The Golden Knights are not where they are used to being at this point in the season. Despite still holding a position squarely in the playoff picture, sitting 2nd in the Pacific division, VGK’s 78 points in 71 games is by far the worst output in franchise history.
Naturally, this has led to the unrelenting question of, why?
The first place most people turn to dig deeper into what makes a team great or is causing them to struggle is the fancy, advanced analytics. That data screams that the Golden Knights have one very clear problem. Goaltending.
Vegas currently holds a Top 5 place in expected goal share with the #2-ranked expected offense (xGF) and #11-ranked expected defense (xGA). The goaltending sits at #31 with a whopping -26.2 goals saved above expected. (See those numbers here, courtesy of HockeyStats.com)
It’s extremely easy to take these numbers and jump to the conclusion that if the Golden Knights received average to above-average goaltending, they’d be one of the best teams in the league. This concept is also appealing because it feels so easy to fix.
However, the conclusion lacks important context, and that’s been displayed clearly over the last 14 games since the Olympics when VGK have received average to above average goaltending, yet are still 4-7-0.
It’s all about framing.
Watch, I’ll frame the numbers differently to show why it’s not goaltending but goal scoring that has been the main problem for VGK this season.
But, before I do, understand that the conclusion I’m about to prove is also not the end-all, be-all for the Golden Knights. You’re going to read these numbers and say, “wow, if they could just score more, they’d be one of the best teams in the league,” which is remarkably similar to the conclusion above about goaltending. We’ll get to the true conclusion later.
Ok, here we go with some stats.
Last night in Dallas, the Golden Knights scored three goals to beat the Stars. Each of the last seven times VGK have scored three or more goals they have won the game, a perfect 7-0-0. Meanwhile, they are winless when failing to score three in each of the last nine games, 0-9-0.
It’s not just a recent phenomenon, though. Since Christmas, the Golden Knights’ overall record is 15-17-4. They are 15-3-2 when they score three goals and 0-14-2 when they don’t.
Over the whole season, VGK are…
23-0-4 when scoring 4 or more
8-6-4 when scoring exactly 3
1-19-6 when scoring 2 or fewer
The league average for goals scored per game this season is 3.06, 214 goals in 70 games. For simplicity’s sake, let’s just call it three. So, scoring exactly three is considered average, more than three is above average, and less than three is below average.
When the Golden Knights receive above-average goal scoring, they have posted a points percentage of .958, or 46 of the possible 48 points.
When the Golden Knights receive below-average goal scoring, they have posted a points percentage of .154, or 8 of the possible 52 points.
Finally, when the Golden Knights receive league-average goal scoring, they have posted a points percentage of .556, which is slightly better than their actual points percentage of .549.
The team has been built to score goals. Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Pavel Dorofeyev, Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore, Noah Hanifin, and Rasmus Andersson are all considered above-average offensively and they make up most of VGK’s salary cap. Yet the Golden Knights have received above-average goal scoring in just 38.5% of games while receiving below-average goal scoring at almost the same rate (36.6%).
Notice that not once has there been any mention of goal against. When framed this way, it simply has not mattered. Score more than league average, win. Score less than league average, lose. And one of those two things has happened a whopping 75% of the games VGK have played this season.
As I said before, though, do not take these numbers and run with the overarching conclusion that the team does not score enough and that’s 100% to blame for why they aren’t comfortably leading the worst division in the history of the NHL.
Compared to past Golden Knights teams, there’s a way to frame this team as worse in literally every single area of the game aside from special teams.
The reality is that the blame falls on everyone. Offense, defense, and goaltending have all contributed to the Golden Knights sitting 18th in points percentage with just three weeks remaining in the season.
Boiling it down to one particular position, or worse, one particular player, is not only narrow-minded, it’s factually incorrect. (And don’t even get me started on blaming the head coach.)
JB
As I’ve said I think Butch is a top coach! But, sometimes the message to players gets a little stale. Don’t know if that is the case here, but with a team of veterans it happens?
