(Photo Credit: Ken Boehlke, SinBin.vegas)
Seven games into the postseason, Jonathan Marchessault was goalless. He had just two points and the questions were certainly starting to fly both internally in his own head and externally from people like me.
Then, the light switched on, and off he went. Marchessault potted 13 goals in the next 13 games and ended the playoffs with 25 points. He scored three game-winning goals, posted a natural hat trick in the crucial Game 6 in Edmonton, and was held off the scoresheet just twice in VGK’s final 15 playoff games.
For all this, he was awarded the Conn Smythe trophy becoming the first undrafted player to win the honor of playoff MVP since Wayne Gretzky.
Now, we look forward. With his name engraved in the most legendary individual trophy in hockey (and finding somewhere to put it), Marchessault will enter 2023-24 with some massive expectations on his shoulders. Every single night he’ll be referenced as Conn Smythe-winner by the opposing broadcast and he’ll have to live up to it.
Former Conn Smythe winners typically see a bit of dropoff from their magical playoff run the next regular season, but the numbers are not stark. (See each individual’s stats at the end of the story.)
Of the last 10 Conn Smythe-winning skaters, eight saw a decrease in points. The largest was Justin Williams’ .45 point drop per game. Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith, and Cale Makar saw dropoffs of about .30 points per game while Sidney Crosby (the first time he won) and Patrick Kane actually increased their points per game the following season.
Marchessault finished the postseason with 1.14 points per game. Even if he were to experience the most significant dropoff the following season of any recent Conn Smythe winner, he’d still be on track to post .70 points per game or 57 points… exactly what he recorded last season.
As for goals, which Marchessault scored .59 per game in the playoffs. There’s an equal chance based on the last 10 winners of that number going up, down, or staying the same. Four went up, four went down, and two matched their total exactly.
If Marchessault matches his pace from the postseason, he’ll breeze by the VGK record of 43 on his way to 48. He only needs an increase of .02 goals per game to hit 50!
Marchessault’s most in a season is 30. To miss that number, it would mean he would have to see his goal-scoring decrease by .22 goals per game, which would be more than any of the previous seven forwards to win the award.
However you slice it, we can expect big things from the reigning Conn Smythe winner next season.
Cale Makar – 2022 winner
Playoffs: .40 GPG, 1.45 PPG
Following Season: .28 GPG, 1.1 PPG
Victor Hedman – 2020 winner
Playoffs: .40 GPG, .88 PPG
Following Season: .17 GPG, .83 PPG
Ryan O’Reilly – 2019 winner
Playoffs: .31 GPG, .88 PPG
Following Season: .17 GPG, .86 PPG
Alexander Ovechkin – 2018 winner
Playoffs: .63 GPG, 1.13 PPG
Following Season: .63 GPG, 1.10 PPG
Sidney Crosby – 2017 winner
Playoffs: .33 GPG, 1.13 PPG
Following Season: .35 GPG, 1.09 PPG
Sidney Crosby – 2016 winner
Playoffs: .25 GPG, .80 PPG
Following Season: .59 GPG, 1.19 PPG
Duncan Keith – 2015 winner
Playoffs: .13 GPG, .91 PPG
Following Season: .13 GPG, .64 PPG
Justin Williams – 2014 winner
Playoffs: .35 GPG, .96 PPG
Following Season: .22 GPG, .51 PPG
Patrick Kane – 2013 winner
Playoffs: .39 GPG, .83 PPG
Following Season: .42 GPG, 1.00 PPG
Jonathan Toews – 2010 winner
Playoffs: .32 GPG, 1.32 PPG
Following Season: .40 GPG, .95 PPG
THE hockey GOD
no 81 will be traded next year while he still has some value
the FO has been savvy in moving veterans when they need
to be moved. Too many examples to dwell on them here.
michael
u think a lot of urself but ur just a pathetic human seeking negative attention cause thats the only kind u can get! Sorry mommy and daddy didn’t give u any growing up that caused this!
THE hockey GOD
hypocrisy of socialist retards exposed
THE hockey GOD
When Trump was president:
Gas was cheap.
You didn’t have to take out a loan to buy groceries.
You didn’t have to work multiple jobs to pay your rent.
You could send your son to school without fearing that he would come back as your daughter.
We had border SECURITY.
We had no SELF-INFLICTED illegal immigration crisis.
And I could buy fluorescent lightbulbs.
I miss President Trump.
Richard Evans
Well, half of what you said was correct. Not sure of what that has to do with Vegas Golden Knights. But then half of what you always say tends to make me think “What the F*** is that guy smoking?”
THE hockey GOD
richard evans
I get high on Jesus
HOCKEYDIVA
Hahaha , Iiked it when you mentioned not worrying about your son coming home as a girl.
I’m still scarred by watching JENNER WIN his gold Olympic metal and the image he projects NOW
THE hockey GOD
i hear ya DIVA
some people here “get me”. the snowflakes don’t.
Friends of Lucifer
This fuckin snowflake!
You’re always good for some absolute mouth-breathing takes.
How does that orange ass taste? Is it more Depends or Diet Coke?
Morons like you love to disregard the world changing event (that your favorite spray tan bumbled in a major way) that led to, you know, the entire planet experiencing the same circumstances…idiot.
Do us all a favor a take some more ivermectin and chase it with cyanide
knights fan in minny
fuck off lucy
knights fan in minny
get lost miraslov ass clown
Jailbird
It’s very misleading to try and predict a players next season production after a good playoff. Playoffs are a different animal altogether from regular season. The intensity of the players is not something they can sustain during the regular season. Opposite, that’s why players that had a so-so regular season can “out perform” in the playoffs.
knights fan in minny
no cup hangover
Jailbird
Don’t think we’ll see a big hangover, but might have some effect from the cup in the first couple months or so.
Dfwdave
RE. No doubt bro. The should take one of his 100 weapons chamber a round and end it. Damn dude.
THE hockey GOD