Pavel Dorofeyev has been lighting the lamp with regularity this season, and it couldn’t be coming at a better time for his future bank account. The 25-year-old former 3rd round pick is set to become a restricted free agent (RFA) with arbitration rights, which means he’s primed to cash in on what will likely be his second straight 30-goal season.
Dorofeyev has signed three contracts in his time with the Golden Knights. The first was a standard entry-level deal, which paid him the max allowed by the CBA, including a few performance bonuses that he did not hit. The second was a one-year $825,000 deal following his first true stint in the NHL, in which he scored seven goals in 18 games. He battled through injuries that season but still managed a strong 13 goals in 47 games, setting himself up nicely for his final RFA contract before arbitration.
That one came in at two-years $3.67 million for an AAV of $1.835 million. It represented about 2% of the salary cap for a player who has gone on to score 61 goals in 139 games, leading all Golden Knights by a wide margin and good for 18th in the entire NHL, one goal ahead of Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid and two in front of Auston Matthews.
There’s simply no way around it: Dorofeyev is in for not just a raise, but the most significant bump in pay for any Golden Knight ever.
Like in real estate, one of the best ways to project a future contract is via comps. The same way a 3-bedroom 2.5-bath house in Summerlin is compared against others, Dorofofeyev’s 81 goals and 129 points in 206 career games will be measured against others who have posted similar numbers in the NHL.
The best resource for doing this is AFP Analytics, a consulting firm that parses through the data the exact same way NHL agents do in order to come up with reasonable contract projections.
They have presented two options for Dorofeyev’s next contract: a short-term deal and a long-term deal.
Long-term: 6-years, $8.465m AAV
Short-term: 2-years, $5.649 AAV
The long-term deal would represent 8.14% of the Golden Knights’ cap in 26-27. That’s similar to what Tomas Hertl, Shea Theodore, and Noah Hanifin are currently taking up. It would put Dorofeyev in line with many of the other 30-goal scorers in the NHL and it would lock him in Vegas through 2032.
The short-term deal is extremely interesting for the Golden Knights as it would continue to give them flexibility to add to the roster while having the leading goal scorer under a decent contract. The problem is that when it expires, Dorofeyev would become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) and would be able to be courted by all 31 other teams. That would likely mean an even more significant jump in pay if he posts a few more offensively productive seasons.
Of course, Vegas has done well convincing their own players to take a bit less to stay in Vegas and that may well happen once again here with Dorofyev, but with arbitrating rights in his back pocket, his next contract is going to cost The Creator a pretty penny.
**You can find all of AFP Analytics contract projections here.**
NAM
The guy can score, but his negatives really eat into his positives. I think for 8+ million a year you need to bring more of a net gain to the table than I see here. You should be able to put an 8 mil player on a line with lessor players and get ok results where that player can drag guys with him. I don’t see that here. Its the opposite. Doro doesn’t score 5×5 with good line mates and excels on the PP, but with an all-star cast around him and his role well defined. He disappears in the playoffs. 8 mil, especially for this team, needs to get you guys that compete in the playoffs.
Not intending to be a hater here. Just don’t see the benefit for this team at 8 million. Realistically the team isn’t even getting it done well with him at 2 million. Not all his fault, but removing another 6 million isn’t going to improve it.
Emmanuel
5*$7M
JB
This is crazy! Canada comes from behind in third. Theo gets the tieing goal! Then Canada wins it with about 35 seconds left! What amazing games. Ok, now, the USA boys must win to make our dream game happen with win later today. Go USA!
JB
Yes! We are going to get THE game. A game I think all of North America has been waiting for since the 4 nations a year ago. USA vs Canada for the GOLD! Can’t wait for Sunday! Let’s go USA!
TS
Canada had their hands full all game, but USA had it pretty easy— hope this carries over to the Gold Medal game Sunday!! GO USA!!!
Jeff
I wouldn’t call Sweden “pretty easy”.
TS
Jeff, I was referring to the U.S. ability to score, not the Swede’s ability to compete.
Richie-Rich
The CAP situation is going to be tricky. We could be saying goodbye to Wild Bill I think. After several years of Stone being injured, he is finally producing. It’s a bit early to be talking contracts, but the Olympics is giving us that opportunity.
Emmanuel
He would be a great checking 3C but at a discount.
I dont see a team throwing $ at him due to injuries & just turning 33YO.
KnightWatch
Olympic News – USA wins the semi! Our man Jack with an assist and a goal.
Set your alarm clocks
Sunday 5:10am on NBC – USA vs Canada for the GOLD!
Hopefully Tage Thompson is able to go. Taken out as “precautionary” in the 2nd.
VGK News – McNabb, Saad & Sissons all practiced today.
Emmanuel
Thx on the update.
Pistol Pete
We are going to have gold in the house!
Pistol Pete
Presumably the Americans among us will be rooting against Stone, Marner and Theodore. Ah the irony!
USA needs Hellebuyck to be at his best in the biggest moment something he has struggled with. Hopefully not this time!
Pistol Pete
I am not even going to think or worry about Pav money until the season is over.
TS
Hey, where have you been, PP? Workin’ and watchin’ the Games, i’m guessing…
Tough to cheer against our Canada boys, and i’d be happy for them if they won, but ……GO USA!!!!
