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Can The Golden Knights “Find” Three Goals Per Game?

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

After Wednesday’s loss to the St. Louis Blues, Vegas coach Pete DeBoer said his team needed to find a way to score three goals per night. Averaging 3+ goals per game almost guarantees an NHL team, and specifically the Golden Knights, a victory or at worse an overtime loss.

In 2020-21, the Golden Knights were 35-2-1 when they scored three or more goals in a game. Also, ten games ended in an overtime period or shootouts capturing at least one point.

So let’s pretend the Golden Knights will be without their weapons for 20 games. It could be more, hopefully less, but the length of time Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone are on the shelf won’t matter for this exercise.

The idea here is to try and add up averages to see if it’s actually possible for this lineup as currently constructed to reach three goals consistently.

Thanks to DeBoer, he solved the first part of the equation for us.

We can all agree the Misfit line will need to average a goal per game. If not, scoring three will be next to impossible. +1

So where can Vegas find some emergency offense?

Dadonov – Stephenson – Roy

Chandler Stephenson has been an unsung hero since his arrival. With Vegas he’s averaged 0.35 points per game, 0.15 more than he averaged in Washington. Obviously, Stephenson is at his best in between Pacioretty and Stone but now he has to produce without his stout linemates. If the 27-year-old can use his speed up ice he should create opportunities for Evgenii Dadonov and Nic Roy. A few good offensive rushes a game and the current second line should be a factor each night.

Stephenson can facilitate but he’ll need Dadonov at his best to impact the scoresheet. In 2018-19, the Russian winger was close to a point per game player. He ended the season with 28 goals and 17 power play points. If Dadonov can revive those numbers DeBoer would confidently call on the Stephenson line when the Misfits needed some rest. Roy’s speed and size should complement his mates and may benefit by his opponents focusing on others. Based on career bests, the second line trio is a 0.65 goals/points per game line. Matching their nightly averages is highly ambitious but in the absence of Pacioretty and Stone 0.65 per game would be an enormous boost for the ailing Golden Knights. +0.65

*1 + 0.65 = 1.65 Potential Goals Per Game*

Krebs – Patrick – Kolesar

It’s time we start calling the present third trio as the Wild Card line. As long as they are together, it’s impossible to handicap a line of three inexperienced kids. Nolan Patrick and Peyton Krebs are former first-round picks, and Keegan Kolesar was selected in the third. Chances are they are a year away from their talent breakout and becoming a true problem for opponents.

Although it’s a small sample size all three players share similar points per game averages. When breaking down their production, the Wild Card line could create 0.30 goals/points per game. However, that number could be way low due to the limited ice time and chances. Optimistically, the third line can grind out 0.35-0.40 goals per game. For now, let’s give them .35. Even if they shuffle the middle-six, there should be a goal per game there to be had. +0.35

*1 + 0.65 + 0.35 = 2 Potential Goals Per Game*

Now, let’s dig deeper and find another goal.

Howden – Janmark/Leschyshyn – Carrier

Sure, there are some uncertainties with the bottom line and realistically VGK’s coach won’t have high expectations on a nightly basis. Which forces DeBoer to look elsewhere for one more red light. +0.10

*1 + 0.65 + 0.35 + 0.10 = 2.10 Potential Goals Per Game*

Defense

Before getting into contributions from the defense and special teams, this fuzzy math is starting to look like it’s a real possibility Vegas can squeak out three a night. Especially, when Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore are hovering the blue line waiting for the puck. Adding together their averages, we can expect 24 goals over an 82 game schedule. The remaining four defenseman have their hands full defending so it’s unrealistic to expect much more. +0.34

*1 + 0.65 + 0.35 + 0.10 + 0.34 = 2.44 Potential Goals Per Game*

Power Play

The Golden Knights power play is a continuous work in progress. If the players and coaches finally figure it out DeBoer won’t be sweating out a third goal. But… if it keeps going the way it has been, it’s only going to serve as a negative. +???

1 + 0.65 + 0.35 + 0.10 + 0.34 + ??? = 2.44 Potential Goals Per Game

Lehner

Of course DeBoer would rather three guaranteed goals but maybe his team won’t need them every night. When goaltender Robin Lehner is sharp in net he can lead the Golden Knights to a handful of tight 2-1 or 1-0 games. Lehner may end up being the most valuable player during Pacioretty and Stone’s time off.

