Despite Win Streak Prediction Models Have VGK’s Cup Chances At Season Low

On October 31st, MoneyPuck.com gave the Golden Knights a 93.4% chance to make the playoffs. Today, their projection model gives Vegas a nearly identical 93% chance. However, MoneyPuck’s playoff odds are currently showing Vegas with a season low 5.4% chance to win the Stanley Cup.

VGK’s MoneyPuck Cup % By Date

• Preseason: 8.9%
• October 19th: 9% (Points % = .833)
• October 31st: 9.1% (Points % = .682)
• November 30th: 7.6% (Points % = .600)
• December 14th: 10.1% (Points % = .661)
• December 28th: 8.7% (Points % = .625)
• January 1st: 6.1% (Points % = .592)
• January 13th: 5.4% (Points % = .614)

Since the new year, Vegas has earned nine of 12 points available and are riding a four-game win streak. According to coach Bruce Cassidy, his players second half mentality will be focusing game-by-game.

We need to check aggressively and continue to be urgent in those areas to get pucks back. The game will fall into place, so that will be our whole second half challenge now because we need to make up a few points. Players aren’t thinking about April, they’re just not… so we got to make sure we’re grounded and worried about the task at hand. -Bruce Cassidy

Similar models have Vegas close to MoneyPuck’s estimate. Hockey-Reference’s future projections share the same 4.7% chance for the Golden Knights to win their franchise’s second Stanley Cup championship.

A major reason for the percentage decrease is the historic run going on in Colorado. The Avalanche are on a record-breaking pace and projection models are going haywire because of it. MoneyPuck has Colorado with 10.8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Whereas, Hockey Reference protects the Avalanche of having a mind blowing 27% chance of being the last team remaining.

It’s not like the projection models have only singled out the Golden Knights. Not only has Vegas dropped in model projections, but so have the Edmonton Oilers and LA Kings. All three have a 4-5% chance of reaching their ultimate goal. The Oilers had a 2% chance in late November but have only risen to 4.9% as of this week. Like Vegas, Edmonton had one of the highest model percentages to start the season.

EDM’s MoneyPuck Cup % By Date

• Preseason: 9.3%
• October 19th: 9.6% (Points % = .417)
• October 31st: 6.9% (Points % = .542)
• November 30th: 2.3% (Points % = .519)
• December 14th: 3.7% (Points % = .545)
• December 28th: 4.1% (Points % = .564)
• January 1st: 5.2% (Points % = .561)
• January 13th: 4.9% (Points % = .574)

Here’s the rub. The league, the players, and the fans are all aware that Colorado will be tough to handle in a seven-game series. However, records get wiped clean, and all projection models stop computing in mid-April.

You want a prediction? Here’s a simple projection: whichever team wants to hoist the Stanley Cup; Vegas, Edmonton, Dallas, Minnesota, Carolina or Florida will most likely have to slay the beast in Colorado first.

It’s possible, just ask the 2021 Golden Knights.