Larry
KEN, on your twitter account you talk about missing and watching the biggest game of the decade.
I have not missed and most definitely did watch the biggest game of the decade on June 13 2023, a celebration that can hopefully be replicated this coming Sunday, and again sometime this coming June!!
Steve
For the most part I got to agree with that statement.
hdbiker7851
If US wins the gold they may want to send a thank you and other consideration to the player who took Crosby out with a dirty hit away from the play – as I recall that guy is a favorite of Jason’s. A hit like that could very well end a player’s career. Gudas was the villain – a real dirt bag.
JB
I don’t think Crosby will make the difference either way! But I hope he is alright and plays! Same situation with the kid (sage?) for US!
hdbiker7851
Thompson – I think that is who you are referring to. He plays for Buffalo in the NHL if I am not mistaken. Got the makings of a great game. Lot’s of Knights involved.
JB
The Canada players and coach on the Knights got the bragging rights last year after the 4 nations. It’s time the US players get that this year!
Canada
Not sure that Dorofeyev is worth more than 5 mil but as has been said lets see what he does in the playoffs if he digs in he could be a difference maker and worth the big bucks . I have watched him stick his nose into it a bit more so maybe he is aware he needs to play heavier . Love that he’s a shooter and has that quick release. Great to see the the U.S. women’s team win gold they really out played our Canadian gals . The score did not do the US girls justice, our girls played their butts off but they are not currently in my opinion at the same level as the US team, well done . US mens have their work cut out for them, on paper its Canada but a hot goalie and one mistake and the game could go either way . No golf tomorrow ,pancakes and Hockey ,Go Canada.
JB
Yea, early game. Of course Go USA for me, but I just want to see a great hockey game. Canada does seem a slight edge, but I think the US boys are ready to avenge that game of last year!
KnightWatch
USA GOLD!
…Great game another OT thriller
JB
Well, sometimes the better team on the night doesn’t win. Domination by Canada BUT our boys find a way for the GOLD! Hellybuck (sp) was just amazing. The hero of the game no doubt! Oh wow. I’m drained. USA gold metal winners!
KnightWatch
Yes, Canada definitely dominated the game.
At least losing some teeth fired up someone (Jack H) and made it well worth it.
Hellebuyck for sure the reason it wasn’t silver for US.
vgk21
USA ! USA !
Hellebucyk is this generation Jim Craig
and Jack Hughes is this generation Mike Eruzione
great game.
knights fan in minny
Instant classic boldly with a hell of a goal Hellebuyck with a brilliant performance The boys are gonna be tired after a night of partying Best of all no injuries
TS
Kfim, DITTO!! What a game!! 41 saves by Helly, was that a record, i wonder? Waiting 46 yrs to win the Gold was unreal! It’s awesome to watch our own VGK players be part of this epic, historic win!!
knights fan in minny
A big goose egg on the penalty kill that’s amazing
knights fan in minny
Herb Brooks is up in heaven smiling today
Larry
Hill for Hellebuyck straight up with Winnipeg retaining the difference in salary….one can dream after GOLD was captured!
knights fan in minny
Throw in saad to
TS
Larry, you, me, and every hockey fan in America is thinking the same: how can we get Helly on OUR team??
Larry
TS, the one thing I relish most in USA’s victory over Canada is to see THAT look on the face of #97, and I thank the producers for the 2 or 3 times they cut to him sitting on the bench as we were all celebrating !
Pistol Pete
Hellebuyck finally lives up to his regular season standard. Happy for Eichel, Hanifin and the rest of Team USA. Exciting hockey even if the Olympics comes down to a bunch of NHL all-star teams grinding it out. Not like the pre-pro era (pre-1998) where the Russians and Czechs were actual full-time (state-sponsored) teams not that that was fair for the amateur Olympics which is was not. Looking forward to the regular season resuming. Hopefully the Olympic season was inspiring for the eight VGK players in it because we have a very demanding road trip coming up.
Emmanuel
Czecks + Slovaks. They were legit good & had a great rivalry w/USSR.
TS
PP, The former Soviet block nations, as well as the former East Germany, and more recently, the Chinese, have cheated the Olympic system for decades, not only in regard to the PRO players they used when rules barred them, but also in all the Juicing/ aka Steroids these countries clearly used, both with men and women, esp. blatant In the Summer Games
.Remember all the female swimmers/ track athletes that looked and performed like MEN? After testing was required, these countries manipulated / cheated that system , too.
These countries dominated the Olympics for years before the IOC finally got smart and put the hammer down on the cheating.
Pistol Pete
Jack Hughes has some teeth missing the little dude. Brother Luke the only one of the three with some size.
knights fan in minny
Look for the Wild to make a run at Jack Hughes at the trade deadline
Emmanuel
After trading Hill & Saad im not sure what we would have left to trade…….
JB
I realize Wild bill may not be coming back from his injury, but what about Howden? Has anybody heard anything, Ken?
Vic
MacKinnon out there saying silly things instead of admitting he was knocked off the puck for the winning goal, and he failed to solve Hellebuyck. He should be a sport like his buddy Crosby.