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Tag: Calvin Pickard

Advanced Stats For VGK Dummies: Goals Saved Above Average

After four advanced stats articles breaking down the prowess of skaters, it’s time to head to the crease and help you further examine goaltenders. The next stat up in our series of Advanced Stats for VGK Dummies is GSAA or Goals Saved Above Average.

For those who are baseball fans, this is essentially WAR (wins above replacement) for goalies. For those who aren’t baseball fans, smart thinking, baseball is boring.

Usually, we first try to explain what the stat is before we get into the formula of how it’s calculated, but this one is a bit convoluted when explained that way that we’ll start by simply saying, GSAA measures individual goalies against the league average goalie. That’s all you need to know, now follow through how it’s calculated.

First, we need to calculate the league average goalie. To do so, we take every save made by every goalie in the NHL and divide it by every single shot on goal over the course of a season.

To simply the numbers let’s use a hypothetical using just one game. Say the first game of the season there are 50 total shots on net, 25 by each team. A total of five goals are scored, so 45 shots are saved. Thus, the league average is 45/50=0.900.

Now, we take an individual goalies stats. Let’s say he gave up one goal on 25 shots, meaning he saved 24.

GSAA = [Shots against x (1 – league-average save percentage)] – goals allowed

So, our goalie faced 25 shots, he allowed 1 goal, and the league average is 0.900.

[25 x (1-0.900)] – 1
[25 x 0.1] – 1
2.5-1
GSAA = 1.5

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Can The Golden Knights Be Blown Out Even With Fleury In Net?

During a recent Twitter war discussion about the Golden Knights’ 2017-18 roster, a comment was made stating something to the effect of “there won’t be many blowouts with Fleury between the pipes.” Immediately the skeptical writer portion of my brain fired off wondering, is that accurate? So here we are now.

It should come as no surprise that Marc-Andre Fleury has been one of hockey’s best goalies over the first 13 years of his career, but it should also not knock your socks off to hear that he’s not the player he once was and there’s a reason the Penguins were willing to part with a 2nd round pick in 2020 for the Golden Knights to select Fleury rather than Ian Cole, Bryan Rust, or anyone else they left unprotected.

From the 2010-2011 season to the 2015-16 season, Fleury’s goals against average (GAA) was 2.34. In 2016-17 it was 3.02. Over the same span, he recorded 27 shutouts in 343 starts. Last year, he had one.

SeasonGSGAASV%SV% Rank
2016-17343.02.90941st
2015-16582.29.92112th
2014-15642.32.92016th
2013-14642.37.91526th

It’s possible it was simply just a down year for a guy who was in a weird situation as the backup to a 23-year-old who stole his job and his 2nd Cup. He also started just 34 games, his lowest (by more than 20) in any non-shortened season since 2007-08 when he was 23-years-old himself.

There’s something to be said about rhythm, flow, and consistency for a goalie, and it’s something he’ll likely get a bit more of in Vegas, but last year was a significant decline for Fleury, and if he plays like that again, Calvin Pickard‘s start numbers are going to increase quickly.

Back to the blowouts thing. I like charts, so here’s another chart.

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