It’s prediction season again, and while the SinBin crew will be holding ours until the next podcast, we’re starting to see some trickle in from a few of our favorite sources.
We’ll start with our absolute favorite source for prognostication, William Hill!
There’s been a bit of a shift in the overall numbers since we first highlighted them a month ago. VGK are still picked to make the playoffs and finish 3rd in the division but their point total has dipped a full point to 95.5 and the “Make the Playoffs” prop is all the way down to -220 (it was almost -300 at open).
The props on the Golden Knights to win the division have dropped too, to +380, while Vegas stands as 20:1 underdogs to win the Cup.
There are a bunch of new individual player props on the board too. Here are a few.
Jack Eichel Goals Scored
Jonathan Marchessault Goals Scored
Mark Stone Goals Scored
Phil Kessel Goals Scored
Logan Thompson Wins
Finally, William Hill has listed a special monthly prop on October points for the Golden Knights. Vegas play 10 games with five at home and five on the road. The only repeat opponent is Winnipeg. William Hill has the line set at 10.5 with the under as the slight favorite.
Like it or not, the oddsmakers are not expecting the Golden Knights to come flying out of the gate.
Also, a pair of excellent computerized projection models have released their first look at this season’s predicted standings.
We’ll start with the more optimistic of the two.
Evolving Hockey's team point projections for the '22-23 NHL season are now live!
This year's overview can be found here: https://t.co/LgfAP9VY7M
— Evolving-Hockey (@EvolvingHockey) October 3, 2022
98 points? We’ll absolutely take that. The 75% chance to make the playoffs is obviously a bit lower than we have been used to in the past, but it’s still strong enough to expect it to happen.
On the other hand (good thing it’s not final yet)…
This is not final – still waiting on opening day depth charts and making some last-minute changes.
But here's the current standings projection from the WAR Roster Builder. pic.twitter.com/gxztj0ICmI
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) October 3, 2022
Yikes. VGK would miss out on the playoffs by three points using JFresh’s model and would actually finish 10th in the West. It calls for a shockingly balanced Pacific division, which is quite the opposite of what we’ve seen for the first five years.
We’re still waiting for a few of our other favorites (Dom at The Athletic and MoneyPuck) but the early numbers definitely seem to stand in line with how most view the team. The team themselves, of course, not included.