Are True Number One Goaltenders Necessary in 2024?

Is Adin Hill a true number one NHL goaltender? Sportsnet doesn’t believe so. However, the Canadian syndicate isn’t high on many starting goaltenders, so Hill shouldn’t take offense.

Sportsnet’s List Of True Number One NHL Goaltenders

• Sergei Bobrovsky: 58 Starts, 36 Wins, 6 Shutouts, 2.37 Goals Allowed Per Game, .915 Save Percentage
• Connor Hellebuyck: 60 Starts, 37 Wins, 5 Shutouts, 2.31 Goals Allowed Per Game, .921 Save Percentage
• Jake Oettinger: 53 Starts, 35 Wins, 3 Shutouts, 2.72 Goals Allowed Per Game, .905 Save Percentage
• Juuse Saros: 64 Starts, 35 Wins, 3 Shutouts, 2.86 Goals Allowed Per Game, .906 Save Percentage
• Igor Shesterkin: 55 Starts, 36 Wins, 4 Shutouts, 2.58 Goals Allowed Per Game, .912 Save Percentage
• Ilya Sorokin: 55 Starts, 25 Wins, 2 Shutouts, 3.01 Goals Allowed Per Game, .908 Save Percentage
• Jeremy Swayman: 43 Starts, 25 Wins, 3 Shutouts, 2.53 Goals Allowed Per Game, .916 Save Percentage
• Linus Ullmark: 39 Starts, 22 Wins, 2 Shutouts, 2.57 Goals Allowed Per Game, .915 Save Percentage
• Andrei Vasilevsky: 52 Starts, 30 Wins, 2 Shutouts, 2.91 Goals Allowed Per Game, .900 Save Percentage

Going into the 2024-25 only nine starting goaltenders are considered elite. To be fair, it’s hard to argue with their list.

A decade ago, in the 2014-15 season, 16 goalies posted a save percentage of .920 or better while appearing in at least 35 games. This past season, a single stopper — Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets — met that criteria. Zoom out, and you’ll see that, from 2009-10 through 2018-19, an average of 9.6 goalies per season played 35 games and went over .920 in that decade-long stretch. In the past half-decade, beginning in 2019-20, that average drops to 3.6. –Ryan Dixon on Sportsnet.ca

Golden Knights fans know full well that a top-tiered goaltender isn’t necessary when it comes to raising a Stanley Cup banner. The entire hockey world witnessed the Golden Knights win 16 playoff games using a tandem in 2023. Hill wasn’t a true number one to begin the season and wasn’t one to start the playoffs. In the end, Vegas and their supposedly league-average goaltending secured the franchise’s first league championship. It’s not uncommon for NHL clubs to ride a quality netminder into hockey history. Since the Golden Knights were established, Jordan Binnington, Brayden Holtby, Darcy Kuemper, and Matt Murray all led their teams to victory. None of them would have qualified for Sportsnet’s true number one ballot.

Even the top stoppers tend to find themselves in more of a crease share than ever before, and it’s clear our definition of what makes a true No. 1 goalie requires redefining from 10 years ago and certainly from the era just before that, when the likes of Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, and Henrik Lundqvist would routinely appear in upwards of 75 games for their clubs… As is the case with No. 1 centres and defencemen — just because there are 32 clubs in the league doesn’t mean there are that same number of real No. 1s. –Dixon on Sportsnet.ca

Left Wing Lock’s VGK Goaltending Projections

• Adin Hill: 48 Starts, 25 Wins
• Ilya Samsonov: 34 Starts, 16 Wins

This season Left Wing Lock has Hill projected to start 48 games, which is quite optimistic. Vegas’ top goalie reached his career high with 35 starts last season and had just 25 in 2022-23. Reaching 48 starts is probably the plan for everyone, including Hill, but he’ll need to rewrite history to make it happen.

VGK’s planned backup, Ilya Samsonov, is penciled in for 34 starts this season according to Left Wing Lock. It’s below his full-season average but only by five starts. If we know anything about the Golden Knights’ goalie position, there’s a good chance the former Capitals and Maple Leafs goalie starts closer to 40 games. Injuries and productivity in will determine his usage.

This is what our Top 10 Goalies list looked like last year, who will enter the Top 10 this year?

Find out tomorrow at 6pm ET/3pm PT on NHL Network! #NHLTopPlayers pic.twitter.com/kU2wpU0Xtf

— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) August 7, 2024

The bottom line is neither Hill nor Samsonov will be considered true number one goalies but as Sportsnet pointed out, not many are. Most NHL teams are in the same boat as the Golden Knights, closer to a tandem system than a clear-cut starter.

Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy and his players proved it’s possible to win a championship with multiple goalies. They even eliminated three true number ones in the process. It was tough to get through Hellebuyck, Oettinger, and Bobrovsky, but VGK made it tougher for everyone else to beat Laurent Brossoit and Adin Hill.