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Tag: William Karlsson (Page 1 of 4)

It Felt Like It Was Happening Again; Then It Didn’t

Say it ain’t so, ref! (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Here we are, 8:40 into the 1st period at T-Mobile Arena. The Golden Knights are buzzing, creating chances left and right, and defending about as well as they have all year, when Shea Theodore skates through nearly the entire Buffalo Sabres team to score a highlight toe-drag goal. The arena is going crazy, the Golden Knights are celebrating, and that nervous feeling that’s been plaguing Vegas early this season feels like it’s fading away, but then, the referee skates to the red line, turns on his mic and says “Buffalo is challenging if the play is offside.”

Oh no.

Watching the replay, it was clearly offside as Max Pacioretty entered the zone early. That feeling of euphoria, gone.

We knew right away the goal was offside as soon as we looked down. It wasn’t a big deal. We knew it was coming. -Gerard Gallant

When something like that happens it all part of the game, you’ve got to regroup from it. It’s still an unbelievable play by Shea, it’s still a highlight. -Brad Hunt

Wrong little guy skating to the box, but you get the point. (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Ok fine, no big deal, right? But then, minutes later, Tomas Hyka took a hooking penalty, and all the good the Golden Knights had done in the 1st 10 minutes was ready to disappear into thin air if the penalty was not killed off.

It’s an all too familiar story seven games into the season, and a feeling every Golden Knights fan had the second the penalty box door opened. Here we go again.

Yeah, it felt like that was our luck at that time, but you know, what can you do? It’s in the past and all you can do is battle forward and I’m proud of the way we did that. -William Karlsson

That’s exactly what the Golden Knights did. They killed that penalty (and like a thousand others), they kept battling through the misfortune, and they made it change. Jonathan Marchessault scored a power play goal, Cody Eakin raced for a shorthanded one, and Karlsson even got on the board for the first time this year as well.

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MAX PACIORETTY (F) SIGNS 4 YEAR EXTENSION AT $7M AAV

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

Moments after being traded to the Golden Knights, the former Montreal Canadiens captain signed a four year, $28 million extension in Vegas.

Pacioretty had one year left on his previous contract so is now signed with the Golden Knights for the next five seasons through 2022-23.

His contract has a limited No Trade Clause that beings in 2019-20 that will allow him to veto a trade to 10 teams.

Zero Golden Knights Among NHL 19 Top 50 Players

Following a season in which the Golden Knights had 12 players hit career highs in points, 10 set career highs in goals, and as a team made a run to the Stanley Cup Final you would think individuals from one of the best story in sports would start getting some recognition.

No respect at all I tell ya. (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

The geniuses at EA Sports don’t agree. They released their top 50 ranked players for the upcoming NHL 19 game, and there’s not a single Golden Knight to be found.

No William Karlsson, who finished 10th in MVP voting. No Jonathan Marchessault, who scored eight goals and tallied more than a point per game in the postseason. No Nate Schmidt, who was the key cog in helping the Golden Knights stifle the Kings, Sharks, and Jets in succession. And worst of all, no Marc-Andre Fleury, a three-time Stanley Cup winner, that put together the best season of his career and carried an expansion team to the Final.

Instead, players like Jakub Voracek, Ryan Suter, Jonathan Toews, and Frederik Andersen made the list.

In fact, 10 goalies ranked higher than Marc-Andre Fleury. Ten!

The game drops on September 14th, when we’ll learn the ratings of all Vegas players, but until then, we leave you with the one Golden Knight who did have his NHL 19 rating revealed.

You’re not alone Nick, the disrespect for the Western Conference Champions is real.

A Study On The Expected Regression Of William Karlsson

The name William Karlsson and the word “regression” have been joined at the hip this offseason. Following his breakout season scoring 43 goals, posting a +49 rating, winning the Lady Byng, and finishing top 10 in both Selke and Hart, it seems like everyone assumes a decline in 2018-19.

Personally, I’m not a fan of assumptions, I prefer facts, or at least stats I can package as something resembling facts. So, I set out to see if regression for William Karlsson is indeed inevitable, and if so, how major it may be.