Final Sum: 2.44 Goals For Per Game

The final tally certainly shouldn’t be written in stone but the conclusion to this exercise is scoring three goals per contest will be a challenge for the current Golden Knights lineup.

Let’s hope everything my high school algebra teacher Mr. Mooney taught was incorrect and Vegas ends up recording 3.5 per game.

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35 Comments

  1. THE hockey GOD

    Let’s look at projected starting line up and ages of these players, I see a lot of these players getting NHL level experience . Which is good tactic at beginning of season. I wouldn’t be focusing so much on win column now, but on playing better as a cohesive, defense first mentality. Then see which players to move forward into NHL as season progresses.

    krebs 20
    no 15 (i can’t spell his name but his dad was awful good NHL player) 22
    hague >>>>>>>22
    kolesar 24
    whitecloud 24
    coghlin 23
    no 42 russian F/d 24
    roy 24
    howden 23
    patrick 23
    no 46 rondberg 23

    This is a very young average age for team, I think only one other team would beat it in NHL.

    one
    step
    at
    a
    time

    then one step BEYOND !!
    patience
    discipline.

  2. vlad

    Great idea!! Krebs on the 3rd line?? Laughable

    How did it work out putting him on the ice last game when it was tied?? Once again another MINUS

    How does a player how led the whl with the WORST plus/minus manage to get called up? Even the 2 games he played for the HSK he was on the ice for every goal scored against them

    And how many shots does he get a game??? Not even 1 !!! Combine that with his brutal plus/minus record

    And Mcrimmon drafts him in first round??

    Clearly someone has pictures of someone with a sheep

    • THE hockey GOD

      we get it , you don’t like krebs, never did, never will.

      Then again, a handful of NHL games is hardly a statistically significant sample size for MOST REASONABLE PEOPLE to make a FAIR judgement.

      Why don’t you give the 20 year old kid more of a chance before hating on him ?

      • vlad

        Is winning the goal of teams in the NHL?

        Whats next? playing 12 year olds?

        The AHL is for giving chances

    • It’s ok to wear costumes Ken.

      Dude what are you talking about? Krebs was a +11 in 24 games in the WHL last season. That isn’t anywhere near bad. +/- isn’t even that great of a stat. He lead the WHL in points and assists and was second in power play goals.

  3. vlad

    At some point someone is going to wake up and take notice how mcrimmon along with de bore have absolutely gutted the work ethic and culture of this team

    Every game things have slowly gotten worse and worse

    Nice to see Gallant tied for first in the Met division his year …hmmm

    • THE hockey GOD

      see my first post above, he obviously made a new franchise a lot YOUNGER in their short existence in the league. He got rid of old shitz like MAF, Nozek (29, near 30), Reaves (33) and replaced them with , an average, much younger players. Players with character. Patrick and Howden were their youth team’s captains.

      Why don’t you give them a chance before spewing hate ?

      • Pistol Pete

        Just so!

      • vlad

        see it for what it is…. not what you dream it is

        Moving Reeves decimated the 4th line…. who’s taking his place? Krebs? as he batted around like a cat toy?

        • THE hockey GOD

          reeves was slowly than a fat lady crossing the street with a 90 second timer on it, and you know it. Reaves stopped being a tough guy when teams that needed a momentum rush would challenge him to a fight which more often that not was their wake up call.

        • Daryl

          Sorry, but Reaves had to go

      • Daryl

        How old is Petra?

    • knights fan in minny

      3 games in first place big deal its a long season

      • vlad

        everyone sweeps these games under the carpet until the 1-3 games of the season and panic sets in wishing these early games weren’t pissed away

        Gretzky covered this exact topic in detail on TNT the other night…. he’s dead right

        • THE hockey GOD

          that is not what he said, he said it’s along season and better to get the slow start behind them.

          boy you can’t read, and you can’t listen either, and from your earlier post you can’t even get the numbers on jersey’s players correct.

          I see the problem here.

  4. FG

    I think the key will be gold helmets. VGK isn’t likely to be good for the next month or so, so at least be interesting.

