The world’s greatest sportsbook, and the only sportsbook in the history of the NHL to strike a deal with a franchise, William Hill, has released a bunch of props on the Vegas Golden Knights. Not only do they have the standard “futures” which allow fans to bet on the Golden Knights to win the Western Conference or Stanley Cup, but they’ve now posted individual player props for Vegas players as well.
But rather than just post them, I decided to have a little fun today and actually make picks on them. Plus, at the end of each pick, a confidence level of how certain I am that my pick will be correct. Here we go!
William Karlsson: Goals
This number is pretty spot on to where I expect Karlsson to land this year so it’s actually one of the toughest ones of the group. When we wrote the “Karlsson regression” article the number it spit out was 34.3 goals, so for that alone, I’ll go with the over. I fully expect the Golden Knights top line to once again dominate games on both ends of the rink, and I expect Karlsson to be a major factor in that. However, I think Marchessault is ready to take the step into being the 40+ goal guy while Karlsson will pick up his assist total instead.
Confidence: 2 out of 5
Max Pacioretty: Goals
Over/Under – 31.5
The Golden Knights had just one 30 goal scorer a year ago. That number may rise to two or three, but I can’t say I’m positive Pacioretty will be one of them. That’s not to say I don’t expect Max to have a great year with the Golden Knights, it’s just that 32 goals is a lot to ask, especially when he doesn’t have a clear line to play with out of the gate. He’ll certainly be paired with Paul Stastny, but it might be a revolving door as the third man on that line which will stunt production a bit. Also, Pacioretty and Stastny were brought to Vegas to sure up the defense on the 2nd line. That’ll be as much a focus as scoring, and no one on the 2nd line scored 30 a year ago.
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Jonathan Marchessault: Goals
Over/Under – 29.5
This is the easiest of all of them for me. Marchessault should soar past 30 playing an entire season with Karlsson, Smith, and as a focal point on the power play. As mentioned in the Karlsson pick, I expect a lot of the goals from the first line to shift from Karlsson to Marchessault. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Marchessault ends up closer to 50 than he does 29.5.
Confidence: 5 out of 5
Reilly Smith: Points
Over/Under – 65.5