The normal way to project a player’s statistics in the NHL (or any sport for that matter) is to look at that player’s career history. However, with Karlsson that doesn’t really work. To begin his career he was seeing minimal ice time, playing on the fourth line, and had defensive responsibilities similar to those of Pierre-Edouard Bellemare’s on the Golden Knights. In Vegas, he’s the top line center, is used in all situations including the top power play and penalty kill units, and plays on a line with two high-level offensive players. His stats in Columbus are essentially hogwash because his role has changed so much, but at the same time, simply using his one mega season in Vegas feels like a bit too small of a sample size to project his future.

Actually kind of surprised we even have a picture of him NOT scoring. (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

So, I had to find another way. The way I chose to go about it was to examine the follow-up seasons for players who have had years in which they put up numbers similar to Karlsson’s.

What I found, in short, is that there’s basically no chance William Karlsson repeats his incredible 17-18 season. Literally, every player (except one) who scored 40 goals, every player who shot better than 20%, every player with a massive +/- rating, every player with a high shooting percentage, and every player with impressive defensive numbers saw their statistics decline the following year. That’s 47 of 48 players over the course of the last five years.

I’ll prove it in a second, but before you go jumping off the cliff, while the numbers suggest a drop-off, they do not suggest Karlsson’s going to become an average player. Instead, they show just the opposite. Using this method of comparing players with similar statistical seasons to Karlsson, he should be projected to score 35 goals, shoot at around 16%, and stay a legitimate Selke award candidate.

Here’s how I conducted the study. First, I found every season in which a player matched (or led the league) in the best statistical categories for William Karlsson. Those are Goals (Karlsson had 43, 3rd in NHL), Shooting Percentage (Karlsson shot 23.4%, led NHL), Plus/Minus (Karlsson was +49, led NHL), Even Strength Goals (Karlsson had 31, tied for 3rd in NHL), and Defensive Point Shares (Karlsson had 3.5, led all forwards in NHL).

After finding all the players who had qualifying seasons, I looked up what they did in that same category the following year. I added up all of the follow-up season numbers and divided it by the Karlsson-esque season numbers to show the percentage of regression to be expected in each category. Here are the numbers.

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Exactly How William Karlsson Scored Each Of His 43 Goals

Backhand, wrister, deflection, empty netter, you name it, Wild Bill did it. (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

We all fondly remember William Karlsson’s 43 goal season as a glorious collection of one-timers, diving empty netters, and between the legs dandies, but now thanks to TSN’s Travis Yost we know exactly how #71 put all 43 goals into the back of the net on the way to one of the most incredible breakthrough seasons in NHL history.

The numbers are fascinating to read, especially when you look at Lady Byng winner William Karlsson’s chart.

The Golden Knights star center will probably forever be known for this, but according to Yost’s research, Karlsson scored the majority of his goals by wrist shot. Yost found the goal percentages by shot type; backhand, deflection, slap shot, snap shot, tipped shot, wraparound, and wrist shot. As you can see on TSN’s chart, Karlsson has an incredibly lethal wrist shot. The top line center scored 41.9%, or 18 of 43 goals off his wrister.

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Ranking The Top Centers In The Pacific Division

This week the NHL Network ranked the league’s twenty best centers. Lady Byng trophy winner William Karlsson came in at 17th place, not bad for a guy who wasn’t rated in the top 100 last season. Connor McDavid, Anze Kopitar, Ryan Getzlaf and Leon Draisaitl were the other Pacific Division centers to make the NHL Network’s list.

So let’s have some fun and rank the top centers in the Pacific Division.

1. Connor McDavid: There’s not much to write. McDavid has 256 career points in 205 games, averaging 1.22 points per game. The Edmonton center has more points (208), goals created (77), assists per game (.84), and adjusted points (220) than any other player in the NHL since 2015-16. McDavid will continue to remain the top center in the division, and the league for many, many years.

2. Anze Kopitar: Again, this is another no-brainer. The Kings captain has averaged almost a point of game over his career, and put up his best (1.12) PPG average last season. After 12 NHL seasons, the Slovenian continues to get better. Kopitar ended the season with a career-high 92 points, and took home the Selke trophy. Also, he’s a faceoff wizard. Against Vegas in the postseason, Kopitar posted a 60.4% faceoff win percentage. Pretty impressive, considering the puck was in his zone most of the series.

(Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

3. William Karlsson: I battled myself trying to be as objective as possible and at the end of the day, ranking Karlsson third behind McDavid and Kopitar was the only right decision. Most of the players on this list have consistently produced for multiple seasons. However, the overall skill Karlsson showcased leads you to believe he’ll repeat his production from 2017-18.

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WILLIAM KARLSSON (F) SIGNS 1 YEAR EXTENSION AT $5.25M

Just before reaching arbitration the Golden Knights and William Karlsson reached an agreement.

When the contract expires, Karlsson will remain an RFA with arbitration rights.

William had a great year for us and we are excited to now have him under contract for next season. -George McPhee

I’m happy to have my deal and we don’t have to speculate other things. I want to prove that I can do it more than just once. Hopefully I play good and can look at a longer deal in the future. -William Karlsson

4 Golden Knights In Top 100 Of Corsica Player Ratings

Corsica Hockey is one of the best advanced stats websites on the web. They’ve produced a metric that combines stats like Game Score, WAR, and others to make for what they call the “best single number representation of a player’s quality.”

727 NHL players were ranked with 24 Golden Knights making the cut. The top five are Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and Alex Ovechkin.

#81 and #71 are #17 and #54 (Photo by Brandon Andreasen)

The Golden Knights have four players in the top 100 including Jonathan Marchessault (#17/#6LW), Marc-Andre Fleury (#48/#4G), William Karlsson (#54/#18C), and Reilly Smith (#64/#9RW).

The top-rated defenseman for Vegas is Colin Miller coming in at #136 followed by Nate Schmidt and Shea Theodore tied at #153.

The next highest Golden Knights after the first line is Paul Stastny at #145. Erik Haula (#214), Alex Tuch (#232), and Tomas Tatar (#313) all rank outside of the top 200.

Malcolm Subban (#726) is the second to last player in the entire rankings ahead of just Blackhawks goalie Anton Forsberg.

Newly acquired Curtis McKenzie came in at #276, the 11th highest ranked Golden Knight. Daniel Carr (#556) also ranks above five Golden Knights skaters, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare (#567), Cody Eakin (#608), Jon Merrill (#618), Ryan Reaves (#628), and William Carrier (#652). The other new player, Nick Holden, tied Deryk Engelland at #356.

For those still waiting on the blockbuster Erik Karlsson trade, the Swedish defenseman came in at #25, the third-rated defenseman behind Brent Burns and Kris Letang. Oh, and the disaster that is Bobby Ryan ranked #295, which would be good for 12th place on the Golden Knights.

What To Do With William Karlsson’s Contract

Wonder what the Blue Jackets think of all this? (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

While most of the hockey world is focused on Erik Karlsson, the Karlsson Vegas already has might be just an interesting a story this offseason. William Karlsson’s monster season has him in line for a massive raise, but as an RFA, and with just one dominant year in the books, the right contract for both sides could look many different ways.

The 25-year-old Swede scored 43 goals, became a top line center on the Western Conference champions, won the Lady Byng Trophy, and finished top 10 in both Selke and Hart voting. He posted career highs in goals, assists, points, time on ice, shots on goal, shot attempts, shooting percentage, face-off percentage, takeaways, Corsi for, and just about every other advanced stat hockey keeps. It was, in every sense of the word, a career year.

But, it was a career year playing on a new team, in a new situation, with new linemates, a new coach, and totally new responsibility. Moving forward, Karlsson will be expected to play the same role with the same responsibility for the Golden Knights. The question is, how should he be paid?

There are really two ways a deal for Karlsson can go, either a short-term “bridge deal” that would make him an unrestricted free agent in two years or a long-term deal that keeps him with the Golden Knights until he’s into his 30’s. So let’s play the pros and cons game for both sides to illustrate how challenging these negotiations are likely going to be.

