Now that the Golden Knights have players, and will soon begin playing actual games and accruing statistics, we felt like now was a good time to learn the roster, by dumbing down different advanced statistics in the NHL.
Everyone understands goals, assists, points, penalty minutes, and time on ice, but for many hockey fans words like Corsi, Fenwick, PDO, and zone starts send off the instant “too much info, ignore and move on” signal. Since the Golden Knights are probably going to be bad, and the standard stats are likely to all have asterisks next to them with people saying “well someone has to score the goals,” we think it’s best if we use the downtime of July and August to take the stigma away from advanced stats, and get a feel for who the Golden Knights actual have on the roster.
Up first, Corsi and Corsi For Percentage.
Corsi is a statistic that measures the true number of shots a player takes during a game. It was created by an Edmonton Oilers blogger when he heard a GM mention the term “shot differential” but not have concrete numbers to back it up. So, like any good Internet user, he put in the research, came up with the numbers, and created a stat that’s now widely used in the NHL. So what is it exactly?
Corsi = Shots on Goal + Missed Shots + Blocked Shots Against
It’s fairly simple, it’s just all shot attempts. Corsi can be measured for a team or for an individual. For a team, it’s simply all shot attempts. For an individual, it’s all shot attempts by the team while that player is on the ice. So, for every shot, the team gets +1 on their Corsi rating, and five players get +1 on their individual Corsi rating.
Obviously that stat means nothing if not put in context with what the other team is doing. So, each player has a “Corsi For” and a “Corsi Against” rating. Corsi Against is simply a Corsi rating for the other team while a player is on the ice.
Example time! James Neal is on the ice for the opening faceoff. The Golden Knights win the faceoff, and the puck is worked onto Neal’s stick. He shoots, wide (+1). Another Golden Knight picks it up and has a shot blocked (+1), then the other team gets it, shoots and scores (-1). Neal leaves the ice.
Corsi For – 2
Corsi Against – 1
A Corsi For rating is a good barometer of how aggressive and efficient team offenses are while a player is on the ice. Here are some of the most popular Golden Knights’ Corsi numbers from last season. (measured only at 5v5 to keep it simple)
|Player||Corsi For||Corsi Against|
Alright, now let’s put the numbers together in what’s called Corsi For Percentage (CF%). It’s a simple calculation of Corsi For / (Corsi For +Corsi Against). So let’s take Perron.
1005/(1005 + 980)=
Corsi For Percentage may be the best measure of a player’s offensive impact. According to NHL statisticians, a 55 CF% or higher is elite. Here are the top and bottom Golden Knights in CF%:
|Player||Corsi For %||Games Played|
|Player||Corsi For %||Games Played|
So what did we learn from these numbers? Well, the Vegas roster’s CF% across the board is marginal… at best. The top two Golden Knights, Miller and Schmidt, played the least amount of games to qualify (60). (Brayden McNabb had a 60.25 CF% last year, but only played 49 games) The Golden Knights that’ll need to bear the load of offense are all under the 55% mark. Smith, Neal, Karlsson, Lindberg and Perron will immediately take on more responsibility and it will be interesting to see how their CF% numbers are impacted.
It’s possible to get lost in advanced statistics but we’ll target only a few this first offseason. SinBin.vegas is here for you. We’ll move slow on analytics because… ah… well, we’re still learning too.