Step right up, pick three, any three!
The Golden Knights have hit a bit of a rough patch injury-wise, especially when it comes to the third and fourth lines. Over the course of the last month or so we’ve seen pretty much everyone play with everyone else.
Now, Tomas Nosek is set to return, which means for the first time in a while All Star head coach Gerrard Gallant will have to make decisions along the bottom six.
The plan for tonight is to run out the lines of Alex Tuch/Cody Eakin/Oscar Lindberg and Ryan Carpenter/Pierre-Edouard Bellemare/Tomas Nosek. Thus breaking up the recently successful Tuch/Bellemare/Carpenter line.
Everyone has their own opinions on who should be playing with whom, so we decided it’s time to put some numbers to the opinions. Have fun with this one…
| TOI | CF% | SF% | GF | GA | SCF% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 456:00 | 49.23 | 50.30 | 19 | 18 | 51.12 |
| 21 | 641:55 | 47.96 | 50.54 | 21 | 27 | 49.22 |
| 24 | 536:43 | 50.48 | 51.92 | 13 | 19 | 52.69 |
| 40 | 73:13 | 53.79 | 53.16 | 3 | 6 | 55.56 |
| 41 | 432:22 | 53.05 | 52.30 | 13 | 14 | 55.61 |
| 89 | 530:37 | 50.25 | 51.43 | 19 | 16 | 53.06 |
| 92 | 361:13 | 50.47 | 50.26 | 11 | 14 | 53.83 |
| 13 w/ 21 | 314:13 | 49.19 | 50.88 | 11 | 14 | 50.00 |
| 13 w/ 24 | 65:42 | 46.27 | 45.45 | 2 | 4 | 42.03 |
| 13 w/ 40 | 0:55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| 13 w/ 41 | 29:51 | 50.85 | 50.00 | 2 | 0 | 55.17 |
| 13 w/ 92 | 24:28 | 45.83 | 27.27 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| 21 w/ 24 | 170:16 | 50.17 | 54.61 | 2 | 7 | 49.14 |
| 21 w/ 40 | 3:39 | 54.55 | 33.33 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| 21 w/ 41 | 20:06 | 40.91 | 47.62 | 1 | 0 | 45.00 |
| 21 w/ 92 | 27:48 | 46.67 | 47.06 | 0 | 0 | 51.61 |
| 24 w/ 40 | 11:46 | 50.00 | 63.64 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| 24 w/ 41 | 173:40 | 56.88 | 60.48 | 4 | 4 | 62.25 |
| 24 w/ 92 | 115:04 | 50.45 | 54.24 | 3 | 5 | 56.31 |
| 40 w/ 41 | 58:19 | 57.80 | 55.93 | 3 | 4 | 59.62 |
| 40 w/ 92 | 8:51 | 52.17 | 61.54 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
| 41 w/ 92 | 301:40 | 52.77 | 52.01 | 9 | 10 | 56.76 |
| 13 w/ 21 w/ 89 | 245:51 | 50.31 | 52.81 | 9 | 10 | 52.85 |
| 13 w/ 21 w/ 24 | 47:27 | 43.48 | 42.59 | 1 | 4 | 30.95 |
| 40 w/ 41 w/ 89 | 30:51 | 64.52 | 73.53 | 3 | 1 | 71.43 |
| 21 w/ 24 w/ 89 | 104:36 | 53.25 | 61.84 | 1 | 2 | 58.82 |
| 24 w/ 41 w/ 92 | 94:42 | 54.02 | 59.30 | 2 | 3 | 63.29 |
Numerically, the most successful line offensively is the Tuch/Bellemare/Carpenter line, but the sample size is rather small. That being said, the line Gallant is going with, Tuch/Eakin/Lindberg has been very good in possession, but the scoring has yet to come (just one goal in 104:36).
This will be the first time Nosek, Carpenter, and Bellemare have been together, but any time Nosek and Bellemare have been very good, especially considering a majority of their zone starts are in the neutral or defensive zone.
Play around with that chart, and see what you can find. Personally, I’d like to see Tuch/Bellemare/Carpenter and Lindberg/Eakin/Nosek, but what do I know, I’m not the front-runner for the Jack Adams award.
Christopher Green
I’m digging the statistical approach to an almost-not-easily-quantified decision process. It’s hard to throw “gut feeling” into a blender, right?