Short-term deal

  • Golden Knights
    • Pros: The biggest benefit would be to protect the team against the possibility of last year being an outlier. A short-term deal would allow the Golden Knights to see if Karlsson is closer to the 43 goal scorer or the six goal scorer before they commit major money to him long term. If he’s the same guy, you pay your superstar, if he’s not, you saved yourself against a miserable contract that will be tough to get rid of in the future. Another ancillary benefit is the short-term deal would likely be much cheaper as it’s setting Karlsson up to get paid again in a few years. He’d likely be in the $3-5 million range for the next two years giving the Golden Knights even more flexibility to pull off that big trade everybody’s been waiting for.
    • Cons: The team would be in danger of having their best player be eligible for unrestricted free agency sooner rather than later. That means either they pay him the massive contract he’s worth (assuming he remains 2017-18 Karlsson) or be exposed to the possibility of losing him to another team for nothing.
  • William Karlsson
    • Pros: The more times a player comes up for a new contract, the more money he stands to make. Right now there’s some doubt if 17-18 was a fluke or whether it’s the norm. A short-term deal allows Karlsson to bet on himself, prove it, and then be worth double what he’s worth now.
    • Cons: Regression is probably more likely than not. This may be the only chance he’ll ever have to make $40+ million and be set for life, taking a short-term deal would be passing that up.

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Arbitration For Golden Knights: Good? Bad? Neither?

All three of… (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

The Golden Knights made “news” yesterday by confirming William Karlsson, Colin Miller, and Tomas Nosek have all filed for arbitration. In reality, this isn’t really news at all. However, based on the wide range of reactions we received on Twitter, Facebook, and face-to-face, it feels like a good time to explain how this all works and why the three Golden Knights filing for arbitration is not a good or bad thing for either the player or the team.

In the NHL, when a player reaches the end of a contract they are placed into one of three categories.

  1. Unrestricted free agent (UFA)
    • Any player 27 years old or older
    • Any player with 7 seasons in the NHL
  2. Restricted free agent with arbitration rights (RFA)
    • Younger than 27 years old
    • Meets experience requirement based on age when signed first contract. (10 NHL or AHL games = 1 year)
      • 24-27 years old when signed = 1 year of NHL experience
      • 22-23 years old when signed = 2 years of NHL experience
      • 21 years old when signed = 3 years of NHL experience
      • 18-20 years old when signed = 4 years of NHL experience
  3. Restricted free agent (RFA)

James Neal, David Perron, Luca Sbisa, and Ryan Reaves were all older than 27, so they all became UFA’s.

William Karlsson -20 y/o when signed + 5 years experience = RFA w/ arb
Colin Miller -20 y/o when signed + 5 years experience = RFA w/ arb
Tomas Nosek -22 y/o when signed + 4 years experience = RFA w/ arb
Shea Theodore -20 y/o when signed + 3 years experience = RFA
William Carrier – 20 y/o when signed + 3 years experience = RFA

…these guys scored pretty… (Photo Credit: SinBin.vegas Photographer Brandon Andreasen)

That brings us to the difference between the three categories. In short, the difference is how much freedom a player has to negotiate.

An unrestricted free agent (UFA), as the name suggests, has no restrictions. He can solicit offers from all teams and can sign with whichever one he pleases.

A restricted free agent (RFA) on the other hand can only negotiate with his current team and is not free to leave for a new team. If the team wants to retain the player, he will be extended a “qualifying offer” and must sign it if he would like to remain in the NHL. If the team does not extend the qualifying offer he then becomes a UFA and is free to sign with any team.

(The Golden Knights offered qualifying offers to all of their RFAs. William Karlsson, Tomas Nosek, William Carrier, Colin Miller, Shea Theodore, Teemu Pulkkinen, Philip Holm, Oscar Dansk)

An RFA with arbitration rights has one more step in leveraging a better contract. Rather than being forced to sign the qualifying offer, he can choose to file for arbitration. In other words, he can ask for a raise.

So, let’s go through the steps of the process for RFA’s without arbitration rights, like Theodore and Carrier.

  • Step 1: Team decides if they want to retain each player
    • If yes: Extend qualifying offer
    • If no: Do not extend qualifying offer (Player is released)
  • Step 2: Player signs qualifying offer

That’s it. The player has no negotiating power and is essentially stuck signing the offer. The dollar value of a qualifying offer is determined by the NHL’s Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). The team hands the player a contract and their either sign it or leave the NHL.

The process for RFA’s with arbitration rights, like Karlsson, Miller, and Nosek adds one more step, giving the player that bit of negotiating power. Rather than being forced to sign the qualifying offer, the player can file for arbitration. Arbitration means both sides will present how much they believe the player is worth and then a third party will decide the contract the team and player will sign. Of course, the player must remain with their original team, so the negotiating power is significantly less than that of a UFA who can negotiate with all teams.

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