    • THE hockey GOD

      yes the reflection and glare will blind the other team’s eyes they won’t be able to see the cheerleaders in the stands let alone the little black flying disc!!

  5. Tim

    Every so often we get a new poster or an old poster with a new handle that just likes to rattle everyones chain looks like VLAD is the latest to grace us with his presence. I think we got the message you hate the front office, DeBoer, and Krebs. You’ve got to come up with some new schtick your routine has gotten old.

    • vlad

      truth hurts

      easier to ignore a problem than fix it

      • THE hockey GOD

        still waiting for truth from your posts, which are full of hate and evil; not much on injuries or hockey sense

        • knights fan in minny

          i think vlad the mad wanted to see the first year team and coach to stay together for years thats my take

  6. knights fan in minny

    it could get ugly tonight lets hope not i would like to see the back up in net

  7. Herby

    The coming Games will tell if PDB is a good Coach or not….most interesting Phase in VGK history.

  8. Tim

    I think Krebs is more of a passer then a goal scorer kind of like Stephenson who works well with Stone and Patch. Matching Krebs with Patrick and Kolesar who can’t score is a waste of time. For all the forwards we claim to have very few can score. Do you really think the following can score Howden, Janmark, Carrier, Patrick, Kolesar, Leschyshyn. That puts all the Pressure on the Misfit line and the Stephenson, Dadonov, and Roy line. If Martinez is out that leaves Petro, Theadore and maybe Hague to do the scoring because McNabb, Whitecloud, Coghlan for sure have no chance to score. I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think so but time will tell.

  9. Pistol Pete

    Anyone have any stats on number of or frequency of multi goal games for the Misfits? Probably pretty hard to come by. I can surmise this: there have been many and the Blues game was very nearly one of them. In any case, we need them now!

  10. Galdom

    To get three goals a game, Dadonov is the key. Would help if he returns to his Florida form. Hoping Nolan Patrick can emerge. Peyton Krebs might still be one year away. Which wouldn’t be unusual although you wouldn’t think that from reading comments in this blog. if the whiners actually took a minute and researched who was drafted after Krebs they would see that nobody is really contributing at the NHL level yet as it is way too early. But it’s much easier and lazier to just complain and be negative.

    • Ulf

      To name just two contributors after Krebs: Shane Pinto OTT and Nils Höglander VAN already making an impact.

  11. Richard Santomauro

    You have to be kidding me! This group below might combine for .1 goal per night.

    Krebs – Patrick – Kolesar
    Howden – Janmark/Leschyshyn – Carrier

    So, what we are looking at is <2 goals per night – period, barring the rare night when the planets all align and there is a blue moon out.

    If Stone and Patches are out for 20 games then realistically we are looking at going 8 and 12 during that time span. So, realistically, best case scenario our record will be 9 and 14 and 4 Dec. VGK just isn't better than the 12 teams we should lose to during the next 20 games. There is no way this team can average 3 goals per game with the current roster. Defensively the team has been extremely weak and got lucky in game 1. Game 3 could have been a lot worse had Lehner not been at his very very best, which is quite rare. In fact, I think that was the best game I have ever seen him play since he became a Knight. The chances of him playing at that level consistently are zero.

    Let's take a look:

    10/22 EDM – L
    10/24 NYI – L
    10/26 COL – L
    10/27 DAL – L
    10/29 ANA – W
    11/01 TOR – L
    11/04 OTT – W
    11/06 MTL – W
    11/07 DET – W
    11/09 SEA – W
    11/11 MIN – L
    11/13 VAN – L
    11/16 CAR – L
    11/18 DET – W
    11/20 CBJ – L
    11/22 STL – L
    11/24 NSH – L
    11/27 EDM – L
    12/01 ANA – W
    12/03 ARI – W

    • Tim

      Richard I think your optimistic at 8-12. Like I said after this next 4 games unsought the Ducks game could be a game changer and I don’t mean in a good way. With John Gibson in goal the Ducks could win any game at anytime.

    • Daryl

      You think they beat Seattle in round 2?

      • Rob S.

        No, they’re not going to win another game all year. Hasn’t Bad Vlad made that clear?

        • Bad vlad

          Well well well…..how did that work our. Turnover by krebs and draisital buries one on the way to a oilers win….

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