights fan in minny
Petro back in tonight
Tyler Durden
All the resident trumptards here pretty quiet after Trump tanks the stock market.
That fucking piece of shit who BANKRUPTED CASINOS now owns the 2 biggest stock market drops in history.
But go ahead and keep telling us what a genius he is
Ps, knights fan in minny GFY
knights fan in minny
fuck you faggot trump will win all the time