Kevin Gullette
Watched the reaction after Smitty’s goal and that’s a hallmark of VGK! Sadly, that’s not always happening as of late. They just seem…”off” as it relates to excitement. Not sure if it’s the pressure? Missing key leaders? But to me it’s been kind of noticeable
Rrale
Does anyone think Hill is the 12th best goalie in the NHL? His paycheck says he is (6.25 million). All the losses are not his fault in the games he has played in. Schmid makes 875K a year. Again, not all the losses in the games he has played are his fault. Hart makes 2 million a year.
Do the VGK need to score more consistently, YES. Do the VGK need more timely saves, YES. Is this the Head coaches’ fault, NO.
Emmanuel
Hill is not a starting G.
He has a grand total of ONE season with more than 35 starts.
Though he is career wise a solid (21-40 overall) G talent wise, he hasnt shown he can carry the workload.
My biggest question is: are all the G’s bad or is this a system problem?
Note that save % is down league wide, so it may be a case of all of them having below average seasons.
JB
We can’t blame Hill for the size of his paycheck. That falls squarely on management. He parleyed a hot 15 or so games into very nice salaries. I never blamed the team for giving that first new contract to him after the cup. But the second one was just crazy. We can only hope he finds some magic again for 20 games in the playoffs?
TS
Rrale, absolutely!!!
hdbiker7851
Ken all your stats and gymnastics means you spent a great deal of time composing this article, but the facts remain if the goalie can’t stop more pucks than the boys can put in the net it’s a moot point. Their ability to score or not score decreases every time when they are forced to play from behind because of poor goal tending. Vegas does not have a goalie capable of winning a game when those in front of him take the day off which unfortunately has been the case way to often. It’s as much a mental thing on the forwards when they have to play from behind. The goal McNabb scored yesterday was a surprise for Dallas as that is never expected from the Knights particularly McNabb splitting the defense as he did. He actually did a better job of it than the forwards ever do.
knights fan in minny
That was a thing of beauty by Nabber
JB
Yea, love Nabber. Been such a great player for the Knights !
TS
Heck, yeah!!!!
Ken Boehlke
I don’t understand how you can still hold this opinion after the stats that were presented. The entire season, with all 4 goalies, when VGK score 4+ goals they have won every single game except for 1. Thus, if they simply score 4 goals, they win… no matter what has happened with the goalie.
How in the world can it be all the goalie’s fault if that is the case?
DeezNutz
It’s always been about scoring.
Why do all the top players get paid the most? Scoring..
If defense was the most important aspect of the game then McNabb would be making the big bucks.
Teams that can’t score goals can’t win no matter how terrible their goalie is.
Emmanuel
How about the Devils & Kings Cup winners?
Low scoring/brutal defense.
NAM
The two line pass and the neutral zone trap made that whole era of hockey hard to watch. It wasn’t so much that those teams won with low scores as much as it was the rules of the game allowed those teams to smother and bore their opponents (and fans) to absolute death. NJ was the trap masters.
Deeznutz
Why did we lose in game 7 to Dallas a few years back? We lost because both Marchessault and Jack missed wide open nets.
Why did team Canada lost to USA? Because MacKinnon missed a wide open net…
vgk21
several important details and nuances need to be addressed also.
1- Shot suppression is the big new shiny toy in the league.
2- the Vgk do NOT have a lot of goal scorers. They have pass first guys like Jack, Marner, and Stone… only Dorofeyev and Hertl are shoot first and PP goal type guys. Thus, you put shot suppression by the opponent, and Vgk pass first factors together, and you’ve got a Vgk goal scoring shortage.
3- and you also have to shoot into the upper corners of the net to score in the Nhl, to beat a lot of butterfly goalies who are taking away the bottom of the net. and the Vgk are piss poor when it comes to shooting upstairs.
and Hill is having a shit season DESPITE the shpt suppression, so no amount of blame shifting can hide that fact. he is 24 points below Schmid in save % and Hill is 37 points below the league average.
and his stupid 6 year contract is on McCrimmon, and so is the lack of shoot first goal scorers, and the oversupply of fancy perimeter passers.
Rrale
IMHO VGK need to score 5 or more goals per game to win with the goalies they have. Not all the games but most of the games.
I have not given up hope they can make a deep run, look at first year. I do not believe they can win the cup this year. With the salary cap problems, the team has I doubt next year. I did like the lines the team used last game.
Go Knights Go.