So says stat wizard and computer nerd Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic.
Make no mistake, the Vegas Golden Knights will probably be bad, very bad even, but the degree of badness might have been oversold. -Luszcyszyn
The computer model Luszcyszyn uses spit out a range of between 75-91 points for the Golden Knights, which in turn gives them an 18% chance of making the postseason, a 2% chance of winning the division, and a nearly unfathomable 1% chance of making it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final.
The main component to the “success” is Vadim Shipachyov.
The 30-year-old forward had 76 points in 50 games last season and was above point-per-game in the two seasons prior to that. The KHL to NHL translation factor is 0.74, so in NHL terms that’s equal to 92, 67 and 67 point seasons. Last year is an obvious outlier, especially with him scoring on 27.1 per cent of his shots, and he won’t have as many talented linemates in Vegas, but it’s not outlandish to think he can score 55 to 60 points next season for Vegas. -Luszcyszyn
Here in Vegas, the outlook isn’t quite as rosy. William Hill sports books currently list the Golden Knights with a season point total of 69 and have them as a 9:1 underdog to make the playoffs.
At the end of the article, Luszcyszyn readily admits the Golden Knights are nearly impossible to project and that it wouldn’t be surprising at all if they underperform his computer’s model, but for the optimist crowd, 91 points looks pretty darn good, right?
All the computer models and predictions don’t take into account the excitement and motivation that playing in a new city, on a new team, with new teammates, and in front of a city that has been drooling for professional sports brings to the team. It doesn’t take into account the us against the world mentality that could be created in the room if the leadership group comes together as I believe they will under Gallant. It doesn’t take into account just how great of a coach Gallant actually is and how he has a history of taking under valued players and bringing them together as a surprisingly competitive team with an incredible work ethic which I believe, in a league with such parody, is heads and tails more important than any other single stat.
Those things alone should be good for 10 to 15 wins on the low side. I really believe that this team in it’s first season competes for a playoff spot. I know it’s not a good thing as the future of the franchise is in next years draft class and the youth movement and I’m totally on board with that direction. I just don’t think that you can tell players not to compete so we have a great draft next summer and I certainly don’t think that’s what Gallant will be preaching in that locker room.
I’m probably wrong and it’s wishful thinking but I’ll tell you this, if I’m right I am the only one I’ve seen on here saying this and I will be yelling “I TOLD YOU SO” next June at the top of my lungs.
Parody = parity BTW…
These preseason projections are nice and all, but everything is going to change so fast they are barely worth the HTML they are written on. Neal, Marchessault, and Perron are all UFAs at the end of 2018, so the question of who gets traded when and for what is unanswerable in these metrics.
In January if 3 of our top 4 forwards are playing on other teams and all we have to show for it are 2nd and 3rd round 2019 picks we are going to be far short of expectations more conservative than this. At 50 puts, I’m not sure if I’d take the over or the under. Forget 83 points by the end of the 2017-2018 season, this team might not yet have 83 all-time points by the end of the 2018 calendar.
Alternately, I absolutely DO believe in 3/6. If that is really the team mission statement, then 2 or 3 of the above guys should be signed to 3-6yr deals. Those future picks do nothing in helping the Knights make the playoffs in 2020, and very little in winning the Cup in 2023. If that’s truly this team’s goal, we need to maximize the value of each roster member over those 6 seasons. Maybe a 2019 2nd round pick will help us in 2025-2026, but that is years past when we have been promised a Cup.
EVERY MOVE over the next 6 years needs to be examined through the filter of 3/6. How does this move improve our chances of making the playoffs in 2020 and winning the cup in 2023.
What McPhee does with the above players will be an indicator of whether the 3/6 pledge is meant to be taken seriously, or if it is just another thing Foley says that we shouldn’t have believed in the first place.
How can you have a 18 percent chance of playoffs with 83 points?
The computer model is run like 50,000 times or something. Then it spits out averages. The average point total was 83, but they got many more and made the playoffs 18% of the time in other simulations.
So the main component to success was Shipachyov leaving. You forgot to type leaving lol